May 18, 2015 - Ministerial Statement on Crop Forecast (14th May, 2015)

(Note: Copied verbatim from Ministerial Statement received 18th May 2015)

REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND LIVESTOCK

MINISTER OF AGRICULTURE AND LIVESTOCK

HON. GIVEN LUBINDA, MP

ON

THE CROP FORECASTING SURVEY FOR THE 2014/2015 AGRICULTURAL SEASON AND THE FOOD BALANCE STATUS FOR THE 2015/2016 MARKETING SEASON

14^th   May, 2015

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN;

IT IS MY PLEASURE TO ANNOUNCE TO THE NATION THE COUNTRY’S ESTIMATED CROP PRODUCTION FOR THE 2014/2015 AGRICULTURAL SEASON AS WELL AS THE COUNTRY’S NATIONAL FOOD BALANCE FOR THE MARKETING SEASON COVERING THE PERIOD FROM   1ST MAY 2015 TO 30TH APRIL 2016.

THE CROP PRODUCTION ESTIMATES THAT I AM RELEASING TODAY ARE BASED ON A UNIVERSALLY APPLIED SCIENTIFIC SURVEY METHOD THAT IS USED EVERY YEAR. THE SURVEY IS JOINTLY CONDUCTED BY THE MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND LIVESTOCK AND THE CENTRAL STATISTICAL OFFICE (CSO) AND COVERS ALL THE DISTRICTS OF THE COUNTRY.

THIS YEAR, MAIZE PRODUCTION IS FORECAST TO DECLINE TO 2,618,221 METRIC TONNES FROM 3,350,671   METRIC TONNES, A DECLINE OF 21.86 PERCENT. THE NATIONAL AVERAGE YIELD RATE FOR MAIZE HAS DROPPED FROM 2.36 METRIC TONNES PER HECTARE TO 1.75 METRIC TONNES PER HECTARE. THIS REPRESENTS A DECLINE OF 26 PERCENT. SMALL AND MEDIUM SCALE FARMERS HAVE RECORDED AN AVERAGE MAIZE YIELD RATE OF 1.68 METRIC TONNES PER HECTARE, WHILST LARGE SCALE FARMERS HAVE RECORDED AN AVERAGE MAIZE YIELD RATE OF 4.36 METRIC TONNES PER HECTARE.

DESPITE THE DECREASE IN MAIZE PRODUCTION, I WOULD LIKE TO INFORM YOU THAT THE AREA PLANTED TO MAIZE AND MOST OTHER CROPS HAS INCREASED COMPARED TO LAST SEASON. AREA UNDER MAIZE INCREASED BY 5.3 PERCENT TO 1,494,451 IN THE 2014/2015 SEASON FROM 1,419,326 HECTARES LAST SEASON. USAGE OF FERTILIZER ON MAIZE BY FARMERS INCREASED BY 12 PERCENT IN 2014/2015 COMPARED TO LAST SEASON. THE USE OF FERTILIZER AND HYBRID SEED INCREASED DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THE QUANTITY OF FERTILIZER AND SEED DISTRIBUTED BY GOVERNMENT THROUGH THE FISP AS WELL AS THE CONTINUING EXTENSION EFFORTS TO IMPROVE CROP PRODUCTION MANAGEMENT PRACTICES.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN

PRODUCTION OF SORGHUM AND MILLET IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 29.7 PERCENT TO 8,123 METRIC TONNES FROM 11,557 METRIC TONNE LAST SEASON.  

PRODUCTION OF MILLET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 4.8 PERCENT TO           31,967 METRIC TONNES FROM 30,504 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.

PRODUCTION OF RICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 48.6 PERCENT TO           25,514 METRIC TONNES FROM 49,640 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.

PRODUCTION OF GROUNDNUTS IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 22.4 PERCENT TO 111,429 METRIC TONNES FROM 143,591 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.

PRODUCTION OF SOYA BEANS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 5.7 PERCENT TO 226,323 METRIC TONNES FROM 214,179 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON. THE NATIONAL YIELD RATE FOR SOYA BEANS HAS DECLINED BY 5 PERCENT. HOWEVER, THE AREA PLANTED TO SOYA BEANS INCREASED BY 11.2 PERCENT. THIS INCREASE IN THE AREA PLANTED TO SOYA BEANS UNDERSCORES MY MINISTRY’S COMMITMENT TO SUPPORTING ZAMBIA’S OILSEED PROCESSING SECTOR.

I WOULD LIKE TO ENCOURAGE OUR FARMERS TO CONTINUE INCREASING THE HECTARAGE UNDER OIL SEED CROPS SUCH AS SOYA BEANS AND SUNFLOWER TO ENABLE ZAMBIA BECOME SELF SUFFICIENT IN COOKING OIL.

PRODUCTION OF SEED COTTON IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 13.7 PERCENT TO 103,889 METRIC TONNES FROM 120,314 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON. HOWEVER, AREA PLANTED TO SEED COTTON DID INCREASE BY 18.4 PERCENT TO 158,619 HECTARES COMPARED TO LAST SEASON.

