18 November, 2015 - No rains yet ... and ... ZNFU Agro Watch Notes

This blog represents the views of the author alone, and does not reflect the opinions of his employer, Concern Worldwide. 

Greetings, again dear readers wherever or whoever you may be.

We are still awaiting the "planting rains", three days after a singularly important day on two levels for me as an agriculturalist in Zambia, and as a Yooper. November 15th to the 25th is highly critical for Zambian farmers as it represents the optimal planting window for maize. Why? I'll summarize a few hours worth of training into a few bullets:

• Nitrogen flush:   Once rains kick off, the air and soil temperatures drop off precipitously (a brief aside ... last week I was in mid-40s C temps in Liuwa Plains NP, Kalabo, Mongu, Senanga, Sesheke, Livingstone, and Chirundu ... maybe I'll write briefly about ringing the west and south, maybe not. Anyway, the precipitous drop means soil temps go down to low 30s/high 20s ... still plenty of heating units even in mulched soils). Once these temps drop (and some moisture comes into play), saprotrophs and heterotrophs start breaking down organic material in the soil, which is then  mineralized into plant available forms (plants don't chew raw nutrients ... they suck it up as a solution, another reason moisture is key). Anyway, flush is the real word ... it's there and gone in a hurry as our soil temps are generally high, and in farmed fields, the tradition of burning crop residues prior to planting reduces available organic matter. The microbes essentially eat and reproduce themselves out of house and home in a hurry, even faster if they till the soil (which increases oxidation and mineralization rates by aerobic bacteria. Anyway, long and short is that if you can catch that flush, especially in maize, you get a huge boost in the critical first four weeks of the plant growth, effectively developing a much more effective photosynthetic engine. 

• Daylength:  Maize is a sun-loving plant; not a surprise, given the demands it puts on the photosynthetic outputs (big stalk, heavy cobs, etc). We don't see this much in temperate climes as we have comparatively long summer days (heat and degree days are more the problem). However, in Zambia, days range from 13 hours in the summer (with longer in the south) to 11 hours in the winter. Catching as much sun as possible means more photosynthetic output, and consequently, a bigger plant. Some estimates show that yield loses from planting after November 25th equal 2% of potential yield per day (!). Also, and I'm wandering out onto thin ice, but maize often flowers (depending on the genotypes) based off the daylength, which can mean some plants may flower prior to being "ready" (growth-wise) to flower. It, like all aspects of maize, are somewhat strange and fascinating ... a great thesis from a Zambian student at Iowa State in the late 1980s explains somewhat why tropical maize grown in the temperate zones gets really big (leafy) but produces little (something I've observed as well). 

• Rain: This damnable ENSO (el Nino) event is going to make life miserable for farmers despite rainbows, prayers, days of fasting, etc. (Appealing to the Almighty is understandable and I often do so myself, but the extent that it actively destroys agency and responsibility gets a bit wearisome). Anyway, we are going to have short (late start, early finish) rains, and likely low annual accumulations between October and April, the months in which nearly all the rain falls and which we typically measure. The earlier you plant, and combined with the above, the more of that rain you catch, the better the yield. 

Long and short, plant early ... and not just maize! 

Notes from ZNFU Friday Brief (Week 46) (My notes in red text):

The Minister of Agriculture, Hon. Given Lubinda, MP has assured maize farmers in Zambia that maize markets will still be available for the 2015/2016 crop despite the increasing input costs that farmers are currently experiencing. The Minister said this when ZNFU President, Dr Nguleka and her team presented an Issues paper on the increasing costs of maize production for the 2015/2016 crop at the Ministry of Agriculture on Friday 13^th November 2015. The Minister assured maize farmers that government will allow market forces (demand and supply) to operate in order to ensure farmers get a better price for their crop. Hon. Lubinda observed that farming is a business and government will continue to provide a conducive environment aimed at encouraging further investment in the sector.

I was at the recent IAPRI conference for Western and Southern Provinces (same day) and he (Hon. Lubinda) was in attendance. Welcome relief (I'm on Minister of Agriculture #4 or 5 since 2010) as he seems fairly straightforward, though no one could ever match Bob Sichinga's sensayuma. Anyway, if they want farming to be a business, GRZ needs to pull out of both FISP and FRA. Lubinda gets that, but maize subsidies are like holding the proverbial political wolf by the ears: you don't like it, but you sure as hell don't want to let go.

SUNFLOWER PRODUCTION: THE BLOOMING INDUSTRY

The oilseed stakeholders met on 11^th November at the ZNFU offices to review the market situation of soya beans and other oilseeds. Whilst expressing appreciation the importance of maintaining export relations, the stakeholders agreed that there was need for stakeholder consultations before any exports of soya beans could be allowed so as to support the growth of the soya beans value chain. During the deliberations, the farmers indicated that there was need for traders and processors to enter into pre-planting contracts with the farmers, as uncertainty over the markets affects the farmer’s decision on what quantities of the crop to grow. The farmers were assured that demand of soya beans would be high in 2016 and that some off-takers were ready to sign supply contracts with the farmers.

