August 15th, 2015 - ZNFU Weekly Friday Brief (Week #33)

Excerpts from the ZNFU Weekly Friday Brief, Week 33
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There is an inescapable sense of doom in this one ... the combination of uncertainty over ZESCO and the worry about the next season's rainfall pattern leave me with a bit of a sense that the world is tearing loose from it's moorings. This has been abetted by me finding out Sesame Street is headed to HBO this morning; the surrender of this planet to the worship of money.

As usual, if any ... Author's notes in red:

FRA MAINTAINS MAIZE PURCHASE PRICE…

The Food Reserve Agency (FRA) has maintained its maize purchase price for the 2015/16 marketing season at K70 per 50kg bag or K1, 400 /MT.  The agency will be buying a 40kg bag of rice at K60. The agency has further stated that it would start the purchase of grain next week Monday 17^th August 2015. Eligible farmers will be paid over the counter through identified Financial and Banking institutions after presenting official purchase documents as a way of uploading accountability and governance in the use of public resources. 

Public resources are usually released to the farmers after 4 to 8 months if we're going off past performance of the FRA.

ZESCO LTD URGED TO INCREASE EMERGENCY MEASURES

The power outlook from now until the next rainy season remains gloomy. ZESCO revealed at a meeting with farmers held on 13^th August 2015 that participation in load shedding measures to curb demand has to come from everybody. The mines who are currently not being load shed have been engaged by ZESCO and are expected to furnish ZESCO with details on how they will contribute to reducing their demand for power in two weeks because the country’s generation is on the brink of a shutdown.  From the information shared at the meeting, it was evident that a shutdown at Kariba could occur in early October, if the mines maintain a business as usual stance because then only 68.9 days of power (oh snap) is what is available under this scenario. However, with all participating in load shedding including the mines, generation at Kariba stretches into November resulting in 98.5 days of power becoming available. Wow, the reservoirs don't usually start to fill until New Years' ... particularly when the are as silly low as they are now.

  

Going forward, additional power is expected to come from Itezhi Tezhi, 120 MW in early November and in January 2016, 150MW is expected from Coal Generation by the IPP at Maamba while another 150MW is expected to follow in March 2016 from the same source. However, these being new generation plants, the time frames could vary suddenly as circumstances keep evolving.  In addition, 174 MW emergency power has been secured from Mozambique (wait a minute ... isn't Cabora Bassa downstream of Kariba Dam?) and this will be available until December. Meanwhile, ZESCO indicated that a forecast of power (under different scenarios) for Zambia and the region will only be ready by end August, 2014 (2016) although one of the big unknown factors will be the rainfall pattern for this year.

After deliberations, it was resolved that ZESCO should concentrate on importing as much power as it can to cover the deficit and that ERB should look at the pricing mechanism without delay. There was a general feeling that paying more for imported expensive power given the current circumstances is better than the huge costs associated with running generators.  In addition, engage Government to take immediate measures to reduce the cost of diesel by removing the added taxes so that the cost of running generators reduces. Further, the negative impact of load shedding on the agricultural sector should be clearly stipulated to policy makers because poor performance of the agriculture sector has ramifications on the country’s food security and job levels. This would manifest in rising inflation and macroeconomic instability because as production of food gets affected by load shedding, imports will have to fill the gap and this will put more pressure on the exchange rate.

Just a note ... commercial farmers in Zambia produce a great deal of wheat, some barley, and sugar thanks to the wonder of irrigation. However, pivot irrigation schemes require a great deal of electricity, or all that wheat, barley and sugar won't grow. See next heading below ...

With this gloomy picture, all industries should contribute towards reducing the downside risks of the power deficit on the economy by equitably cutting back on demand for power but priority should be attached to safeguarding producing of food for the nation.    ZESCO Ltd was also requested to step up the visibility of their sensitization campaigns on demand side management in order to reduce wastage of power which is observed in many public places. The Union will be engaging the authorities for action in these areas.