PRODUCTION OF SWEET POTATOES IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 21.2 PERCENT TO 118,330 METRIC TONNES FROM 150,158 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.

PRODUCTION OF IRISH POTATOES IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY 35.7 PERCENT TO 45,902 METRIC TONNES FROM       33,833 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON. THE INCREASE IN THE PRODUCTION OF IRISH POTATOES IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE LARGE SCALE FARMING SECTOR. I WISH TO ENCOURAGE OUR SMALLHOLDER FARMERS TO ALSO INCREASE THEIR EFFORTS AT CROP DIVERSIFICATION.

PRODUCTION OF MIXED BEANS IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 18.4 PERCENT TO 50,398 METRIC TONNES FROM 61,749 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.

PRODUCTION OF VIRGINIA AND BURLEY TOBACCO IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 24.1 PERCENT AND 36.4 PERCENT TO 19,811 METRIC TONNES AND 6,083 METRIC TONNES RESPECTIVELY

ACCORDING TO THE CROP FORECAST SURVEY RESULTS, NATIONAL CASSAVA FLOUR EQUIVALENT PRODUCTION FOR THE 2014/2015 SEASON HAS BEEN FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 3.6 PERCENT TO  952,847 METRIC TONNES COMPARED TO  919,497 METRIC TONNES OF CASSAVA FLOUR EQUIVALENT, PRODUCED DURING THE LAST SEASON.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN

YOU WILL NOTE THAT THE YIELD RATES FOR MANY CROPS HAS DECLINED IN THE 2014/2015 SEASON COMPARED TO LAST SEASON. THE GENERAL DECREASE IS MAINLY DUE TO THE FOLLOWING FACTORS:

1. THE LATE ONSET OF RAINS WHICH LED TO LATE PLANTING OF MOST CROPS; AND
2. THE POOR DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL WHICH CHARACTERIZED THE SEASON CULMINATING IN A PROLONGED DRY SPELL DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN

THE NATIONAL FOOD BALANCE SHEET FOR THE 2015/2016 MARKETING SEASON BASED ON THE CROP FORECASTING SURVEY  SHOWS THAT THE COUNTRY HAS PRODUCED SUFFICIENT MAIZE FOR BOTH HUMAN CONSUMPTION AND INDUSTRIAL USE. AS ALREADY STATED, TOTAL MAIZE PRODUCTION IN THE 2014/2015 SEASON HAS BEEN ESTIMATED TO BE 2,618,221 METRIC TONNES. THE COUNTRY ALSO HAS A MAIZE CARRY-OVER STOCK AMOUNTING TO 1,345,401 METRIC TONNES. MOST OF THIS MAIZE IS UNDER SAFE STORAGE WITH THE FRA, PRIVATE TRADERS AND COMMERCIAL FARMERS. WHEN THE MAIZE CARRY-OVER STOCK FROM LAST SEASON IS ADDED TO THE MAIZE PRODUCTION FOR THE 2014/2015 AGRICULTURAL SEASON, THE TOTAL SUPPLY OF MAIZE AVAILABLE FOR THE 2015/2016 MARKETING SEASON IS 3,963,622 METRIC TONNES.

FOR AN ESTIMATED POPULATION OF 15.7 MILLION PEOPLE, THE FOOD BALANCE SHEET SHOWS THAT TOTAL MAIZE REQUIRED FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION, INDUSTRIAL USE AND OTHER COMMITMENTS AMOUNTS TO 3,086,854 METRIC TONNES. THE TOTAL MAIZE REQUIREMENTS INCLUDE AN ANTICIPATED NATIONAL STRATEGIC RESERVE STOCK OF 500,000 METRIC TONNES TO BE HELD BY THE FOOD RESERVE AGENCY.

WHEN TOTAL MAIZE REQUIREMENTS ARE SUBTRACTED FROM TOTAL MAIZE AVAILABILITY, THE FOOD BALANCE SHEET INDICATES THAT THE COUNTRY HAS RECORDED A MAIZE SURPLUS OF 876,738 METRIC TONNES.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN;

THE WHEAT CROP FOR THE 2014/2015 SEASON IS CURRENTLY BEING PLANTED. HOWEVER, PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE COUNTRY IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ITS WHEAT PRODUCTION THIS SEASON COMPARED TO LAST YEAR. DETAILED ESTIMATES FOR THE ANTICIPATED WHEAT PRODUCTION WILL BE UPDATED LATER IN THE SEASON.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN;

I WISH TO INFORM THE NATION THAT GOVERNMENT, THROUGH THE FOOD RESERVE AGENCY (FRA), WILL PURCHASE 500,000 METRIC TONNES OF STRATEGIC RESERVES.

LET ME HOWEVER, ENCOURAGE THE PRIVATE SECTOR TO CONTINUE TO FULLY PARTICIPATE IN CROP MARKETING BOTH LOCALLY AND INTERNATIONALLY. MY MINISTRY WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE EXPORT PERMITS TO VARIOUS PRIVATE SECTOR PLAYERS TO EXPORT OUR SURPLUS GRAIN TO REGIONAL MARKETS. THIS WILL BE DONE WITHOUT COMPROMISING NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY. LET ME EMPHASISE THE FACT THAT GOVERNMENT IS KEEN TO SEE MORE PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION IN THE PURCHASING OF GRAIN FROM OUR HARD WORKING FARMERS.