The stakeholders were informed that there was readily available sunflower market with the demand in 2015 projected at least 50,000MT by oilseed crusher with a potential to expand further should supply increase. Farmers were encouraged to grow high oleic sunflower varieties to attract premium prices.  Stakeholders however bemoaned the inadequate supply of high yielding sunflower seed varieties on the local market and proposed that seed companies should be engaged for sustainable growth of the sunflower industry.

I take some pride in being part of the introduction of sunflowers into Western Province in 2010 and 2011. However, despite it growing fine (if planted early) in Zambia with minimal inputs and efforts, it is still planted on a relatively low scale. The whole out-grower scheme would be ideal but for the fact that our farming season straddles the fiscal year turnover. The farmers have it right on this; knowing the price in advance would likely guarantee production, as marketing points for sunflower are not nearly as ubiquitous as maize.

 2015 WHEAT PRODUCTION ESTIMATED AT OVER 300,000 TONS

The ZNFU wheat and barley commodity committee met on Thursday 12^th November 2015 to review the 2015 wheat production estimates. Based on information captured through satellite imagery, the total area under wheat in 2015 was 46,156 hectares out of which, 42,564Ha was observed to be normal, 1,916Ha had somewhat stressed/below average wheat while 1,675ha had stressed wheat. The total production has been estimated at 309,100 of wheat while the 2015 barley crop harvest has been pegged at 8,800tons. The farmers expressed concern on the high levels of uncommitted wheat crop still available in the farmers’ hands with little propensity by the millers to purchase the crop. The meeting was further informed that the estimated national wheat consumption requirement is 387,193MT. It was however highlighted that due to load shedding, indication from the millers was that while there have been some attempts to invest in alternative sources of power, their normal production levels had dropped by about 30%. It was further stated that demand for flour and flour products was being affected by the rising cost of living.

Just a note ... nearly all wheat is grown by a relative handful of very large scale farmers (inclusive of quite a number of white ex-Zimbabweans) under pivot irrigation. It's sown just after the rains and irrigated throughout the early part of the dry season, then matures and dries under the later, hotter part of the dry season; usually they combine it in early October. It still is the strangest thing to go from a farmer working with a hoe on a quarter hectare to a person operating a 50 foot combine through 250ha of wheat in the same day.

WATER SHORTAGE HITS COPPERBELT

Copperbelt like many other districts in the country has experienced low water levels ever recorded with most perennial streams and wells drying up. Farmers in the countryside have expressed worry over the water crisis as most of their livestock depend on streams and wells for their water. Farmers have to walk long distances to fetch for water.  Others have resorted to drive to nearby towns to draw water in drums for their livestock, and for domestic use. A Mr. Mwale of Mufulira Murundu farming area explained that for the first time, he has witnessed a perennial stream drying up. "This is very sad, my animals are dying, vegetables completely wilting" Mr Mwale lamented. 

Meanwhile, a group of farmers in Ndola have mobilised themselves and have requested the regional office to assist in finding a borehole driller and negotiate the prices so that they can have boreholes in their farms as a measure to mitigate the water crisis. And a named borehole driller has since been approached and negotiations are currently underway.

Good thing climate change is just a myth ... right? More like what my friend Rolf Shenton says; Zambia's capacity to absorb rain is being destroyed as forests fall to charcoal and farms.

KATETE DC DISSOLVES ERRING CAC COMMITTEE

The District Commissioner for Katete district has dissolved the Camp Agriculture Committee (CAC) for Chilembwe Agricultural Camp after discovering that the CAC committee and the Camp Extension Officer could not account for k 20,000.00 contribution made by Cooperatives and other farmers groups for CAC activities. The CAC committee could not also account for 138 packs of fertilizer under the Farmer Input Support Program (FISP) which were allocated to the agricultural camp. During the meeting held on 6^th November 2015 the area Councilor for Chimwi Ward appealed to the DC through the DACO to consider replacing the Camp Extension Officer.

Typical FISP ... usually it doesn't get reported.

E-VOUCHER CARDS DISTRIBUTION ON COURSE

The distribution of FISP e-voucher in Mumbwa district has so far gone well with over 75% of the cards already issued to beneficiary farmers. More than 12,000 cards have been issued to the beneficiaries against the intended 16,239 beneficiaries as the exercise continues.

As usual, behind schedule ... 

At the same meeting last week, I was somewhat surprised by the tacit, subtle resistance to the e-vouchers, which have been in play by FAO, CFU, hell, even Concern since 2007ish. It's a relatively simple thing ... you get a credit card sized voucher with a fixed value, take it to a participating agrodealer, and redeem inputs against the value of that card ... agrodealers get paid fairly quickly, and there's zero transport costs to the government (the farmers collect the voucher). However, standard FISP distribution is a powerful expression of gift-giving (go read My African Friends and Money Matters) that accrues repute to the giver. Power. That's the tall beer. I have it figured they want it to fail because it deprives them of that power.

However, the exercise has faced a minor challenge in one agriculture camp of the district where a few farmers could not collect their cards due to some unexplained religious conviction. The farmers who could not pick up the cards belong to Mpusu Agriculture Camp north of Mumbwa district.

Huh...

