January 1st, 2016 - A Bleak Start to the New Year

The views expressed on this blog are the author's alone and do not reflect the views of his employer, Concern Worldwide.

Lusaka remains cursed by sunshine on this dawn the New Year in Zambia. Sitting up last night with friends listening to Zambians shooting off fireworks in the revelry, we looked up a sky chock full of stars and reflected on the oddity of that; typically, this time of year is cloudy, gray, cool, rainy, etc. Instead, we've had bright, blue, hot, dry, etc. To this day, I still cannot puzzle out the workings of the ITCZ, but the best I can figure is that current ENSO (el Nino) is holding the zone in a kinked, stable position ... this means that the frontal boundary (for lack of a better word) moist air that brings rain is not moving south from a roughly in a east-west line centered on Kabwe. Though Zambia historically has a increasing rainfall gradient as you move south-to-north, this year it seems to be less of a smooth linear, and rather a sudden step from too dry to too wet; further, the dry areas are mostly in the West and South.

This has piled on to the crummy rainy season those same areas had in 2014/2015 (which I can now safely refer to as "last year's season"). Most of those areas, particularly in Western Province, were long-ago declared "disaster drought" (GRZ, inclusive of nearly every district survey other than Mongu) or "stressed" (in the terminology of FEWSNET). My friends in the southwestern arc of the Upper Zambezi (e.g., Kazangula, Mwandi, Sesheke) along the Botswana and Namibian border told me over the Holidays that there aren't many words left to describe how bad it is there; ominously, their planting rains never really started, so much of their maize is already dead before the V3 stage. Long and short, people are desperately hungry and have been for quite some time; unfortunately, this year seems to be shaping up to be a bad one in both buLozi and buTonga.

Funny enough, no one seems to notice. There's really been nothing in the papers, including the Post, which has turned its back on the "Real PF" and returned to its virulently anti-ruling party roots; nothing from the donor community; nothing from the government outside of what anecdotal evidence suggests is entirely stochastic; nothing from the Barotse Royal Establishment. It's a wall of silence that is deafening in its sheer immensity, behind which despairing people are perched on a precarious cliff of hunger; it's only so much time before the West and South face the full-blown spectre of starvation. Those same people's (at least strong and healthy enough to do so) efforts are fully in engaged in warding off that hunger with any means at hand, meaning the natural environment is taking the worst beating in years. The so-called "Fish Ban", the eponymous policy that forbids capture fishing of wild fish stocks in virtually all forms between December 1st. and March 1st, is now in its second year of being totally, even brazenly, ignored. Charcoal burning is so rampant that finding Julbernardia or Brachestygia specimens of any size within 50km of Mongu is now an impossibility. Logging has increased exponentially within the five years I have been in Western, particularly of the Guibourtia coleosperma (Zambezi rosewood, copalwood, false mopane) ... baulks measuring a meter square and at least 2.5 meters long are being hauled out of the Kalahari woodlands to the main road in at least four places that I observed last month. In that sense, the lack of capital is driving localized environmental degradation that exacerbates any potential global climate change, and kneecaps future generations ability to utilize those same resources.

And the poorer? The poorest? The single female mothers? The elderly raising a household of orphans? I see them each time I go out in the field; their eyes betray the slow panic that is the constant twinge of hunger that is never dissipated and rarely dulled. Waking up dizzy and out of sorts, wondering where to look for some daily labor to try to feed their family, hoping that they can manage the work on the one to three hours of available energy they have, leaving nothing in the tank for tilling their own land. How do you plan in that state? How do you adopt a new technology? And yet they remain, cursed with the Zambian trait of waiting on government, hoping the truck comes their way, hoping they get a food pack.

I distinctly remember the late President Michael Sata declaring early in his presidency that where there was hunger, there could be no justice. It is my fervent hope that the government will recall that statement and see fit to be just.

21 December - Prioritising in Agriculture

The views expressed on this blog are the author's alone and do not reflect the views or opinions of his employer, Concern Worldwide.

A recent editorial in the Post ... as usual, my comments in red among the text.

Chinese Ambassador to Zambia Yang Youming is urging Zambia to prioritise agriculture as it is essential to the development of any nation.

“In terms of development of agriculture and this is the basis of economic takeoff in China because when we talk about the economic miracle in China, we always talk about industrialisation in China and China being the main manufacturing base for commodities to be exported to the entire world. But we must remember the first thing we emphasise is that we should have a solid agricultural base because you have to provide food and clothing to our people. And food and clothing all come from agriculture, so agriculture has always been and will remain a priority area,” says Ambassador Yang.

For Zambia, we have no sensible alternative to prioritising agriculture. The great majority of our people are dependent on agriculture for survival. Eight five [85%] per cent of our country’s workforce is in agriculture. And only six per cent of our labour force is deployed in the industry. The remaining nine per cent is in services.

The argument CFU makes is that most of these people in agriculture are not "farmers" per se, e.g. the production of food, fuel and/or fibre is not the primary goal of their farming endeavors. There is some truth to that, but the letter of the article is fundamentally correct ... they are growing crops for survival, e.g. food. Disqualifying someone as a farmer is all well and good, but it remains the essential means of survival for the overwhelming majority of rural Zambians.

But despite 85 per cent of our people being deployed in agriculture, the sector’s contribution to our GDP is only 19.80 per cent. The contribution to our GDP by industry and services is far above that of agriculture - 33.80 per cent for industry and 46.5 per cent for services. How can a sector in which 85 per cent of our workforce is deployed account for less than 20 per cent of our GDP? Despite 85 per cent of our workforce being deployed in agriculture, only 4.52 per cent of our arable land is under use. And only 0.05 per cent of that land has permanent crops. And with so much water, only 1,559 square kilometres is irrigated land.

There is some funny math at work here ... would be interesting how you count maize (the faraway leader in crops planted by that 85%) after taking away government subsidies on the production and consumption of the same. Most of what IAPRI says is that the majority of those 85% don't produce a surplus for sale. So ... huge labor force contributing almost nothing to the GDP.