AREA UNDER WHEAT CULTIVATION MOVES UPWARDS IN 2015

The wheat commodity committee met yesterday, 13^th August 2015 to review the preliminary wheat and barley production estimates for 2015 and the current marketing season.  Through remote sensing technology, the preliminary totals are under wheat and barley in Zambia has been estimated at 47,829 hectares. The meeting was informed by the consultant engaged to estimate Zambia’s winter crops production through satellite imagery that separation of the wheat from the barley fields would only be done over the next few weeks as the crops approach maturation and hence will emit more distinct signals. It was highlighted that whilst some farms had reduced their wheat area planted due to expectations of load shedding and reduced water levels, there were new entrants in wheat production especially in Serenje area. It was further noted by the farmers that millers and traders had slowed down in their local wheat purchases as only about 60% of the crop was commitment whilst about the same time last year, 97 percent of the crop was committed. Information from the traders indicated that millers are only signing up contracts with traders for wheat delivered up to January on assumption that millers will be allowed to import wheat again. The meeting resolved that in the event of a deficit, the period for any imports should be between 1^st April, and 31^st July, 2015 in order to allow for all the local wheat to be committed.

The meeting bemoaned the decision by government to issue an additional 11,000MT of wheat import permits and urged that the 31^st August 2015 deadline for all wheat imports to cease should be strictly adhered to and import duty should be reinstated on imports. Government should further be encouraged to adopt the stance taken by South Africa where when global wheat prices fall to a certain threshold, the import duty is revised further upwards to avoid injury on local producers. Earlier on in the year, the Minister of Agriculture and Livestock approved the importation of 75,000MT of wheat duty free. As at end of July, ZRA data revealed that about 59,600MT of wheat had been imported into the country. I sometimes wonder if white "milk" bread is creeping up the charts of Zambia's staple foods.

WATER BLUES HITS MASAITI

Water shortage has hit Masaiti district (up in the Copperbelt where rain is usually decent) with most streams drying up. This development has raised fears mostly among livestock farmers who depend on natural streams for domestic and livestock use. In Michinka area a number of wells have also dried up and people are now walking long distances to fetch for this rare commodity.  Farmers in the area have since appealed to the relevant authority to consider drilling boreholes to mitigate the problem. 

KABOMPO FARMERS WELCOME FRA AS BUYER OF LAST RESORT

Farmers in Kabompo district of North-western province are eager to see the start of the marketing season. This follows the announcement of the maize price by the Food Reserve Agency. Farmers that were spoken to say this exercise has long been awaited as most of them had their maize stacked at satellite depots for over a month now. Speaking when he visited the ZNFU office, Kabompo District Farmers Association chairman Mr. George Munyingu said it was good that the FRA maize price has been announced. Mr. Munyingu has since implored the Government to consider buying the commodity from the rural farmers that have limited options of where to sale their produce.  Mr. Munyingu said buying from the rural farmer will help them with secure markets particularly that the only available millers can only be found about 350 Km away.

Mr. Munyingu said transporting one by 50kg bag on such a distance, costs K15.00 making the cost of production to go high. Mr. Munyingu further hopes that the farmers will be paid on time to enable them plan better for next season.

MUMBWA FARMERS URGED TO WATCH MAIZE MARKET TRENDS

The ZNFU Director, Mr. Richard Lisimba has urged farmers to hold on to their maize crop and only release enough to offset their outstanding loans so that they are paid back on time. This was said during the AGM for Mumbwa DFA that was held on 12^th August, 2015. He informed the meeting that due to poor rains experience in the just ended season, the crop yield was also poor thereby reducing the availability of the commodity on the market. He gave an example of Mongu where the commodity was already trading at K90/50kg bag on the open market.

Meanwhile 47 satellite FRA depots in Western Province have been opened that will be used to purchase maize and rice meant for strategic reserves this marketing season. This came to light when the ZNFU visited the Provincial Marketing Coordinator Mr. Lubasi Nawa at his office in Mongu. Didn't know there was any maize to buy this year ... need to find out where these depots are.... do know they're paying around K80 for a 40kg bag of rice.

August 14th, 2015 - The Food Reserve Agency (FRA) floor price set at K70 x 50kg bag

Zambia's Food Reserve Agency (FRA) announced its floor price yesterday, which I heard over the ZNBC news whilst enjoying a meal of rice and beans that was positively resplendent with cooking oil.

To clarify from what mi amigo Dr. William Burke told me years back, it's not really a true "floor price", or more appropriately (?), a "price floor" ... FRA's floor price is more appropriately, a pan-territorial price for a fixed weight / volume, the ubiquitous 50kg maize grain bag purchased by FRA at an approved depot or satellite depot anywhere in Zambia. This year it is ... drumroll ... K70 per 50kg bag, of which they will purchase a supposed maximum of 500,000 metric tonnes.