FARMERS’ REPRESENTATIVE CALLS FOR INTRODUCTION OF THE FISP E-CARD IN ALL DISTRICTS

Kabompo District Farmers' Association (DFA) chairman, George Munyingu, has called on government to extend the use of the FISP e-voucher card to other districts in the country. Speaking during the Kabompo DFA executive committee meeting on Wednesday this week, Mr. Munyingu said the use of the e-card will bring sanity in the implementation of the FISP exercise. He further added that the use of the e-card will eliminate a lot of discrepancies currently being experienced under the FISP program. He cited some farmer organizations which do not have proven membership but are receiving huge amounts of input packs thereby disadvantaging real farmer organisations.

Read that vs. the bit above. Farmers like it because they are more in control of when they get their inputs.

FISP BENEFICIARY FARMERS STILL WAITING FOR SEED INPUTS

All the districts in North Western B region have not received the allocated seed. A check at the storage sheds in various districts found warehouse managers still waiting to receive the seed. The affected districts are Chavuma, Kabompo, Manyinga and Zambezi.

Another reason to switch to e-cards ... waiting on other people sucks.

Remember the poor.

10th November, 2015 - ZNFU Weekly Update and Agro-watch

The views expressed on this blog are the author's own, and do not reflect the views of Concern Worldwide. 

Bits and pieces of the weekly farm news that's fit to use from Agro-Watch, vol. 44 and the Friday Brief. As usual, my additions in red:

Agro-Watch 

Highlights [maize]

• Malawi’s grain marketing agency, ADMARC, adjusted their maize selling prices end of October from 3,000 Malawian Kwacha to K4, 000 per 50Kg bag (approx.US$7.19/50kg bag or Zambian Kwacha 93.5/bag). Maize prices have been rising on the Malawian market due to sporadic supplies with other private traders quoted to be selling for as high as K8, 000/ 50kg bag (≈US$14.38/50kg bag or ZMW187 per 50kg bag).
• With the close of the FRA maize purchase season on 31st October 2015, Zambia’s food reserve agency purchased a total of 596,081MT during the 2015/16 marketing season. Original target was 500,000MT, but their overruns were far less than last year's spectacular 400,000MT purchase ... I suspect the deepening currency crisis and the govt.'s lack of money have as much to  do with this as the smaller amounts available on the market. Pressure has continued to mount from the Millers for government to release maize on the local market at subsidized prices to lower [mealie-meal] prices . They are pressured by Zambia's very substantial urban population (and consequently, the Government ... everyone remembers that Kaunda's downfall was hastened by unavailability of food). So many Zambians purchase mealie-meal, it gets a bit worrisome. The initial indication that maize would be offloaded at K85/50kg bag has been put on ice as government reviews the matter further.
• Indicative local offer prices were averaging ZMW1.6/Kg with the highest offer pegged at ZMW2.3/kg on the ZNFU market price information system.
• Maize mealie-meal 25kg in Mayukwayukwa is selling at K130~140; 10kg is K50~55.

Friday Brief

CENTRAL REGION

METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT CAUTIONS FARMERS

Meteorological Department in central province has urged farmers to approach this season with caution as weather forecasts are showing normal to below normal rains. Felix Imbwae who is the Provincial Meteorological officer for Central Province said this when ZNFU officers visited him at his office. He further said that farmers should consider planting drought resistant varieties and early to medium maturing ones. And Mr. Imbwae has urged farmers to go for conservation farming practices as they remain the best option in times of less rainfall. I wonder which practices; I've realized recently that almost everyone sees (literally) CA as planting basins. Soil cover is an afterthought, and crop rotation an outright puzzle. 

HEAVY DOWNPOUR SENDS FARMERS IN PANIC MOOD

Heavy rains that characterized most parts of central province have sent farmers mostly small scale into serious panic. The start of the rain season has found most farmers unprepared due to challenging circumstances. Funny, it starts pretty much the same time every year. How did this catch farmers unawares? Some farmers have indicated that they expect a challenging farming season due to high inputs prices and delayed FRA payments. Which of course, you can't do without ... right? Meanwhile, some farmers have complained that tractor owners have also taken advantage of the prevailing situation and adjusted prices for Land Tillage upwards. Last year most farmers in the province were charged between k300 to k400 for land tillage per hectare but now it’s between K500 to K650. Ah, the "Dollah" strikes again. Price of everything has climbed, sort of like a run on the bank. Everyone complains when the kwacha (and prices) rises in response to the dollar as they have the same amount of kwacha, albeit it is worth much less.

EASTERN REGION

PETAUKE FARMERS BEMOAN HIGH FERTILIZER PRICES

Farmers in Petauke District have lamented the rapid escalation in fertilizer prices and have since asked the government to intervene in the matter. Not so much the independent yeoman farmers of the Jefferson ideal. Farmers have described the situation as a hindrance to the growth of agriculture sector in the country, adding that if the situation is left unchecked then many rural households will languish in poverty because many of them depend on farming. Again, is there no way to do it without fertilizer? Fertilizer prices have increased by over 100% from last year’s prices. A bit of a stretch, but yes, it has gone up at least 50%. A check by ZNFU in the district found that D Compound was trading at k 420.00 while Urea at K 375.00. I'm surprised it's not worse ... in the West, these are more like K450 and K400.