It is clear that we have not prioritised agriculture. The contribution of agriculture to our GDP is too low and more so given its great potential. With 85 per cent of our workforce deployed in agriculture, it means that agriculture is the major source of livelihood for the great majority of Zambians who today, over 60 per cent of them live in abject poverty.

This means that if we have to move our people out of poverty, great effort will need to be exerted to increase agricultural production and consequently increase incomes of the majority poor who are totally dependent on agriculture for survival. This will call for consistent and sustainable high productivity growth in agriculture.

Okay, a bit of funny logic at work here; bunch of people do agriculture, ergo, improving agriculture production will "increase incomes of the majority poor who are totally dependent on agriculture for survival". Most people we work with are a lot like kids on Midwestern farm in the U.S.A. ... once they get the chance, they boost off the farm looking for easier work that pays cash (you would, too if you spent your formulative years swinging a hoe). Even people in rural areas are not likely to engage in sale of farm produce; they may engage in some other livelihood activity. This is where people get the message goobered up ... if you were to, say, get everybody to be a better cabbage farmer, what the hell would they do with all those cabbages? Same really with maize; people, typically the great mass of poor, are really excited when their production equals their consumption levels, or if their production allows them to reach their yearround consumption levels (vis-a-vi sale of their produce). 

To improve agriculture, a lot of things have to change. Our agricultural policies have to change. We can’t continue with the policies that have failed our people and have left them poor over many decades.

Here we go. Policies. As if words on paper can make the soil fertile. 

There will be need for diversification in agriculture. It doesn’t make sense to continue thinking and acting as if maize production is all that agriculture is about. Crop diversification is urgently needed. There is need to promote other crops that can be easily or cheaply grown by our people. And not every part of our country is good for every crop. 

We also need to find markets for all those diverse crops and figure out how to dismantle the great spinning economic, gastronomic, cultural and political engine that maize production and consumption has become. 

There is need to strengthen co-operative structures if we are to improve agriculture, especially for the poor. Efficiently run co-operatives can help a lot in terms of marketing, skills building, research, ICT services, finance, infrastructure and irrigation investment.

Now off to find that cooperative that efficiently uses all those services. "Cooperative" is what I call an automatic word. When you say "cooperative", farmers hear "subsidized inputs". They need to not think of the word "cooperative". Maybe "covenant" or "tontine", though the latter might bring in some interesting repercussions. 

There is also need to focus on crops that will help ensure household and national food security and also provide some surplus for exports. Such crops may include Irish and sweet potatoes, mixed beans, cowpeas, groundnuts, cashew nuts, fruits, in addition to cassava, millet and sorghum.

The contribution of our agriculture to exports is very low. It is just about five per cent. This needs to be increased if we are to see a reversal of economic fortunes.

Of course, crops like sugar, wheat, barley, soya beans, cotton, tea, coffee, tobacco, sunflower and so on and so forth also need policy priority if we are to develop a strong agri-business and light manufacturing.

Sigh. Of all of those, soyabeans, cotton, tobacco and sunflower are within the realm of reason (barely) for a small-scale farmer to grow (the others require irrigation and quite specific management regimes. However, these would be the best-off farmers, those with land and labour to spare. This past week when meeting with farmers, I recognized that the great mass of rural Zambians, who often operate on a quarter-tank with regards to caloric energy, plant maize and cassava because they are a) easy to get and b) provide the most calories. You don't go planting cotton or tobacco when your body's screaming for fuel.

Livestock production also needs to be increased if we are to meet the rising domestic demand and create a surplus for export and increase the incomes of our people. Livestock production calls for improved testing and treatment of all diseases of economic importance for cattle, pigs, goats, sheep and poultry in order to stabilise and increase stocking levels.

Funny enough, it appears that the number of cows in the country could meet demand; it's just that selling cows for money is still at cross-purposes with the fundamentals of cattle possession in the social context; status, non-liquid wealth, the medium of exchange to seal marriage arrangements, etc. Chickens are the way to go; less touchy with the whole gender thing, and villagers are so attached to Lil' Cluck-cluck.

Of late, the Minister of Finance Alexander Chikwanda has shown some increasing interest in fish farming. And the President has also shown some interest in this sector. But more needs to be done to improve fish farming. What is coming out of our fish farms is too little to meet the increasing demand for fish that has been complicated by the depletion of fish stocks in our rivers and lakes.

We agree with Ambassador Yang’s observations on the need to prioritise agriculture. It is a sector in which the great majority of our people are deployed. The poverty that we are experiencing today is a result of poor agriculture. (my opinion poor agriculture practices) If agriculture improves, the poverty levels will equally drop (will they really?). We have low agricultural productivity because the sector is not receiving adequate attention. We are spending over US$300 million per annum subsidising maize. But what are we getting out of that investment as a country? There is no strong political will needed for crop diversification. Too much political opportunism is tied to agricultural policies. Political (and cultural and gastronomic) sensitivities have ridiculously been created around maize production and subsidies. It’s time we stopped cheating our people and took a courageous way out of these sterile agricultural policies that are leading us nowhere other than to the deepening of poverty.

True ... but it's the practices, the capacity of extension to improve practices, and the mentality of how to improve production that are at fault. The Ministry of Agriculture is packed with ghost workers, agriculture officers not at their posts, or agriculture officers who fail to develop, recognize, and / or refine local innovations, etc. It is a system built on the assumption that knowledge comes from on high and should be followed w/out question. I think our constant struggles with CA come from the fact that everyone wants to harmonize the methods (e.g., basins and ripping), rather than understanding the goals likely have multiple opportunities for realization.

Whatever we do, whatever we earn from mining and other sectors, without meaningful developments in agriculture, we are going nowhere and we  will not be able to move our people out of poverty. 

Let's move them out of hunger first. 

18 November, 2015 - No rains yet ... and ... ZNFU Agro Watch Notes

This blog represents the views of the author alone, and does not reflect the opinions of his employer, Concern Worldwide. 