Hmm. As CSPR says, nothing exciting. No change from last year, especially considering two factors:

1. USD to ZMW exchange rate ... a year ago, the Zambian Kwacha (ZMW) was trading around K6.1 to $1.00, so a bag of maize was worth approximately $11.50. Today it just closed at K7.90 to $1.00 (gulp), meaning a bag of maize is worth about $8.86. This is a kick in the slegs to farmers who don't get subsidized maize support, as fertilizer and seed prices are often estimated in USD and then converted to ZMW. 
2. IT BARELY RAINED THIS YEAR IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. That means we have less maize and the FRA is paying less (in dollars) for it.

However, this is a glimmer of hope for us nut-jobs who harp on about diversification; in its own groping way, the government appears to be backing away from its deathgrip on Zambia's maizescape. It's likely (though no standing government would admit it) that their handling of maize through the FRA has been a significant distortion [read: wandering disaster] of the food market and a spectacular loss of taxpayer's money (state-to-state / donor aid usually lands in research and extension in some garbled way like moi).

We'll see ... my prediction is that maize cropping will drop somewhat depending on how well they stick to the quota of 500,000 MT, and if they are at their usual snail's pace of paying the farmers around December / January. FISP is still intact and far more of an expression of government largesse in rural areas, so it will likely stand politically.  

In the meantime ... maize grain is selling at K110 / 50kg (packed to 60-65kg) on the open market. Guess hunger and Adam Smith are moving the dial on their own ... 

May 18, 2015 - Ministerial Statement on Crop Forecast (14th May, 2015)

(Note: Copied verbatim from Ministerial Statement received 18th May 2015)

REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND LIVESTOCK

MINISTER OF AGRICULTURE AND LIVESTOCK

HON. GIVEN LUBINDA, MP

ON

THE CROP FORECASTING SURVEY FOR THE 2014/2015 AGRICULTURAL SEASON AND THE FOOD BALANCE STATUS FOR THE 2015/2016 MARKETING SEASON

14^th   May, 2015

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN;

IT IS MY PLEASURE TO ANNOUNCE TO THE NATION THE COUNTRY’S ESTIMATED CROP PRODUCTION FOR THE 2014/2015 AGRICULTURAL SEASON AS WELL AS THE COUNTRY’S NATIONAL FOOD BALANCE FOR THE MARKETING SEASON COVERING THE PERIOD FROM   1ST MAY 2015 TO 30TH APRIL 2016.

THE CROP PRODUCTION ESTIMATES THAT I AM RELEASING TODAY ARE BASED ON A UNIVERSALLY APPLIED SCIENTIFIC SURVEY METHOD THAT IS USED EVERY YEAR. THE SURVEY IS JOINTLY CONDUCTED BY THE MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND LIVESTOCK AND THE CENTRAL STATISTICAL OFFICE (CSO) AND COVERS ALL THE DISTRICTS OF THE COUNTRY.

THIS YEAR, MAIZE PRODUCTION IS FORECAST TO DECLINE TO 2,618,221 METRIC TONNES FROM 3,350,671   METRIC TONNES, A DECLINE OF 21.86 PERCENT. THE NATIONAL AVERAGE YIELD RATE FOR MAIZE HAS DROPPED FROM 2.36 METRIC TONNES PER HECTARE TO 1.75 METRIC TONNES PER HECTARE. THIS REPRESENTS A DECLINE OF 26 PERCENT. SMALL AND MEDIUM SCALE FARMERS HAVE RECORDED AN AVERAGE MAIZE YIELD RATE OF 1.68 METRIC TONNES PER HECTARE, WHILST LARGE SCALE FARMERS HAVE RECORDED AN AVERAGE MAIZE YIELD RATE OF 4.36 METRIC TONNES PER HECTARE.

DESPITE THE DECREASE IN MAIZE PRODUCTION, I WOULD LIKE TO INFORM YOU THAT THE AREA PLANTED TO MAIZE AND MOST OTHER CROPS HAS INCREASED COMPARED TO LAST SEASON. AREA UNDER MAIZE INCREASED BY 5.3 PERCENT TO 1,494,451 IN THE 2014/2015 SEASON FROM 1,419,326 HECTARES LAST SEASON. USAGE OF FERTILIZER ON MAIZE BY FARMERS INCREASED BY 12 PERCENT IN 2014/2015 COMPARED TO LAST SEASON. THE USE OF FERTILIZER AND HYBRID SEED INCREASED DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THE QUANTITY OF FERTILIZER AND SEED DISTRIBUTED BY GOVERNMENT THROUGH THE FISP AS WELL AS THE CONTINUING EXTENSION EFFORTS TO IMPROVE CROP PRODUCTION MANAGEMENT PRACTICES.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN

PRODUCTION OF SORGHUM AND MILLET IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 29.7 PERCENT TO 8,123 METRIC TONNES FROM 11,557 METRIC TONNE LAST SEASON.  