KATETE RECEIVES HEAVY RAINS

Katete district this week on 3^rd of November 2015 received heavy rains. The rains which lasted for over 3 hours covered the entire district and this caused panic among farmers especially those that have not yet received their payment from the Food Reserve Agency where they supplied their maize. Not much structural agency assigned to farmers, but you see them stuck in the same ruts all the time. Always grow maize. Always sell maize to FRA. Always delayed wait for FRA to pay. Further delays waiting for FISP to arrive. Repeat annually for 8 years. Similarly Nyimba and Petauke districts also received some measured quantities of rains in most parts. 

NORTHERN REGION

FARMERS ANXIOUSLY AWAIT FISP DISTRIBUTION COMMENCEMENT

With the onset of rains, farmers in Mungwi are beginning get worried over the delay in the distribution of FISP inputs to various camps. The chairperson of Mungwi DFA, David Ng’andu has said that the delay in the distribution will negatively affect farming this season. And the DFA chairperson has expressed sadness (my heart does not go out to the better-off farmers who won't get subsidized inputs intended for the poor to whom my heart does go) at the reduced fertilizer allocation to the district at a time when the number of potential beneficiaries is increasing. [The] Government in Zambia is perceived by rural folks as a big yawning pocket full of money, largely because of its poor transparency in terms of how money is spent, and historically, Zambia's full-court press of socialism during the one-party state days. 

So far only Urea fertilizers have been delivered while D compound and seed have not yet been delivered to the district. That's helpful, they need Urea (top-dressing) around Christmas, but the seed and D needs to be around by two weeks ago. Again ... same thing every year. 

LUAPULA REGION

FARMERS BEMOAN DELAYED FRA PAYMENTS

Farmers in Mansa district have expressed disappointment over the delayed payments for the maize they supplied to the Food Reserve Agency (FRA).  The farmers have complained that the Agency had not adhered to the stipulated marketing modalities of paying them within two weeks after delivery of the commodity. Please tell me you notice the same theme I've noticed for over 8 years, and understand why I bemoan and am saddened by the state of farming in Zambia. 

September 7th, 2015 - Into the furnace

The views of the author are his alone and do not necessarily represent the views of Concern Worldwide.

The Zambian Kwacha has been on something of a climb lately; we’re used to it creeping upwards, but over the past two weeks it went from 7ish to almost 10. It is a bit breath-taking to watch a currency drop 40% of its value in less than a month. The timing is crummy for us, as farm input prices are figured in dollars; this means the kwacha equivalent of a $10,000 tender on Aug. 15^th, for example, is now worth $6,000. We are likely to have a big underspend at the end of the year simply from inflation. We also run the risk of suppliers breaking off contracts, a worrying prospect given the time it takes to do everything by the book. A brief aside, but larger NGOs are notoriously obligated to document the living daylights out of everything, and procedures typically are quite convoluted and usually paper-based. They are ostensibly designed to keep things accountable and transparent; what I know of them is that they keep things from happening quickly or simply.

The government, or rather, the President, has responded appropriately by declaring two new districts in Northwestern Province. The government also took a big chunk of its latest Eurobond to pay against obligations (much against civil servant emoluments that have been delayed) with the hope that pumping hard currency into the economy will slow the fall. It has a bit of wishful thinking involved; forces much larger than Zambia, e.g., the slowdown in the Chinese economy and hence, the lower demand for copper, means less revenues from the resource that erstwhile scholars such as moi consider much more of a curse than a blessing.

In the meantime on the maize front, the Food Reserve Agency raised its price for a 50kg of maize from K70.00 to K75.00 on what appeared to be a spur-of-the-moment announcement by the President at the Lusaka airport. This was something worth pondering a few weeks ago when K7.00 ZMW was equal to $1USD, hence a bag of maize equalled $10.00; now, K10.00 = $1USD, so that same bag is worth $7.50; wonder how much will end up in the market, which adjusts its prices a bit more vigorously.

ZESCO continues to be the punch-bunny for the public’s angst against the government, as ZESCO is a parastatal. If you scroll back through my older posts, I likely explain what a parastatal is multiple times, but just in case: parastatals are government-run companies. A Zambian technocrat would likely get upset over my semantics, as in the one-party state days, parastatals were government-owned and -run. Anyway, there are few of them left after the orgy of liberalization in the late 90’s that along with the AIDS pandemic left the Zambian landscape a wasteland. Unfortunately, they hung on to ZESCO; Zambia (used?) to get loads of foreign currency by selling power, and it’s a patronage thing … working in ZESCO appears to be a golden ticket given the number of nice cars in there parking lots, and the fact that they have parking lots.

Travelled to Mongu today on the Shalom bus; as usual, it was a numbing, nine hour assault on my senses with endless loop of either gospel or rhumba playing at full volume in order to be heard over the engine and the noise of the dry wind coming through cracked windows to keep the bus from becoming unbearable. Was unnaturally hot in Mongu at 16:30 when we arrived; I later checked our station and found out it peaked around 37° C (99° F) just before that. We are in for it in a big way if it’s already that hot … can’t imagine what October will be like.

August 15th, 2015 - ZNFU Weekly Friday Brief (Week #33)

Excerpts from the ZNFU Weekly Friday Brief, Week 33
--------------------------------------------------------------------

There is an inescapable sense of doom in this one ... the combination of uncertainty over ZESCO and the worry about the next season's rainfall pattern leave me with a bit of a sense that the world is tearing loose from it's moorings. This has been abetted by me finding out Sesame Street is headed to HBO this morning; the surrender of this planet to the worship of money.