Greetings, again dear readers wherever or whoever you may be.

We are still awaiting the "planting rains", three days after a singularly important day on two levels for me as an agriculturalist in Zambia, and as a Yooper. November 15th to the 25th is highly critical for Zambian farmers as it represents the optimal planting window for maize. Why? I'll summarize a few hours worth of training into a few bullets:

• Nitrogen flush:   Once rains kick off, the air and soil temperatures drop off precipitously (a brief aside ... last week I was in mid-40s C temps in Liuwa Plains NP, Kalabo, Mongu, Senanga, Sesheke, Livingstone, and Chirundu ... maybe I'll write briefly about ringing the west and south, maybe not. Anyway, the precipitous drop means soil temps go down to low 30s/high 20s ... still plenty of heating units even in mulched soils). Once these temps drop (and some moisture comes into play), saprotrophs and heterotrophs start breaking down organic material in the soil, which is then  mineralized into plant available forms (plants don't chew raw nutrients ... they suck it up as a solution, another reason moisture is key). Anyway, flush is the real word ... it's there and gone in a hurry as our soil temps are generally high, and in farmed fields, the tradition of burning crop residues prior to planting reduces available organic matter. The microbes essentially eat and reproduce themselves out of house and home in a hurry, even faster if they till the soil (which increases oxidation and mineralization rates by aerobic bacteria. Anyway, long and short is that if you can catch that flush, especially in maize, you get a huge boost in the critical first four weeks of the plant growth, effectively developing a much more effective photosynthetic engine. 

• Daylength:  Maize is a sun-loving plant; not a surprise, given the demands it puts on the photosynthetic outputs (big stalk, heavy cobs, etc). We don't see this much in temperate climes as we have comparatively long summer days (heat and degree days are more the problem). However, in Zambia, days range from 13 hours in the summer (with longer in the south) to 11 hours in the winter. Catching as much sun as possible means more photosynthetic output, and consequently, a bigger plant. Some estimates show that yield loses from planting after November 25th equal 2% of potential yield per day (!). Also, and I'm wandering out onto thin ice, but maize often flowers (depending on the genotypes) based off the daylength, which can mean some plants may flower prior to being "ready" (growth-wise) to flower. It, like all aspects of maize, are somewhat strange and fascinating ... a great thesis from a Zambian student at Iowa State in the late 1980s explains somewhat why tropical maize grown in the temperate zones gets really big (leafy) but produces little (something I've observed as well). 

• Rain: This damnable ENSO (el Nino) event is going to make life miserable for farmers despite rainbows, prayers, days of fasting, etc. (Appealing to the Almighty is understandable and I often do so myself, but the extent that it actively destroys agency and responsibility gets a bit wearisome). Anyway, we are going to have short (late start, early finish) rains, and likely low annual accumulations between October and April, the months in which nearly all the rain falls and which we typically measure. The earlier you plant, and combined with the above, the more of that rain you catch, the better the yield. 

Long and short, plant early ... and not just maize! 

Notes from ZNFU Friday Brief (Week 46) (My notes in red text):

The Minister of Agriculture, Hon. Given Lubinda, MP has assured maize farmers in Zambia that maize markets will still be available for the 2015/2016 crop despite the increasing input costs that farmers are currently experiencing. The Minister said this when ZNFU President, Dr Nguleka and her team presented an Issues paper on the increasing costs of maize production for the 2015/2016 crop at the Ministry of Agriculture on Friday 13^th November 2015. The Minister assured maize farmers that government will allow market forces (demand and supply) to operate in order to ensure farmers get a better price for their crop. Hon. Lubinda observed that farming is a business and government will continue to provide a conducive environment aimed at encouraging further investment in the sector.

I was at the recent IAPRI conference for Western and Southern Provinces (same day) and he (Hon. Lubinda) was in attendance. Welcome relief (I'm on Minister of Agriculture #4 or 5 since 2010) as he seems fairly straightforward, though no one could ever match Bob Sichinga's sensayuma. Anyway, if they want farming to be a business, GRZ needs to pull out of both FISP and FRA. Lubinda gets that, but maize subsidies are like holding the proverbial political wolf by the ears: you don't like it, but you sure as hell don't want to let go.

SUNFLOWER PRODUCTION: THE BLOOMING INDUSTRY

The oilseed stakeholders met on 11^th November at the ZNFU offices to review the market situation of soya beans and other oilseeds. Whilst expressing appreciation the importance of maintaining export relations, the stakeholders agreed that there was need for stakeholder consultations before any exports of soya beans could be allowed so as to support the growth of the soya beans value chain. During the deliberations, the farmers indicated that there was need for traders and processors to enter into pre-planting contracts with the farmers, as uncertainty over the markets affects the farmer’s decision on what quantities of the crop to grow. The farmers were assured that demand of soya beans would be high in 2016 and that some off-takers were ready to sign supply contracts with the farmers.

The stakeholders were informed that there was readily available sunflower market with the demand in 2015 projected at least 50,000MT by oilseed crusher with a potential to expand further should supply increase. Farmers were encouraged to grow high oleic sunflower varieties to attract premium prices.  Stakeholders however bemoaned the inadequate supply of high yielding sunflower seed varieties on the local market and proposed that seed companies should be engaged for sustainable growth of the sunflower industry.

I take some pride in being part of the introduction of sunflowers into Western Province in 2010 and 2011. However, despite it growing fine (if planted early) in Zambia with minimal inputs and efforts, it is still planted on a relatively low scale. The whole out-grower scheme would be ideal but for the fact that our farming season straddles the fiscal year turnover. The farmers have it right on this; knowing the price in advance would likely guarantee production, as marketing points for sunflower are not nearly as ubiquitous as maize.