PRODUCTION OF MILLET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 4.8 PERCENT TO           31,967 METRIC TONNES FROM 30,504 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.

PRODUCTION OF RICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 48.6 PERCENT TO           25,514 METRIC TONNES FROM 49,640 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.

PRODUCTION OF GROUNDNUTS IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 22.4 PERCENT TO 111,429 METRIC TONNES FROM 143,591 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.

PRODUCTION OF SOYA BEANS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 5.7 PERCENT TO 226,323 METRIC TONNES FROM 214,179 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON. THE NATIONAL YIELD RATE FOR SOYA BEANS HAS DECLINED BY 5 PERCENT. HOWEVER, THE AREA PLANTED TO SOYA BEANS INCREASED BY 11.2 PERCENT. THIS INCREASE IN THE AREA PLANTED TO SOYA BEANS UNDERSCORES MY MINISTRY’S COMMITMENT TO SUPPORTING ZAMBIA’S OILSEED PROCESSING SECTOR.

I WOULD LIKE TO ENCOURAGE OUR FARMERS TO CONTINUE INCREASING THE HECTARAGE UNDER OIL SEED CROPS SUCH AS SOYA BEANS AND SUNFLOWER TO ENABLE ZAMBIA BECOME SELF SUFFICIENT IN COOKING OIL.

PRODUCTION OF SEED COTTON IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 13.7 PERCENT TO 103,889 METRIC TONNES FROM 120,314 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON. HOWEVER, AREA PLANTED TO SEED COTTON DID INCREASE BY 18.4 PERCENT TO 158,619 HECTARES COMPARED TO LAST SEASON.

PRODUCTION OF SWEET POTATOES IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 21.2 PERCENT TO 118,330 METRIC TONNES FROM 150,158 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.

PRODUCTION OF IRISH POTATOES IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY 35.7 PERCENT TO 45,902 METRIC TONNES FROM       33,833 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON. THE INCREASE IN THE PRODUCTION OF IRISH POTATOES IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE LARGE SCALE FARMING SECTOR. I WISH TO ENCOURAGE OUR SMALLHOLDER FARMERS TO ALSO INCREASE THEIR EFFORTS AT CROP DIVERSIFICATION.

PRODUCTION OF MIXED BEANS IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 18.4 PERCENT TO 50,398 METRIC TONNES FROM 61,749 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.

PRODUCTION OF VIRGINIA AND BURLEY TOBACCO IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 24.1 PERCENT AND 36.4 PERCENT TO 19,811 METRIC TONNES AND 6,083 METRIC TONNES RESPECTIVELY

ACCORDING TO THE CROP FORECAST SURVEY RESULTS, NATIONAL CASSAVA FLOUR EQUIVALENT PRODUCTION FOR THE 2014/2015 SEASON HAS BEEN FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 3.6 PERCENT TO  952,847 METRIC TONNES COMPARED TO  919,497 METRIC TONNES OF CASSAVA FLOUR EQUIVALENT, PRODUCED DURING THE LAST SEASON.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN

YOU WILL NOTE THAT THE YIELD RATES FOR MANY CROPS HAS DECLINED IN THE 2014/2015 SEASON COMPARED TO LAST SEASON. THE GENERAL DECREASE IS MAINLY DUE TO THE FOLLOWING FACTORS:

1. THE LATE ONSET OF RAINS WHICH LED TO LATE PLANTING OF MOST CROPS; AND
2. THE POOR DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL WHICH CHARACTERIZED THE SEASON CULMINATING IN A PROLONGED DRY SPELL DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN

THE NATIONAL FOOD BALANCE SHEET FOR THE 2015/2016 MARKETING SEASON BASED ON THE CROP FORECASTING SURVEY  SHOWS THAT THE COUNTRY HAS PRODUCED SUFFICIENT MAIZE FOR BOTH HUMAN CONSUMPTION AND INDUSTRIAL USE. AS ALREADY STATED, TOTAL MAIZE PRODUCTION IN THE 2014/2015 SEASON HAS BEEN ESTIMATED TO BE 2,618,221 METRIC TONNES. THE COUNTRY ALSO HAS A MAIZE CARRY-OVER STOCK AMOUNTING TO 1,345,401 METRIC TONNES. MOST OF THIS MAIZE IS UNDER SAFE STORAGE WITH THE FRA, PRIVATE TRADERS AND COMMERCIAL FARMERS. WHEN THE MAIZE CARRY-OVER STOCK FROM LAST SEASON IS ADDED TO THE MAIZE PRODUCTION FOR THE 2014/2015 AGRICULTURAL SEASON, THE TOTAL SUPPLY OF MAIZE AVAILABLE FOR THE 2015/2016 MARKETING SEASON IS 3,963,622 METRIC TONNES.

FOR AN ESTIMATED POPULATION OF 15.7 MILLION PEOPLE, THE FOOD BALANCE SHEET SHOWS THAT TOTAL MAIZE REQUIRED FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION, INDUSTRIAL USE AND OTHER COMMITMENTS AMOUNTS TO 3,086,854 METRIC TONNES. THE TOTAL MAIZE REQUIREMENTS INCLUDE AN ANTICIPATED NATIONAL STRATEGIC RESERVE STOCK OF 500,000 METRIC TONNES TO BE HELD BY THE FOOD RESERVE AGENCY.

WHEN TOTAL MAIZE REQUIREMENTS ARE SUBTRACTED FROM TOTAL MAIZE AVAILABILITY, THE FOOD BALANCE SHEET INDICATES THAT THE COUNTRY HAS RECORDED A MAIZE SURPLUS OF 876,738 METRIC TONNES.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN;

THE WHEAT CROP FOR THE 2014/2015 SEASON IS CURRENTLY BEING PLANTED. HOWEVER, PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE COUNTRY IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ITS WHEAT PRODUCTION THIS SEASON COMPARED TO LAST YEAR. DETAILED ESTIMATES FOR THE ANTICIPATED WHEAT PRODUCTION WILL BE UPDATED LATER IN THE SEASON.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN;

I WISH TO INFORM THE NATION THAT GOVERNMENT, THROUGH THE FOOD RESERVE AGENCY (FRA), WILL PURCHASE 500,000 METRIC TONNES OF STRATEGIC RESERVES.

LET ME HOWEVER, ENCOURAGE THE PRIVATE SECTOR TO CONTINUE TO FULLY PARTICIPATE IN CROP MARKETING BOTH LOCALLY AND INTERNATIONALLY. MY MINISTRY WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE EXPORT PERMITS TO VARIOUS PRIVATE SECTOR PLAYERS TO EXPORT OUR SURPLUS GRAIN TO REGIONAL MARKETS. THIS WILL BE DONE WITHOUT COMPROMISING NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY. LET ME EMPHASISE THE FACT THAT GOVERNMENT IS KEEN TO SEE MORE PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION IN THE PURCHASING OF GRAIN FROM OUR HARD WORKING FARMERS.

THE FRA WILL IN DUE COURSE, ANNOUNCE THE PURCHASE PRICE FOR MAIZE FOR THE 2015/2016 MARKETING SEASON. THE FRA WILL ONLY COMMENCE MAIZE PURCHASES ONCE THE MOISTURE CONTENT HAS REACHED DESIRED LOW LEVELS. LET ME TAKE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO INFORM THE NATION THAT I WILL SOON BE CONVENING A MEETING WITH RELEVANT STAKEHOLDERS TO DISCUSS AMONG OTHER THINGS, THE WAY FORWARD ON CROP MARKETING FOR THIS SEASON.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN

LET ME CONCLUDE BY ONCE AGAIN THANKING THE FARMERS OF ZAMBIA FOR THEIR CONTINUED HARD.

THIS IS THE OFFICIAL SUMMARY OF THE CROP FORECAST SURVEY RESULTS FOR THE 2014/2015 AGRICULTURAL SEASON. DETAILED RESULTS CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS AND EARLY WARNING SECTION OF MY MINISTRY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL STATISTICAL OFFICE.

I THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION. 

Maize in Zambia, Part 2 - A nation wedded to maize (Post editorial)

Today is Zambia's 48th birthday. I've been around since #40; time flies, but not fast enough.