As usual, if any ... Author's notes in red:

FRA MAINTAINS MAIZE PURCHASE PRICE…

The Food Reserve Agency (FRA) has maintained its maize purchase price for the 2015/16 marketing season at K70 per 50kg bag or K1, 400 /MT.  The agency will be buying a 40kg bag of rice at K60. The agency has further stated that it would start the purchase of grain next week Monday 17^th August 2015. Eligible farmers will be paid over the counter through identified Financial and Banking institutions after presenting official purchase documents as a way of uploading accountability and governance in the use of public resources. 

Public resources are usually released to the farmers after 4 to 8 months if we're going off past performance of the FRA.

ZESCO LTD URGED TO INCREASE EMERGENCY MEASURES

The power outlook from now until the next rainy season remains gloomy. ZESCO revealed at a meeting with farmers held on 13^th August 2015 that participation in load shedding measures to curb demand has to come from everybody. The mines who are currently not being load shed have been engaged by ZESCO and are expected to furnish ZESCO with details on how they will contribute to reducing their demand for power in two weeks because the country’s generation is on the brink of a shutdown.  From the information shared at the meeting, it was evident that a shutdown at Kariba could occur in early October, if the mines maintain a business as usual stance because then only 68.9 days of power (oh snap) is what is available under this scenario. However, with all participating in load shedding including the mines, generation at Kariba stretches into November resulting in 98.5 days of power becoming available. Wow, the reservoirs don't usually start to fill until New Years' ... particularly when the are as silly low as they are now.

  

Going forward, additional power is expected to come from Itezhi Tezhi, 120 MW in early November and in January 2016, 150MW is expected from Coal Generation by the IPP at Maamba while another 150MW is expected to follow in March 2016 from the same source. However, these being new generation plants, the time frames could vary suddenly as circumstances keep evolving.  In addition, 174 MW emergency power has been secured from Mozambique (wait a minute ... isn't Cabora Bassa downstream of Kariba Dam?) and this will be available until December. Meanwhile, ZESCO indicated that a forecast of power (under different scenarios) for Zambia and the region will only be ready by end August, 2014 (2016) although one of the big unknown factors will be the rainfall pattern for this year.

After deliberations, it was resolved that ZESCO should concentrate on importing as much power as it can to cover the deficit and that ERB should look at the pricing mechanism without delay. There was a general feeling that paying more for imported expensive power given the current circumstances is better than the huge costs associated with running generators.  In addition, engage Government to take immediate measures to reduce the cost of diesel by removing the added taxes so that the cost of running generators reduces. Further, the negative impact of load shedding on the agricultural sector should be clearly stipulated to policy makers because poor performance of the agriculture sector has ramifications on the country’s food security and job levels. This would manifest in rising inflation and macroeconomic instability because as production of food gets affected by load shedding, imports will have to fill the gap and this will put more pressure on the exchange rate.

Just a note ... commercial farmers in Zambia produce a great deal of wheat, some barley, and sugar thanks to the wonder of irrigation. However, pivot irrigation schemes require a great deal of electricity, or all that wheat, barley and sugar won't grow. See next heading below ...

With this gloomy picture, all industries should contribute towards reducing the downside risks of the power deficit on the economy by equitably cutting back on demand for power but priority should be attached to safeguarding producing of food for the nation.    ZESCO Ltd was also requested to step up the visibility of their sensitization campaigns on demand side management in order to reduce wastage of power which is observed in many public places. The Union will be engaging the authorities for action in these areas.

AREA UNDER WHEAT CULTIVATION MOVES UPWARDS IN 2015

The wheat commodity committee met yesterday, 13^th August 2015 to review the preliminary wheat and barley production estimates for 2015 and the current marketing season.  Through remote sensing technology, the preliminary totals are under wheat and barley in Zambia has been estimated at 47,829 hectares. The meeting was informed by the consultant engaged to estimate Zambia’s winter crops production through satellite imagery that separation of the wheat from the barley fields would only be done over the next few weeks as the crops approach maturation and hence will emit more distinct signals. It was highlighted that whilst some farms had reduced their wheat area planted due to expectations of load shedding and reduced water levels, there were new entrants in wheat production especially in Serenje area. It was further noted by the farmers that millers and traders had slowed down in their local wheat purchases as only about 60% of the crop was commitment whilst about the same time last year, 97 percent of the crop was committed. Information from the traders indicated that millers are only signing up contracts with traders for wheat delivered up to January on assumption that millers will be allowed to import wheat again. The meeting resolved that in the event of a deficit, the period for any imports should be between 1^st April, and 31^st July, 2015 in order to allow for all the local wheat to be committed.

The meeting bemoaned the decision by government to issue an additional 11,000MT of wheat import permits and urged that the 31^st August 2015 deadline for all wheat imports to cease should be strictly adhered to and import duty should be reinstated on imports. Government should further be encouraged to adopt the stance taken by South Africa where when global wheat prices fall to a certain threshold, the import duty is revised further upwards to avoid injury on local producers. Earlier on in the year, the Minister of Agriculture and Livestock approved the importation of 75,000MT of wheat duty free. As at end of July, ZRA data revealed that about 59,600MT of wheat had been imported into the country. I sometimes wonder if white "milk" bread is creeping up the charts of Zambia's staple foods.