 2015 WHEAT PRODUCTION ESTIMATED AT OVER 300,000 TONS

The ZNFU wheat and barley commodity committee met on Thursday 12^th November 2015 to review the 2015 wheat production estimates. Based on information captured through satellite imagery, the total area under wheat in 2015 was 46,156 hectares out of which, 42,564Ha was observed to be normal, 1,916Ha had somewhat stressed/below average wheat while 1,675ha had stressed wheat. The total production has been estimated at 309,100 of wheat while the 2015 barley crop harvest has been pegged at 8,800tons. The farmers expressed concern on the high levels of uncommitted wheat crop still available in the farmers’ hands with little propensity by the millers to purchase the crop. The meeting was further informed that the estimated national wheat consumption requirement is 387,193MT. It was however highlighted that due to load shedding, indication from the millers was that while there have been some attempts to invest in alternative sources of power, their normal production levels had dropped by about 30%. It was further stated that demand for flour and flour products was being affected by the rising cost of living.

Just a note ... nearly all wheat is grown by a relative handful of very large scale farmers (inclusive of quite a number of white ex-Zimbabweans) under pivot irrigation. It's sown just after the rains and irrigated throughout the early part of the dry season, then matures and dries under the later, hotter part of the dry season; usually they combine it in early October. It still is the strangest thing to go from a farmer working with a hoe on a quarter hectare to a person operating a 50 foot combine through 250ha of wheat in the same day.

WATER SHORTAGE HITS COPPERBELT

Copperbelt like many other districts in the country has experienced low water levels ever recorded with most perennial streams and wells drying up. Farmers in the countryside have expressed worry over the water crisis as most of their livestock depend on streams and wells for their water. Farmers have to walk long distances to fetch for water.  Others have resorted to drive to nearby towns to draw water in drums for their livestock, and for domestic use. A Mr. Mwale of Mufulira Murundu farming area explained that for the first time, he has witnessed a perennial stream drying up. "This is very sad, my animals are dying, vegetables completely wilting" Mr Mwale lamented. 

Meanwhile, a group of farmers in Ndola have mobilised themselves and have requested the regional office to assist in finding a borehole driller and negotiate the prices so that they can have boreholes in their farms as a measure to mitigate the water crisis. And a named borehole driller has since been approached and negotiations are currently underway.

Good thing climate change is just a myth ... right? More like what my friend Rolf Shenton says; Zambia's capacity to absorb rain is being destroyed as forests fall to charcoal and farms.

KATETE DC DISSOLVES ERRING CAC COMMITTEE

The District Commissioner for Katete district has dissolved the Camp Agriculture Committee (CAC) for Chilembwe Agricultural Camp after discovering that the CAC committee and the Camp Extension Officer could not account for k 20,000.00 contribution made by Cooperatives and other farmers groups for CAC activities. The CAC committee could not also account for 138 packs of fertilizer under the Farmer Input Support Program (FISP) which were allocated to the agricultural camp. During the meeting held on 6^th November 2015 the area Councilor for Chimwi Ward appealed to the DC through the DACO to consider replacing the Camp Extension Officer.

Typical FISP ... usually it doesn't get reported.

E-VOUCHER CARDS DISTRIBUTION ON COURSE

The distribution of FISP e-voucher in Mumbwa district has so far gone well with over 75% of the cards already issued to beneficiary farmers. More than 12,000 cards have been issued to the beneficiaries against the intended 16,239 beneficiaries as the exercise continues.

As usual, behind schedule ... 

At the same meeting last week, I was somewhat surprised by the tacit, subtle resistance to the e-vouchers, which have been in play by FAO, CFU, hell, even Concern since 2007ish. It's a relatively simple thing ... you get a credit card sized voucher with a fixed value, take it to a participating agrodealer, and redeem inputs against the value of that card ... agrodealers get paid fairly quickly, and there's zero transport costs to the government (the farmers collect the voucher). However, standard FISP distribution is a powerful expression of gift-giving (go read My African Friends and Money Matters) that accrues repute to the giver. Power. That's the tall beer. I have it figured they want it to fail because it deprives them of that power.

However, the exercise has faced a minor challenge in one agriculture camp of the district where a few farmers could not collect their cards due to some unexplained religious conviction. The farmers who could not pick up the cards belong to Mpusu Agriculture Camp north of Mumbwa district.

Huh...

FARMERS’ REPRESENTATIVE CALLS FOR INTRODUCTION OF THE FISP E-CARD IN ALL DISTRICTS

Kabompo District Farmers' Association (DFA) chairman, George Munyingu, has called on government to extend the use of the FISP e-voucher card to other districts in the country. Speaking during the Kabompo DFA executive committee meeting on Wednesday this week, Mr. Munyingu said the use of the e-card will bring sanity in the implementation of the FISP exercise. He further added that the use of the e-card will eliminate a lot of discrepancies currently being experienced under the FISP program. He cited some farmer organizations which do not have proven membership but are receiving huge amounts of input packs thereby disadvantaging real farmer organisations.

Read that vs. the bit above. Farmers like it because they are more in control of when they get their inputs.

FISP BENEFICIARY FARMERS STILL WAITING FOR SEED INPUTS

All the districts in North Western B region have not received the allocated seed. A check at the storage sheds in various districts found warehouse managers still waiting to receive the seed. The affected districts are Chavuma, Kabompo, Manyinga and Zambezi.

Another reason to switch to e-cards ... waiting on other people sucks.

Remember the poor.

10th November, 2015 - ZNFU Weekly Update and Agro-watch

The views expressed on this blog are the author's own, and do not reflect the views of Concern Worldwide. 