Celebrated by watering and weeding my garden and resting. We've got three days left of inputs distribution in Kaoma and we are leaving to return there at 4:30am tomorrow morning, so not engaging in any real festivities.

Here's an editorial from the Zambian national newspaper The Post (Tuesday, September 25, 2012):

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A nation wedded to maize

TODAY, we seem to be more dependent on maize for food security than ever before.

Maize is looked at as being the only 'food' and if we don't grow it, we fear we will not have food. Yet we are forgetting that maize is a new food to us. It is not something that has always been there in this territory. It is a crops that was brought to us by the Portuguese - just like cassava and other crops.

This country used to have a variety of crops, of foodstuffs in all its regions. People had a variety of food to eat throughout the day. And they were not dependent on one or two meals of maize nshima every day. There was yam in many parts of the country. We still have sweet potatoes, pumpkins, millet, sorghum and many other crops of foodstuffs. But all these are not considered 'food'; food seems to be only maize nshima. We have all sorts of varieties of rice that can be cooked and consumed in so many different ways. But this, too, is not 'food'.

And there seems to be an entrenched view that maize is the best means of achieving food security. Maize seems to be so important that many politicians fear to touch it because it is politically very sensitive.

As a result, while constantly making reference to the ideals of crop diversification, our main preoccupation seems to be achieving food security using highly subsidised maize production.

There is little effort to creat market for other crops like rice, sorghum, millet and so on and so forth. Diversification away from maize is held back by limited productivity and a lack of lucrative markets for alternatives to maize.

And when it comes to food security, we don't think there is any dispute about the potential of crop diversification about potential of crop diversification as an adaptation strategy. Crop diversification is a sure way of guaranteeing food security and of boosting soil health and improving the nutritional status of our people. Crop diversification is a crucial means of improving the nutritional status of a society wedded to maize nshima.

The earnings for farmers from maize production are declining. And without heavy subsidies, most of our maize farmers would be recording heavy losses and consequently, they would be out of maize production.

As things stand today, maize production is not a profitable undertaking for most of our farmers. People should be provided with alternative agricultural production opportunities that can generate new employment and enhance incomes. Agriculture diversification can contribute to this.

Out over-emphasis on maize production has resulted in low output prices and profitability for maize and has dampened agricultural growth. To reverse this trend, agricultural diversification is needed.

Agricultural diversification is not only important for profitability; it is also a way of promoting dietary diversity. It can enhance the nutritional balance of diet, which improves earning capacity of labour. All these attributes of diversification induce sustainable productivity growth in agriculture, without being exclusively related to the parameter of development.

Agriculture will need bold measures if we are to see a reversal of fortunes. More attention need to be paid to other crops. Spending over US$300 million on subsidising one crop, maize, doesn't make sense. We are not saying people shouldn't grow maize. What we are saying is that maize should be grown alongside other crops. And that maize nshima should be eaten alongside other foodstuffs. It doesn't make sense to eat maize nshima two or three times a day - maize nshima for lunch and maize nshima for supper or dinner. Other things can be eaten for breakfast that we ourselves are producing. We can also eat something else, other than maize nshima, at lunch or supper. Even the Irish don't eat Irish potatoes for breakfast, lunch, supper every day. They eat other things as well. If one travels to East Africa, one will find that the Africans who live there, although they also eat maize nshima, it is not maize nshima they eat all the time. They eat a lot of other things. It is the same for West Africa. But there seems to be a problem in this region. But even our neighbours in Zimbabwe, Botswana, Namibia are not so dependent of maize nshima the way we are. Maize nshima may be an important staple food for them but it's not everything, it is not the only 'food'.

There is need for us to recognise the fact that we have a serious problem in the agricultural sector whose solution lies in recognising the need for crop diversification. There is need to build some consensus towards a shared vision about the nature of this problem, what needs to be done to deal with it, and the likely consequence of taking no action.

Email:              editorial@post.co.zm
Web page:        http://www.postzambia.com

Maize in Zambia - Maize is a national scandal (Reginald Ntomba)

I want to get some contemporary thoughts regarding the maize situation in Zambia that are not my own.

The following is an article published on October 21st by my friend Reginald Ntomba, a political science major who writes a weekly article for the national newspaper, The Post. 

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Maize is a national scandal

By Reginald Ntomba

The fact that maize occupies the positions of 'staple food' and is widely understood to man 'food security' does not justify the colossal amounts of money being spent on it.