WATER BLUES HITS MASAITI

Water shortage has hit Masaiti district (up in the Copperbelt where rain is usually decent) with most streams drying up. This development has raised fears mostly among livestock farmers who depend on natural streams for domestic and livestock use. In Michinka area a number of wells have also dried up and people are now walking long distances to fetch for this rare commodity.  Farmers in the area have since appealed to the relevant authority to consider drilling boreholes to mitigate the problem. 

KABOMPO FARMERS WELCOME FRA AS BUYER OF LAST RESORT

Farmers in Kabompo district of North-western province are eager to see the start of the marketing season. This follows the announcement of the maize price by the Food Reserve Agency. Farmers that were spoken to say this exercise has long been awaited as most of them had their maize stacked at satellite depots for over a month now. Speaking when he visited the ZNFU office, Kabompo District Farmers Association chairman Mr. George Munyingu said it was good that the FRA maize price has been announced. Mr. Munyingu has since implored the Government to consider buying the commodity from the rural farmers that have limited options of where to sale their produce.  Mr. Munyingu said buying from the rural farmer will help them with secure markets particularly that the only available millers can only be found about 350 Km away.

Mr. Munyingu said transporting one by 50kg bag on such a distance, costs K15.00 making the cost of production to go high. Mr. Munyingu further hopes that the farmers will be paid on time to enable them plan better for next season.

MUMBWA FARMERS URGED TO WATCH MAIZE MARKET TRENDS

The ZNFU Director, Mr. Richard Lisimba has urged farmers to hold on to their maize crop and only release enough to offset their outstanding loans so that they are paid back on time. This was said during the AGM for Mumbwa DFA that was held on 12^th August, 2015. He informed the meeting that due to poor rains experience in the just ended season, the crop yield was also poor thereby reducing the availability of the commodity on the market. He gave an example of Mongu where the commodity was already trading at K90/50kg bag on the open market.

Meanwhile 47 satellite FRA depots in Western Province have been opened that will be used to purchase maize and rice meant for strategic reserves this marketing season. This came to light when the ZNFU visited the Provincial Marketing Coordinator Mr. Lubasi Nawa at his office in Mongu. Didn't know there was any maize to buy this year ... need to find out where these depots are.... do know they're paying around K80 for a 40kg bag of rice.

August 14th, 2015 - The Food Reserve Agency (FRA) floor price set at K70 x 50kg bag

Zambia's Food Reserve Agency (FRA) announced its floor price yesterday, which I heard over the ZNBC news whilst enjoying a meal of rice and beans that was positively resplendent with cooking oil.

To clarify from what mi amigo Dr. William Burke told me years back, it's not really a true "floor price", or more appropriately (?), a "price floor" ... FRA's floor price is more appropriately, a pan-territorial price for a fixed weight / volume, the ubiquitous 50kg maize grain bag purchased by FRA at an approved depot or satellite depot anywhere in Zambia. This year it is ... drumroll ... K70 per 50kg bag, of which they will purchase a supposed maximum of 500,000 metric tonnes.

Hmm. As CSPR says, nothing exciting. No change from last year, especially considering two factors:

1. USD to ZMW exchange rate ... a year ago, the Zambian Kwacha (ZMW) was trading around K6.1 to $1.00, so a bag of maize was worth approximately $11.50. Today it just closed at K7.90 to $1.00 (gulp), meaning a bag of maize is worth about $8.86. This is a kick in the slegs to farmers who don't get subsidized maize support, as fertilizer and seed prices are often estimated in USD and then converted to ZMW. 
2. IT BARELY RAINED THIS YEAR IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. That means we have less maize and the FRA is paying less (in dollars) for it.

However, this is a glimmer of hope for us nut-jobs who harp on about diversification; in its own groping way, the government appears to be backing away from its deathgrip on Zambia's maizescape. It's likely (though no standing government would admit it) that their handling of maize through the FRA has been a significant distortion [read: wandering disaster] of the food market and a spectacular loss of taxpayer's money (state-to-state / donor aid usually lands in research and extension in some garbled way like moi).

We'll see ... my prediction is that maize cropping will drop somewhat depending on how well they stick to the quota of 500,000 MT, and if they are at their usual snail's pace of paying the farmers around December / January. FISP is still intact and far more of an expression of government largesse in rural areas, so it will likely stand politically.  

In the meantime ... maize grain is selling at K110 / 50kg (packed to 60-65kg) on the open market. Guess hunger and Adam Smith are moving the dial on their own ... 

July 15th, 2015 - ZNFU Notes, Fuel Prices and FRA

Excerpts from the weekly Agro Watch, Volume 28 2015

My notes in red.

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Fuel:

Diesel and petrol Prices hit K8.59 and K9.87 respectively. The Energy Regulation Board (ERB) has adjusted the pump price of petroleum products by K1.13 for petrol; K1.00 for diesel; K0.72 for kerosene and has maintained the price of low sulphur diesel (diesel), effective midnight of 13th July 2015. Consequently, the prices will now be as follows: Diesel pump price increases to K8.59 from K7.59; while Petrol pump price increases to K9.87 from K8.74. The ERB attributes the increase in oil prices to depreciation of the local currency (Kwacha) against major convertible currencies such as the US dollar. This is despite the fact that crude oil prices on the world market have continued to fall currently at US56.76 per barrel.