Bits and pieces of the weekly farm news that's fit to use from Agro-Watch, vol. 44 and the Friday Brief. As usual, my additions in red:

Agro-Watch 

Highlights [maize]

• Malawi’s grain marketing agency, ADMARC, adjusted their maize selling prices end of October from 3,000 Malawian Kwacha to K4, 000 per 50Kg bag (approx.US$7.19/50kg bag or Zambian Kwacha 93.5/bag). Maize prices have been rising on the Malawian market due to sporadic supplies with other private traders quoted to be selling for as high as K8, 000/ 50kg bag (≈US$14.38/50kg bag or ZMW187 per 50kg bag).
• With the close of the FRA maize purchase season on 31st October 2015, Zambia’s food reserve agency purchased a total of 596,081MT during the 2015/16 marketing season. Original target was 500,000MT, but their overruns were far less than last year's spectacular 400,000MT purchase ... I suspect the deepening currency crisis and the govt.'s lack of money have as much to  do with this as the smaller amounts available on the market. Pressure has continued to mount from the Millers for government to release maize on the local market at subsidized prices to lower [mealie-meal] prices . They are pressured by Zambia's very substantial urban population (and consequently, the Government ... everyone remembers that Kaunda's downfall was hastened by unavailability of food). So many Zambians purchase mealie-meal, it gets a bit worrisome. The initial indication that maize would be offloaded at K85/50kg bag has been put on ice as government reviews the matter further.
• Indicative local offer prices were averaging ZMW1.6/Kg with the highest offer pegged at ZMW2.3/kg on the ZNFU market price information system.
• Maize mealie-meal 25kg in Mayukwayukwa is selling at K130~140; 10kg is K50~55.

Friday Brief

CENTRAL REGION

METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT CAUTIONS FARMERS

Meteorological Department in central province has urged farmers to approach this season with caution as weather forecasts are showing normal to below normal rains. Felix Imbwae who is the Provincial Meteorological officer for Central Province said this when ZNFU officers visited him at his office. He further said that farmers should consider planting drought resistant varieties and early to medium maturing ones. And Mr. Imbwae has urged farmers to go for conservation farming practices as they remain the best option in times of less rainfall. I wonder which practices; I've realized recently that almost everyone sees (literally) CA as planting basins. Soil cover is an afterthought, and crop rotation an outright puzzle. 

HEAVY DOWNPOUR SENDS FARMERS IN PANIC MOOD

Heavy rains that characterized most parts of central province have sent farmers mostly small scale into serious panic. The start of the rain season has found most farmers unprepared due to challenging circumstances. Funny, it starts pretty much the same time every year. How did this catch farmers unawares? Some farmers have indicated that they expect a challenging farming season due to high inputs prices and delayed FRA payments. Which of course, you can't do without ... right? Meanwhile, some farmers have complained that tractor owners have also taken advantage of the prevailing situation and adjusted prices for Land Tillage upwards. Last year most farmers in the province were charged between k300 to k400 for land tillage per hectare but now it’s between K500 to K650. Ah, the "Dollah" strikes again. Price of everything has climbed, sort of like a run on the bank. Everyone complains when the kwacha (and prices) rises in response to the dollar as they have the same amount of kwacha, albeit it is worth much less.

EASTERN REGION

PETAUKE FARMERS BEMOAN HIGH FERTILIZER PRICES

Farmers in Petauke District have lamented the rapid escalation in fertilizer prices and have since asked the government to intervene in the matter. Not so much the independent yeoman farmers of the Jefferson ideal. Farmers have described the situation as a hindrance to the growth of agriculture sector in the country, adding that if the situation is left unchecked then many rural households will languish in poverty because many of them depend on farming. Again, is there no way to do it without fertilizer? Fertilizer prices have increased by over 100% from last year’s prices. A bit of a stretch, but yes, it has gone up at least 50%. A check by ZNFU in the district found that D Compound was trading at k 420.00 while Urea at K 375.00. I'm surprised it's not worse ... in the West, these are more like K450 and K400.

KATETE RECEIVES HEAVY RAINS

Katete district this week on 3^rd of November 2015 received heavy rains. The rains which lasted for over 3 hours covered the entire district and this caused panic among farmers especially those that have not yet received their payment from the Food Reserve Agency where they supplied their maize. Not much structural agency assigned to farmers, but you see them stuck in the same ruts all the time. Always grow maize. Always sell maize to FRA. Always delayed wait for FRA to pay. Further delays waiting for FISP to arrive. Repeat annually for 8 years. Similarly Nyimba and Petauke districts also received some measured quantities of rains in most parts. 

NORTHERN REGION

FARMERS ANXIOUSLY AWAIT FISP DISTRIBUTION COMMENCEMENT

With the onset of rains, farmers in Mungwi are beginning get worried over the delay in the distribution of FISP inputs to various camps. The chairperson of Mungwi DFA, David Ng’andu has said that the delay in the distribution will negatively affect farming this season. And the DFA chairperson has expressed sadness (my heart does not go out to the better-off farmers who won't get subsidized inputs intended for the poor to whom my heart does go) at the reduced fertilizer allocation to the district at a time when the number of potential beneficiaries is increasing. [The] Government in Zambia is perceived by rural folks as a big yawning pocket full of money, largely because of its poor transparency in terms of how money is spent, and historically, Zambia's full-court press of socialism during the one-party state days. 

So far only Urea fertilizers have been delivered while D compound and seed have not yet been delivered to the district. That's helpful, they need Urea (top-dressing) around Christmas, but the seed and D needs to be around by two weeks ago. Again ... same thing every year. 

LUAPULA REGION

FARMERS BEMOAN DELAYED FRA PAYMENTS

Farmers in Mansa district have expressed disappointment over the delayed payments for the maize they supplied to the Food Reserve Agency (FRA).  The farmers have complained that the Agency had not adhered to the stipulated marketing modalities of paying them within two weeks after delivery of the commodity. Please tell me you notice the same theme I've noticed for over 8 years, and understand why I bemoan and am saddened by the state of farming in Zambia. 

November 2nd, 2015 - ZNFU Friday Brief, Week #44

The views expressed in this blog are the opinions of the author, and do not reflect the views of Concern Worldwide.

As I peer out the office window, I see what the collective corpus of Zambian agriculture has been waiting to see for a long time; darkness brought on by burgeoning dark clouds and the first breathe of cool air in months. Not 30 minutes I ran out to sow the small plot I've prepared next to the office with Crotalaria (sunnhemp, red and black) and Mucuna (velvet beans); the hope is that they will emerge quickly and overwhelm the other weeds, particularly the nasty couch grass (Cynodon dactylon), the bane of all fertile, tilled land on this new and ancient continent.