According to the Nations Agriculture Policy (2004-2015), food security "means access by all Zambians at all time to enough of the right food for an active and healthy life on a sustainable basis." Nice definition. But in  practice food security means excess maize production.

We grow and store maize much more than we need. Take note that 'store' is an overstatement given the amount of maize that has gone to waste. Our national annual consumption of maize (human consumption, reserves, stockfeed and the brewing industry) is around 2.5 million tonnes. In the 2010/2011 farming season, Zambian produced 3.1 million tonnes of maize. The subsequent season record a six percent drop to 2.8 million tonnes, according to production figure from the Ministry of Agriculture. The carryover from the 2010 / 2011 and the surplus in 2011/2012 left Zambia with an excess of over one million tonnes of maize. We produce so much maize at great expense and then somehow 'discover' we have no storage facilities. The we decide to export some at a loss, while the other rots. Not too long ago, one seniour government official made solemn promise that is not about to be kept: "Not one grain will go to waste this year."

In the 2012 national budget, the government allocated K300 billion to the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) for "strategic food reserve", a synonym for maize purchases. Now according to agriculture deputy minister, Luxon Kazabu, FRA owes farmers in excess of K2 trillion, hence the recent directive to FRA to go and borrow from banks, which loan the government stands ready to guarantee.

In the 2013 national budget, the amount allocated to FRA has not changed. It's still K300 billion. From what is currently obtaining, it's all too clear that going by the amount of maize grown in Zambia, FRA will be in a similar, if not worse, position next year. If FRA can't pay all the farmers who supplied maize from the K300 billion this year when there was a drop in maize production, will the do so next year especially if the beloved 'bumper harvest' occurs?

Isn't it also strange that this year K2 trillion is required just to buy maize yet the total agriculture budget for 2013 is K1.9 trillion? Even more, other sector of the economy are deprived of adequate funding, while colossal amounts are spent of maize the just foes to waste. If the attention and money given to maize is a translation of 'putting our money where our mouth is', then we have spoiled our mouth and is in serious need of discipline.

FRA may not be a perfect institution. But all the makes it look like the bad guy it's not supposed to be. Going by the daily calls for farmers to be paid, FRA is under pressure to buy all the maize we in fact do not need, but which has nonetheless been produced. As things stand, FRA is paying for the iniquities of its forefathers; it's bearing the consequences of bad production decisions. In recent weeks farmers in Kitwe and Solwezi demanded their maize back from FRA due to delayed payments. Some of them even turned militant, compelling FRA chairperson Guy Robinson to warn against harassing FRA workers.

If farmers grew other crops that are bought by the private sector without so much hassle, the would not be waiting for the FRA to come to the rescue. In turn, FRA would not be under so much pressure. Although the government has restated intentions of expanding the Farmer Input Support Programme to include other crops, the focus has largely remained on maize. Our obsession with maize is costly. On paper, agriculture diversification is very active. The goal in the Sixth National Development Plan [SNDP] (2011-2015) is "to increase and diversify agriculture production and productivity so as to raise the share of its contribution to 20 percent of GDP". Further, one of the sectoral strategies of the National Agricultural Policy is "diversification of agricultural production and utilization."

From my layman's view, agriculture diversification can be at two levels. Across subsectors, i.e. crops, livestock and fisheries, for instance. It can also be within subsectors, for instance, diversifying crop production beyond maize (or whichever crop is grown in excess). The government partly attributed the reduction in maize this year to diversification. That may indicate that something is happening albeit at a slow pace. However, there is a gulf between policy intentions and practices. Policies and development plans are preaching diversification; the practice is that of encouraging mass maize production. If K2 trillion can go to maize alone, what diversification are we talking about?

Incidentally, both the SNDP and the Nation Agricultural Policy lapse in 2015. If we are still preoccupied with mas maize production, then when will the targeted diversification be achieved? What progress will be reported on the diversification objective two years from now?

tkambilane@yahoo.com

Lusaka and the market of mutual dependencies

I was in Lusaka on Wednesday for a whirlwind tour of downtown to purchase connectors for our waterline that is starting to resemble the Great Wall of China in project duration.

For those of you not familiar with Lusaka, it's essentially a series of neighborhoods that straddle or parallel the main roads in and out of town. Each neighborhood has it's certain demographic, characteristics, etc. For example, Kabulonga and Woodlands are where you'll find all the wealthy, elite Zambians, ex-pats; Longacres, most of the foreign embassies; Emmasdale is where the South Asian business community resides; Mwandevu, the city's gritty northern gateway where the illicit charcoal from the forest reserves all gets dropped off; Mutendere, the shanty compound where half of everyone seems to live on top of each other; and Kalingalinga, one of the sadder places in the universe where you can see old women and little kids breaking stones with hammers for a pittance.

Downtown (or "town" as it's known in the local vernacular) is the great beating heart of Lusaka. It is essentially four streets wide by 10 long that parallel the line-of-rail and the famous Cape-to-Cairo road [Cairo Road] wherein lie endless marches of shops. There is no apparent pattern to the place to the untrained or inexperience mind, but five years of wandering in and out of the place looking for stuff leads to a semblance of geography. However, there is a very simple business concept you have to swallow before you can grasp it [or the market in Zambia] which I term "clustering".

You see, from the smallest market of the side of a dusty road all the way up to Downtown Lusaka, people sell similar items in clusters. For example, if you want tomatoes, you find the place where they sell tomatoes and you find something like 40 women sitting side-by-side with identical piles of tomatoes arrayed in front of them, selling tomatoes at nearly identical prices. It goes the same for beans, dried fish, meat, auto parts, hardware, plumbing, etc. If you (like me) are looking for polypipe connectors, there is a stretch of Freedom Way northeast of the Mumbwa / Lumumba Road junction that has a number of stores that carry plumbing supplies at nearly identical prices right next to each other. Fascinating, too, how these stores operate ... you wander in and are immediately met by a 20-something guy who figures out what you want, and knows instantly whether the store has it or not. If not, he assures you that he'll be right back and sprints off into the mass of people on the sidewalk. A few minutes after staring into the same mass, he reemerges carrying something. With some clarification, he sprints off again; more staring, and then confirmation of a part, or a sad shake of the head that means the part doesn't exist within his circle of influence / associated stores. It works surprisingly well; you might pay a slightly higher price for a particular part (sort of the finder's fee, if you will), but you save a lot of footwork and time. I didn't get exactly what I was looking for, but we were able to improvise a number of single connectors from two or three different pieces. 

The point of all this is that often, the superficial view of Zambian market views is that it is a relatively chaotic mass that lacks organization, order, rules, etc. However, there is a hidden order; many of these clusters serve as mutually beneficial entities. For example, if one of the ladies selling tomatoes needs to rush somewhere for something, another lady will look after her small child(ren) and watch her stand. If there is a good wholesale of tomatoes, that information gets shared out to others, so that a relatively small group of women can corner that sale and set a mutual price on tomatoes in a certain area. It's not a system that supports individual competition; if you set out on your own, you risk ending up a pariah, ostracized, etc. In our relatively introverted [Western] society, this is acceptable ... you can exist on your own penned up within books, Ipods, existing online through an avatar, etc. Here, it is akin to shunning; Zambian society is based on mutual dependencies that allow an individual to survive through association with a group, be it familial, tribal, locative, economic, etc. The closest parallel I can figure in our context would be deep-sea fisherman; though they are in a sense competing with each other, they look out for each other, sharing engine parts, fishing information, etc. less out of a sense of altruism rather than a sense of mutual obligation. If I don't give Captain So-and-so a hand when he's in a pinch, word might get around, and then what do I do if I end up in a tight spot? Neither a wise course in either the literal or figurative sea.

It's tough for Americans [the land-based ones] to wrap their heads around this. For us, reared in the tradition of the Puritan ethic, Horatio Alger, and so forth, it is the individual through her/his luck, skill, shrewdness, determination, perseverance,or a combination of such that get Ragged Dick into a decent life. Here, it's not that you only have to work hard ... you have to look out for your neighbors. That's sort of the reason why development projects that target individuals seem to have little success; they might get ahead for a bit, but jealousy can cause that person to suffer social ostracism, so the advancement has a limiting factor. This is particularly evident where projects seek to help a specific demographic in a "community" (i.e. female-headed households, orphans and vulnerable children, etc.) without recognizing that the remaining demographics in the "community" might be upset over the recognition, support, material goods, etc. that they cannot access.

I'll try to flesh this idea out more as I move along; it's a tough one and I lack much of the equipment to accurately characterize it, but it's worthwhile for me to explore its corners.