Maize:

• In Zambia, the Permanent Secretary for Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock has maintained that Government would only purchase 500,000MT of maize for the Strategic Reserve (they said the same thing last year and ended up buying 900,000MT).
• Ministry of Agriculture has urged farmers to take advantage of private sector maize buyers as opposed to waiting for FRA floor price. (It's not a "floor price" ... what that term means is the absolute minimum at which maize can be purchased is the floor price. What the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) does is set a pan-territorial [nationwide for all depots, satellite depots, etc.] price for a 50kg bag of white maize at 12% moisture content. In 2014, the price was raised from K65.00 / bag [the price from 2010] to K70.00 per bag ... this year's price remains to be seen.)
• FRA has reported that current maize stocks for strategic reserve stands at 393,393MT, and that the Agency will only buy maize in 4 provinces namely: Luapula; Muchinga; North Western and Northern Provinces. (I would have to check, but at least three of those voted for the ruling party in the last election). FRA indicated that the above provinces are not adequately covered by the private sector buyers compared to other provinces along the line of rail (Funny ... Eastern and Western Province don't have railroads. Of course, Western also lacks maize outside of Kaoma.)
• Local average maize price have continued to strengthen backed by the strong demand and limited supply of the commodity. The grain average price for the previous week was pegged at K1, 195/Mt. Prices of the commodity delivered to Lusaka are now averaging K1450/MT. The graph below shows average local maize price trends. (Kind of an obvious one ... the demand for maize in Zambia is equivalent to saying "the demand for oxygen"). 

July 13th, 2015 - ZNFU Notes (Waiting for the FRA; Load Shedding)

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*Excerpts from Friday Brief, Week 28 (10-July-2015*
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LOAD SHEDDING AFFECTS MILK PROCESSORS

A number of processors have bemoaned non adherence to the load shedding schedules by ZESCO as some have gone without power for more than 8hours.This has resulted in increased production costs as processors resort to generators and other expensive alternative sources of power . Most processors have had challenges in collecting milk from Milk Collection Centres (MCCs) as they cannot offload and process milk already at the plant due to power outages by ZESCO. This has in turn has affected MCC operations as they fail to receive milk from the farmers. Dairy Association of Zambia (DAZ) is in the process of undertaking a survey to establish the exact impact of power outages members.

2014/15 FRA CROP MARKETING PREPARATIONS COMMENCE IN SESHEKE

Preparations for the 2014/15 crop marketing season by FRA have commenced in Sesheke district. The Agency has already deployed its field staff to 29 satellite depots besides other logistical arrangements that are being put in place. Initially 18 satellite depots were planned to be opened, but then, the lobbying done by the DFA in collaboration with Ministry of Agriculture convinced the Agency to increase the number by 11 satellite depots.

In another development, the District Commissioner’s office has assured the people of Sesheke district that relief food will soon be given to people who are badly hit with hunger.

FARMERS ANTICIPATING A CHALLENGING MARKETING SEASON

Farmers in Solwezi district are worried by the slow pace at which logistics are being put in place by the FRA for this year’s crop marketing season. The farmers have observed that there is delay in the announcement of the maize flour price and the official opening of the crop marketing season. The farmers have further complained that the late preparations might result into more complications when the marketing exercise begins.

NORTH WEST FARMERS IN DESPERATE WAIT FOR FRA MARKET

Maize Farmers in the north western part of the country are anxiously waiting for the opening of the maize marketing exercise by the Food Reserve Agency (FRA). A check by the ZNFU at different marketing depots in the province found that several farmers have already taken their Maize produce there in readiness for the start of the marketing exercise

June 1st, 2015 - ZNFU Notes

Excerpts from the ZNFU weekly update (Week 22, 2015)

LUBINDA DISSOLVES ALL AGRICULTURAL BOARDS AND TRUSTS

The Minister of Agriculture and Livestock, Hon. Given Lubinda, on Tuesday 26^th May dissolved all the boards and Trusts under his Ministry in a bid to increase their operational efficiencies.  The boards dissolved include the Food Reserve Agency (FRA), Nitrogen Chemicals of Zambia (NCZ), Tobacco Board of Zambia (TBZ), Cotton Board of Zambia (CBZ), Zambia Coffee Board (ZCB) and Dairy Development Board (DDB). The In-Service Training Trust (ISTT), Golden Valley Agriculture Research Trust (GART), Livestock Development Trust (LDT) and Cotton Development Trust (CDT) have also been dissolved. All the functions of the boards and trusts will be handled by the two Permanent Secretaries of MAL until new boards and trusts are instituted.

CHISAMBA FARMERS COMMEND ZNFU FOR THE WATER ACT UPDATE

Farmers in Chisamba district have commended the ZNFU for an update on the latest developments being implemented by the Water Resource Management Authority (WARMA). This happened during a special farmers meeting held at Fringilla Club in Chisamba on 28^th May, 2015 to discuss pertinent issues in the agricultural sector. Among the updates given included the fact that WARMA has continued with consultative meetings with farmers on the implementation of the Water Act of 2011, and that farmers active in irrigation are encouraged to voluntarily be part of water users associations as decisions on water use and allocation will start from recommendations of this structure.

The meeting also heard that permit application fees have been proposed for ratification as per the following categories;

• K 500 for permit application to abstract water 365, 000m³ per year,
• K 100 for permit application to abstract water between 12, 000 and 365, 000m³ per year,
• K 1000 for any mining or hydropower permit application and K 100 for any other permits application.

The meeting was also informed that the ZNFU is actively engaging WARMA on some provisions in the Water Act of 2011, such as those which might disadvantage agricultural investments, vis-à-vis change from water user rights to permits.

And during the same meeting, farmers urged the ZNFU to closely monitor developments in the importation of the 75,000mt of wheat which was recently announced by government, so that the importation does not happen at a time when the local wheat is ready for marketing, as this may depress the local prices.

Further to the deliberations during the meeting, the farmers emphasised that the local beef industry should at all cost be protected from imports as the country cannot compete favourably in the region because imported beef is assumed to be highly subsidized and fed on GMO products and growth stimulants. 

2014-06-24 FRA Floor Price at K70 / 50kg bag

Bleak morning here in Senanga; mid-afternoon yesterday, a low bank of clouds blew in from the east and have remained through the night. Consequently, our early hours are darker and cooler than usual, though the cloudiness this time of year is not unusual. Very rarely (as was the case in 2007 and in 2011) it will rain, and a more miserable site could never be espied; cold and wet is something the locals aren't really keen on.

Friday evening between watching-paint-dry sessions with L. at Country Lodge, they switched the television to the national news (ZNBC). Despite being a pedantic and uninspiring example of state-run media, Zambians will almost uniformly switch over at 19:00 hrs to hear about what Government (like the Brits, no definite article necessary) has done today. Anyway, Friday's news was the long-awaited announcement: the Minister of Agriculture, Wylber Simuusa declared the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) "floor price" has been raised from K65 [first set in 2009] to K70 ($11.49USD).

So far, the news has not been received well by most farmers. They were hoping for a increase in the floor price that would match inflation and the increased cost of living; not surprising, given that when the K65 floor price was set in 2009, it was worth $13.00. Now, the price has dropped in real dollars by $1.50, and that dollar-fifty doesn't go nearly as far.

We'll wait and see, but my gut says the PF government is trying to slowly implement its plans to diversify Zambia's agriculture picture by slowing down the maize juggernaut. Or, they simply can't afford to raise it any higher. Both may be means to the same end.

Post Christmas Maize Woes

There is a frightening diversity of insects flying and crawling all over the blockhouse tonight ... doubtless, the end to the three or four days of rain has induced them to come out, and as they are wont to do, make a straight line towards any light source. So far, no is too bothersome; after spending a few years in the bush with a candle for dinner company, you get inured to things crawling all over you.

There were exceptions to that rule, notably the specimens of Solifugae (wind spiders) that would emerge from the forest adjacent to my house in October and move with a speed indicative of their name towards the candle that provided my gestation's luminescence. My reaction was an uncontrollable heaving of my plate in one direction and leaping off the porch in the other.

It's far easier (in many, many ways both subtle and not) these days, particularly my ability to light a mosquito coil and prevent any organized attack by the assemblage of the Anthropoda kingdom. Instead, they fly and crawl in happy chaos, randomly hitting me in the face or drinking the sweat off my neck.

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Three things have been blaring out over the airwaves and newspapers (real and virtual) with regard to maize recently, which I will present in summary fashion:

1. Army worms came out of nowhere with the first rains and hammered the emerging maize crop in November and the first half of December. Though this didn't touch Western (a maize-growing, but not maize-producing region), it nailed the maize belt regions (Central, Southern, and Eastern) quite bad. It was bad enough for the government to expedite the release of 2,000 metric tonnes of seed maize in a relatively short period. Hope it was a 400 series, because Christmas planting is not a sure thing ... depending on our rain, this might be a short year, as the BBC doubtless hopes. 
2. Mealie meal (maize flour), the basis of Zambia's staple food [nshima] has climbed steadily in price throughout the country due to shortages in the Copperbelt. The shortages are ascribed to people purchasing job lots of the commodity at wholesale (or even retail) prices, throwing all the bags they can manage on a motorcycle, mini-bus, ox-cart, etc., and crossing the border into DRC where the price is substantially higher. Zambia's high urbanization levels makes the price of nshima (which is literally food in this country) a serious political issue. Hence, more maize is being sold by FRA towards the national milling companies, albeit at a loss vs. what they [haven't] paid the farmers. Generally, the high prices are poorly understood by Zambians high or low, who envision the milling companies as gouging them for the sustenance despite "bumper harvests". To me, an American raised with the usual inculcation of cutthroat capitalism, it's not really a surprise whatsoever. The milling companies produce something everyone [thinks they] need. They don't get elected, and they have a golden goose in front of them. Plus, they have bigger silos ... they can buy and buy and control the output of maize meal. 
3. The poor rain patterns across the maize belt. It didn't really get going until deep into November. 

How it will pan out is anyone's guess ... I doubt nationalization is on the table yet, but a poor harvest and a hollering hungry public will doubtless move the government's hand.