This first rain is as eagerly awaited by agriculturalists as I suppose it is by farmers; reason being is that the rural poor tend to be aware of the date, but understandably, fall into something of a lethargic mode due to the heat of October. "understandably" is my concession to the fact that when temperatures hit the low forties Centigrade (around 110 Fahrenheit), your capacity to think, let alone plan and work, is severely limited. The incipient rain breaks this slumber; people shift into high gear, looking for money for seeds, renting oxen / ploughs / tractors, digging ridges / basins (damn things are hard to dig when the soil's bone-dry and rock-hard), etc.

"Oh! the joy." Wrote Clark when  he saw the Pacific. An immense wind carried every dry leave, every loose piece of grass, every mote of dust was carried from west to east (odd direction for the wind to rise). At approximately 16:48 GMT, the skies opened ... and now it's lashing down at a 30 degree angle off vertical. Great relief not to have to water the garden for awhile, though I'm sure there will be issues with the sewerage tonight (things get hardened up and half the drains clog.

ZNFU Friday Brief, Week #44 (my comments in red)

ANNUAL INFLATION RATE HITS 6 YEAR RECORD

Zambia’s annual rate of inflation was recorded at 14.3 percent for the month of October 2015 by the Central Statistical Office. This means that on average, prices increased by 14.3 percent between October 2014 and October 2015.  This is above the September 2015 inflation rate of 7.7 percent. The last time Zambia’s annual rate of inflation was at similar levels was in August 2009.  According to CSO, the sharp increase in the October 2015 inflation rate was as a result of increase in prices of both food and non-food items. Transport recorded the highest price increments of 23.8 percent. The only consumer, price index (CPI) groups that did not record any price increment were housing, electricity, gas and other fuels and communication which were constant in comparison to the other month 

ZNFU APPEARS IN PARLIAMENT TO MAKE SUBMISSIONS ON THE EMPLOYMENT (AMENDMENT) BILL

The Zambia National Farmers’ Union (ZNFU) appeared before the parliamentary committee on Economic Affairs, Energy and Labour to make submissions on the Employment (Amendment) Bill on Thursday 29^th October 2015 at parliament buildings. The Union was happy that the Bill took on board key issues that ZNFU lobbied the Minister of Labour last year during stakeholder consultations. For example, the Bill provides for “seasonal employment” which is defined as employment under a contract of service where timing and duration of the contract is influenced by seasonal factors such as climate, agricultural or business peak cycle. This is good especially for members growing crops such as tobacco that has an 11 months business cycle. Further, the Bill also allows “casual employees” (I refer to them as the hunger serfs), and that this relates to a person whose employment is not permanent in nature; and does not require any skill in the performance of the work done for a period of 6 months.

However, the Union was concerned that employers under fixed term contract would still be required to pay service benefits (such as 3 months basic pay per year served on retirement, 2 months per year served on redundancy, e.t.c. on top of NAPSA service benefits. They have a legitimate beef here ... every month employers pay NAPSA (Natl Pension Scheme)   which is somewhat like Social Security; this  The Union noted that these service benefits are a liability to members as they are not accounted for in taxes because they are future expenses for employers.  In addition, many farmers in Zambia, especially emergent farmers, are not covered by collective agreements and will be unable to create jobs if they have to abide by the minimum wages and conditions of service Act.

I included this because most emergent farm labour is very under the table; the further out you go from the Hub, the more labour is paid in food. It's not a labour market; on the contrary, this year, there's more hungry mouths attached to those idle hands. We were talking to some farmers a few weeks back and they explained you get a basin of cassava for digging a quarter hectare (over half an acre), and that finding work had gotten harder and harder. Concern calls this hidden hunger; there is food around, but many can't get to it. 

June 1st, 2015 - ZNFU Notes

Excerpts from the ZNFU weekly update (Week 22, 2015)

LUBINDA DISSOLVES ALL AGRICULTURAL BOARDS AND TRUSTS

The Minister of Agriculture and Livestock, Hon. Given Lubinda, on Tuesday 26^th May dissolved all the boards and Trusts under his Ministry in a bid to increase their operational efficiencies.  The boards dissolved include the Food Reserve Agency (FRA), Nitrogen Chemicals of Zambia (NCZ), Tobacco Board of Zambia (TBZ), Cotton Board of Zambia (CBZ), Zambia Coffee Board (ZCB) and Dairy Development Board (DDB). The In-Service Training Trust (ISTT), Golden Valley Agriculture Research Trust (GART), Livestock Development Trust (LDT) and Cotton Development Trust (CDT) have also been dissolved. All the functions of the boards and trusts will be handled by the two Permanent Secretaries of MAL until new boards and trusts are instituted.

CHISAMBA FARMERS COMMEND ZNFU FOR THE WATER ACT UPDATE

Farmers in Chisamba district have commended the ZNFU for an update on the latest developments being implemented by the Water Resource Management Authority (WARMA). This happened during a special farmers meeting held at Fringilla Club in Chisamba on 28^th May, 2015 to discuss pertinent issues in the agricultural sector. Among the updates given included the fact that WARMA has continued with consultative meetings with farmers on the implementation of the Water Act of 2011, and that farmers active in irrigation are encouraged to voluntarily be part of water users associations as decisions on water use and allocation will start from recommendations of this structure.

The meeting also heard that permit application fees have been proposed for ratification as per the following categories;

• K 500 for permit application to abstract water 365, 000m³ per year,
• K 100 for permit application to abstract water between 12, 000 and 365, 000m³ per year,
• K 1000 for any mining or hydropower permit application and K 100 for any other permits application.

The meeting was also informed that the ZNFU is actively engaging WARMA on some provisions in the Water Act of 2011, such as those which might disadvantage agricultural investments, vis-à-vis change from water user rights to permits.