THE FRA WILL IN DUE COURSE, ANNOUNCE THE PURCHASE PRICE FOR MAIZE FOR THE 2015/2016 MARKETING SEASON. THE FRA WILL ONLY COMMENCE MAIZE PURCHASES ONCE THE MOISTURE CONTENT HAS REACHED DESIRED LOW LEVELS. LET ME TAKE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO INFORM THE NATION THAT I WILL SOON BE CONVENING A MEETING WITH RELEVANT STAKEHOLDERS TO DISCUSS AMONG OTHER THINGS, THE WAY FORWARD ON CROP MARKETING FOR THIS SEASON.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN

LET ME CONCLUDE BY ONCE AGAIN THANKING THE FARMERS OF ZAMBIA FOR THEIR CONTINUED HARD.

THIS IS THE OFFICIAL SUMMARY OF THE CROP FORECAST SURVEY RESULTS FOR THE 2014/2015 AGRICULTURAL SEASON. DETAILED RESULTS CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS AND EARLY WARNING SECTION OF MY MINISTRY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL STATISTICAL OFFICE.

I THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION. 

World AIDS Day

Today is World AIDS Day (WAD). There isn't much going on because of the day; pulling people out of church (or bed) for the standard get-your-themed-Tshirts-on-and-march-behind-a-banner parades to celebrate, much like International Women's Day, Labour Day, Independence Day, Farmers' Day, etc., would go over like a fart said church. 

I didn't do much for the day; got up early, ran, went to church (whenever I'm in Lusaka on a Sunday, I try to attend the Dutch Reformed in Kabulonga), went shopping for some "luxury" items: four jars of chili pickle, two liters of light soy sauce, and 250g of Kasama coffee. Not to hard to spin my record when it comes to food, as long as there's enough. Came back, did a weightless workout, read the Sunday Post, the Bulletin & Record magazine, light lunch, and some online reading for tomorrow's meeting in Johannesburg.

HIV/AIDS does after awhile become part of the assumed landscape; like all things, the biggest curse the efforts facing the disease have is familiarity. New infections are supposedly at an ebb tide, the number infected (as a percentage) is falling, male circumcision is increasing, condom availability has gone up and ART is widely available. Contrasted with 2004 when I first arrived, and the change is startling; people are now more willing to admit been HIV+ (testing positive) for the disease, messages regarding prevention are a part (however small) of the social discourse, etc. All this good news causes people to relax somewhat; that's partly why we did a rural awareness campaign for the past week and a half leading up to WAD. We're integrating the message into our Conservation Agriculture project as well; however, it's less activism than design, making sure that their are methods that are HIV+ persons-friendly, i.e. low labor and big return.

On the farming front, the Post reported the current agriculture (Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, or MAL) minister, Robert Sichinga, apologized to farmers for the late delivery of subsidized farming inputs [under the Fertilizer Input Support Program or FISP]. Not surprising ... they were late last year, the year before that, 2010, etc. FISP is one of the major hang-ups facing modern day Zambia's agriculture ... it would be one thing if the government said "You know what? We're not delivering inputs at all this year." Doubtless farmers would lose their minds, and the urban sector would go nuts (as subsidizing maize ends up being a subsidy for urban consumers), but at least farmers would know not to wait for a chance at the FISP teat for something that won't arrive anytime soon.

On the flip side, if the inputs came on time and were targeted correctly, FISP might make a long term difference in giving the poor a leg up. According to IAPRI, most of the inputs lands accrue in the hands of farmers who don't really need the inputs per se (i.e., they have the capacity to purchase inputs on their own). Rumor has it that most of these farmers receive multiple packs (despite regulations stating that individuals should receive one pack only) and sell these at quite a profit, esp. given the past subsidy amount (> 80%). This effectively kills our agro-dealer market outside of the line-of-rail where commercialized, mainly white farmers have requirements for inputs other than maize, D-compound (10-20-10, 6% sulfur) and urea (46-0-0), as people who have money to buy fertilizer or seed are getting much of theirs for nearly free from the government.

Instead, we have in-between. Poorly targeted and poorly implemented over successive years has left farmers in a quandary; no one wants to abandon the cheap inputs (because they're cheap and show that the government "cares for" the rural poor). Therefore, they wait while the rains start falling, their fields as yet unplanted. They plant with uniform fertilizers across the world's 27th largest country (slightly larger than Texas) despite a staggering variety of soil and rainfall regimes. Agro-dealers stay away from investing in the maize market due to the price disadvantage; most keep no inventory, as they cannot depend on custom from nearby farmers who are awaiting FISP packs. A lose, lose, lose, lose situation. 

Not surprising therefore that unless Hon. Sichinga makes hay on his promises to deliver the remaining inputs before the end of December, he may swap jobs with someone as was the case earlier this year due to the slow distribution of inputs in 2012/13. Hopefully Zambia can somehow break out of this cycle before the inevitable decline in the copper price strips the shoes of the rest of the economy.