And during the same meeting, farmers urged the ZNFU to closely monitor developments in the importation of the 75,000mt of wheat which was recently announced by government, so that the importation does not happen at a time when the local wheat is ready for marketing, as this may depress the local prices.

Further to the deliberations during the meeting, the farmers emphasised that the local beef industry should at all cost be protected from imports as the country cannot compete favourably in the region because imported beef is assumed to be highly subsidized and fed on GMO products and growth stimulants. 

May 18, 2015 - Ministerial Statement on Crop Forecast (14th May, 2015)

(Note: Copied verbatim from Ministerial Statement received 18th May 2015)

REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND LIVESTOCK

MINISTER OF AGRICULTURE AND LIVESTOCK

HON. GIVEN LUBINDA, MP

ON

THE CROP FORECASTING SURVEY FOR THE 2014/2015 AGRICULTURAL SEASON AND THE FOOD BALANCE STATUS FOR THE 2015/2016 MARKETING SEASON

14^th   May, 2015

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN;

IT IS MY PLEASURE TO ANNOUNCE TO THE NATION THE COUNTRY’S ESTIMATED CROP PRODUCTION FOR THE 2014/2015 AGRICULTURAL SEASON AS WELL AS THE COUNTRY’S NATIONAL FOOD BALANCE FOR THE MARKETING SEASON COVERING THE PERIOD FROM   1ST MAY 2015 TO 30TH APRIL 2016.

THE CROP PRODUCTION ESTIMATES THAT I AM RELEASING TODAY ARE BASED ON A UNIVERSALLY APPLIED SCIENTIFIC SURVEY METHOD THAT IS USED EVERY YEAR. THE SURVEY IS JOINTLY CONDUCTED BY THE MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND LIVESTOCK AND THE CENTRAL STATISTICAL OFFICE (CSO) AND COVERS ALL THE DISTRICTS OF THE COUNTRY.

THIS YEAR, MAIZE PRODUCTION IS FORECAST TO DECLINE TO 2,618,221 METRIC TONNES FROM 3,350,671   METRIC TONNES, A DECLINE OF 21.86 PERCENT. THE NATIONAL AVERAGE YIELD RATE FOR MAIZE HAS DROPPED FROM 2.36 METRIC TONNES PER HECTARE TO 1.75 METRIC TONNES PER HECTARE. THIS REPRESENTS A DECLINE OF 26 PERCENT. SMALL AND MEDIUM SCALE FARMERS HAVE RECORDED AN AVERAGE MAIZE YIELD RATE OF 1.68 METRIC TONNES PER HECTARE, WHILST LARGE SCALE FARMERS HAVE RECORDED AN AVERAGE MAIZE YIELD RATE OF 4.36 METRIC TONNES PER HECTARE.

DESPITE THE DECREASE IN MAIZE PRODUCTION, I WOULD LIKE TO INFORM YOU THAT THE AREA PLANTED TO MAIZE AND MOST OTHER CROPS HAS INCREASED COMPARED TO LAST SEASON. AREA UNDER MAIZE INCREASED BY 5.3 PERCENT TO 1,494,451 IN THE 2014/2015 SEASON FROM 1,419,326 HECTARES LAST SEASON. USAGE OF FERTILIZER ON MAIZE BY FARMERS INCREASED BY 12 PERCENT IN 2014/2015 COMPARED TO LAST SEASON. THE USE OF FERTILIZER AND HYBRID SEED INCREASED DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THE QUANTITY OF FERTILIZER AND SEED DISTRIBUTED BY GOVERNMENT THROUGH THE FISP AS WELL AS THE CONTINUING EXTENSION EFFORTS TO IMPROVE CROP PRODUCTION MANAGEMENT PRACTICES.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN

PRODUCTION OF SORGHUM AND MILLET IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 29.7 PERCENT TO 8,123 METRIC TONNES FROM 11,557 METRIC TONNE LAST SEASON.  

PRODUCTION OF MILLET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 4.8 PERCENT TO           31,967 METRIC TONNES FROM 30,504 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.

PRODUCTION OF RICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 48.6 PERCENT TO           25,514 METRIC TONNES FROM 49,640 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.

PRODUCTION OF GROUNDNUTS IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 22.4 PERCENT TO 111,429 METRIC TONNES FROM 143,591 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.

PRODUCTION OF SOYA BEANS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 5.7 PERCENT TO 226,323 METRIC TONNES FROM 214,179 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON. THE NATIONAL YIELD RATE FOR SOYA BEANS HAS DECLINED BY 5 PERCENT. HOWEVER, THE AREA PLANTED TO SOYA BEANS INCREASED BY 11.2 PERCENT. THIS INCREASE IN THE AREA PLANTED TO SOYA BEANS UNDERSCORES MY MINISTRY’S COMMITMENT TO SUPPORTING ZAMBIA’S OILSEED PROCESSING SECTOR.

I WOULD LIKE TO ENCOURAGE OUR FARMERS TO CONTINUE INCREASING THE HECTARAGE UNDER OIL SEED CROPS SUCH AS SOYA BEANS AND SUNFLOWER TO ENABLE ZAMBIA BECOME SELF SUFFICIENT IN COOKING OIL.

PRODUCTION OF SEED COTTON IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 13.7 PERCENT TO 103,889 METRIC TONNES FROM 120,314 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON. HOWEVER, AREA PLANTED TO SEED COTTON DID INCREASE BY 18.4 PERCENT TO 158,619 HECTARES COMPARED TO LAST SEASON.

PRODUCTION OF SWEET POTATOES IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 21.2 PERCENT TO 118,330 METRIC TONNES FROM 150,158 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.

PRODUCTION OF IRISH POTATOES IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY 35.7 PERCENT TO 45,902 METRIC TONNES FROM       33,833 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON. THE INCREASE IN THE PRODUCTION OF IRISH POTATOES IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE LARGE SCALE FARMING SECTOR. I WISH TO ENCOURAGE OUR SMALLHOLDER FARMERS TO ALSO INCREASE THEIR EFFORTS AT CROP DIVERSIFICATION.

PRODUCTION OF MIXED BEANS IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 18.4 PERCENT TO 50,398 METRIC TONNES FROM 61,749 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.

PRODUCTION OF VIRGINIA AND BURLEY TOBACCO IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 24.1 PERCENT AND 36.4 PERCENT TO 19,811 METRIC TONNES AND 6,083 METRIC TONNES RESPECTIVELY

ACCORDING TO THE CROP FORECAST SURVEY RESULTS, NATIONAL CASSAVA FLOUR EQUIVALENT PRODUCTION FOR THE 2014/2015 SEASON HAS BEEN FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 3.6 PERCENT TO  952,847 METRIC TONNES COMPARED TO  919,497 METRIC TONNES OF CASSAVA FLOUR EQUIVALENT, PRODUCED DURING THE LAST SEASON.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN

YOU WILL NOTE THAT THE YIELD RATES FOR MANY CROPS HAS DECLINED IN THE 2014/2015 SEASON COMPARED TO LAST SEASON. THE GENERAL DECREASE IS MAINLY DUE TO THE FOLLOWING FACTORS:

1. THE LATE ONSET OF RAINS WHICH LED TO LATE PLANTING OF MOST CROPS; AND
2. THE POOR DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL WHICH CHARACTERIZED THE SEASON CULMINATING IN A PROLONGED DRY SPELL DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN

THE NATIONAL FOOD BALANCE SHEET FOR THE 2015/2016 MARKETING SEASON BASED ON THE CROP FORECASTING SURVEY  SHOWS THAT THE COUNTRY HAS PRODUCED SUFFICIENT MAIZE FOR BOTH HUMAN CONSUMPTION AND INDUSTRIAL USE. AS ALREADY STATED, TOTAL MAIZE PRODUCTION IN THE 2014/2015 SEASON HAS BEEN ESTIMATED TO BE 2,618,221 METRIC TONNES. THE COUNTRY ALSO HAS A MAIZE CARRY-OVER STOCK AMOUNTING TO 1,345,401 METRIC TONNES. MOST OF THIS MAIZE IS UNDER SAFE STORAGE WITH THE FRA, PRIVATE TRADERS AND COMMERCIAL FARMERS. WHEN THE MAIZE CARRY-OVER STOCK FROM LAST SEASON IS ADDED TO THE MAIZE PRODUCTION FOR THE 2014/2015 AGRICULTURAL SEASON, THE TOTAL SUPPLY OF MAIZE AVAILABLE FOR THE 2015/2016 MARKETING SEASON IS 3,963,622 METRIC TONNES.

FOR AN ESTIMATED POPULATION OF 15.7 MILLION PEOPLE, THE FOOD BALANCE SHEET SHOWS THAT TOTAL MAIZE REQUIRED FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION, INDUSTRIAL USE AND OTHER COMMITMENTS AMOUNTS TO 3,086,854 METRIC TONNES. THE TOTAL MAIZE REQUIREMENTS INCLUDE AN ANTICIPATED NATIONAL STRATEGIC RESERVE STOCK OF 500,000 METRIC TONNES TO BE HELD BY THE FOOD RESERVE AGENCY.

WHEN TOTAL MAIZE REQUIREMENTS ARE SUBTRACTED FROM TOTAL MAIZE AVAILABILITY, THE FOOD BALANCE SHEET INDICATES THAT THE COUNTRY HAS RECORDED A MAIZE SURPLUS OF 876,738 METRIC TONNES.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN;

THE WHEAT CROP FOR THE 2014/2015 SEASON IS CURRENTLY BEING PLANTED. HOWEVER, PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE COUNTRY IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ITS WHEAT PRODUCTION THIS SEASON COMPARED TO LAST YEAR. DETAILED ESTIMATES FOR THE ANTICIPATED WHEAT PRODUCTION WILL BE UPDATED LATER IN THE SEASON.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN;

I WISH TO INFORM THE NATION THAT GOVERNMENT, THROUGH THE FOOD RESERVE AGENCY (FRA), WILL PURCHASE 500,000 METRIC TONNES OF STRATEGIC RESERVES.

LET ME HOWEVER, ENCOURAGE THE PRIVATE SECTOR TO CONTINUE TO FULLY PARTICIPATE IN CROP MARKETING BOTH LOCALLY AND INTERNATIONALLY. MY MINISTRY WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE EXPORT PERMITS TO VARIOUS PRIVATE SECTOR PLAYERS TO EXPORT OUR SURPLUS GRAIN TO REGIONAL MARKETS. THIS WILL BE DONE WITHOUT COMPROMISING NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY. LET ME EMPHASISE THE FACT THAT GOVERNMENT IS KEEN TO SEE MORE PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION IN THE PURCHASING OF GRAIN FROM OUR HARD WORKING FARMERS.

THE FRA WILL IN DUE COURSE, ANNOUNCE THE PURCHASE PRICE FOR MAIZE FOR THE 2015/2016 MARKETING SEASON. THE FRA WILL ONLY COMMENCE MAIZE PURCHASES ONCE THE MOISTURE CONTENT HAS REACHED DESIRED LOW LEVELS. LET ME TAKE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO INFORM THE NATION THAT I WILL SOON BE CONVENING A MEETING WITH RELEVANT STAKEHOLDERS TO DISCUSS AMONG OTHER THINGS, THE WAY FORWARD ON CROP MARKETING FOR THIS SEASON.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN

LET ME CONCLUDE BY ONCE AGAIN THANKING THE FARMERS OF ZAMBIA FOR THEIR CONTINUED HARD.

THIS IS THE OFFICIAL SUMMARY OF THE CROP FORECAST SURVEY RESULTS FOR THE 2014/2015 AGRICULTURAL SEASON. DETAILED RESULTS CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS AND EARLY WARNING SECTION OF MY MINISTRY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL STATISTICAL OFFICE.

I THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION.