January 16th, 2016 - Not a viable field

This blog represents the views of the author's alone, and does not represent the views of his employer, Concern Worldwide.

News from the World of Maize:

Over the past few days, I hosted a friend of mine who works in southwestern Zambia and northern Malawi. He clued me in to some of the bits of information:

1. Maize stocks in Malawi are at spectacularly low levels ... he revealed a date of March 4th as the proverbial D-Day. I did a bit of digging online and FEWSNET has the following concurrence Currently food insecure populations in 12 districts spanning parts of the southern and northern regions are receiving assistance. Response programming to these areas and an additional 13 districts have enough funding for implementation through February 2016. Assistance originally planned for the month of March 2016 is uncertain due to a remaining 25 percent funding shortfall
2. It was interesting the deadline of March, which is keyed to the availability of direct budgetary aid, something which the Malawian government relies on to a greater extant that most countries in the region, a by-product of not being blessed [cursed] with mineral or other resources of the extraction variety. Part of what R. said got me trolling through the web; it appears that Malawi's President Peter Mutharika is under pressure to accept donor aid, particularly from DFiD, with some strings attached, namely that Malawi decriminalizes homosexuality. This has caused quite a stir in what I consider a significantly more conservative country than Zambia. According to the BBC, a moratorium was enacted on the laws, but full repeal of the law is a huge issue of realpolitik for Mutharika, who risks incredible backlash on the issue against both himself and threatened recrimination against the LGBT community. 
3. This has been accompanied by a steady rise of maize prices on the market (as is the case in Zambia) that has not been helped by the suspension of sales from ADMARC, Malawi's parastatal [government-run] agriculture marketing board which is by the largest buyer and seller of maize in the country. This has been exacerbated by the theft of maize by local ADMARC officers.

This morning, four hours after we parted ways, he sent this he sent this chilling text as he drove through Southern Province:

"Country is f***ed, not one viable maize field from Maz[abuka] to Choma, brutal!"

May 18, 2015 - Ministerial Statement on Crop Forecast (14th May, 2015)

(Note: Copied verbatim from Ministerial Statement received 18th May 2015)

REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA

MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND LIVESTOCK

MINISTER OF AGRICULTURE AND LIVESTOCK

HON. GIVEN LUBINDA, MP

ON

THE CROP FORECASTING SURVEY FOR THE 2014/2015 AGRICULTURAL SEASON AND THE FOOD BALANCE STATUS FOR THE 2015/2016 MARKETING SEASON

14^th   May, 2015

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN;

IT IS MY PLEASURE TO ANNOUNCE TO THE NATION THE COUNTRY’S ESTIMATED CROP PRODUCTION FOR THE 2014/2015 AGRICULTURAL SEASON AS WELL AS THE COUNTRY’S NATIONAL FOOD BALANCE FOR THE MARKETING SEASON COVERING THE PERIOD FROM   1ST MAY 2015 TO 30TH APRIL 2016.

THE CROP PRODUCTION ESTIMATES THAT I AM RELEASING TODAY ARE BASED ON A UNIVERSALLY APPLIED SCIENTIFIC SURVEY METHOD THAT IS USED EVERY YEAR. THE SURVEY IS JOINTLY CONDUCTED BY THE MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND LIVESTOCK AND THE CENTRAL STATISTICAL OFFICE (CSO) AND COVERS ALL THE DISTRICTS OF THE COUNTRY.

THIS YEAR, MAIZE PRODUCTION IS FORECAST TO DECLINE TO 2,618,221 METRIC TONNES FROM 3,350,671   METRIC TONNES, A DECLINE OF 21.86 PERCENT. THE NATIONAL AVERAGE YIELD RATE FOR MAIZE HAS DROPPED FROM 2.36 METRIC TONNES PER HECTARE TO 1.75 METRIC TONNES PER HECTARE. THIS REPRESENTS A DECLINE OF 26 PERCENT. SMALL AND MEDIUM SCALE FARMERS HAVE RECORDED AN AVERAGE MAIZE YIELD RATE OF 1.68 METRIC TONNES PER HECTARE, WHILST LARGE SCALE FARMERS HAVE RECORDED AN AVERAGE MAIZE YIELD RATE OF 4.36 METRIC TONNES PER HECTARE.

DESPITE THE DECREASE IN MAIZE PRODUCTION, I WOULD LIKE TO INFORM YOU THAT THE AREA PLANTED TO MAIZE AND MOST OTHER CROPS HAS INCREASED COMPARED TO LAST SEASON. AREA UNDER MAIZE INCREASED BY 5.3 PERCENT TO 1,494,451 IN THE 2014/2015 SEASON FROM 1,419,326 HECTARES LAST SEASON. USAGE OF FERTILIZER ON MAIZE BY FARMERS INCREASED BY 12 PERCENT IN 2014/2015 COMPARED TO LAST SEASON. THE USE OF FERTILIZER AND HYBRID SEED INCREASED DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THE QUANTITY OF FERTILIZER AND SEED DISTRIBUTED BY GOVERNMENT THROUGH THE FISP AS WELL AS THE CONTINUING EXTENSION EFFORTS TO IMPROVE CROP PRODUCTION MANAGEMENT PRACTICES.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN

PRODUCTION OF SORGHUM AND MILLET IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 29.7 PERCENT TO 8,123 METRIC TONNES FROM 11,557 METRIC TONNE LAST SEASON.  

PRODUCTION OF MILLET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 4.8 PERCENT TO           31,967 METRIC TONNES FROM 30,504 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.

PRODUCTION OF RICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 48.6 PERCENT TO           25,514 METRIC TONNES FROM 49,640 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.

PRODUCTION OF GROUNDNUTS IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 22.4 PERCENT TO 111,429 METRIC TONNES FROM 143,591 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.

PRODUCTION OF SOYA BEANS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 5.7 PERCENT TO 226,323 METRIC TONNES FROM 214,179 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON. THE NATIONAL YIELD RATE FOR SOYA BEANS HAS DECLINED BY 5 PERCENT. HOWEVER, THE AREA PLANTED TO SOYA BEANS INCREASED BY 11.2 PERCENT. THIS INCREASE IN THE AREA PLANTED TO SOYA BEANS UNDERSCORES MY MINISTRY’S COMMITMENT TO SUPPORTING ZAMBIA’S OILSEED PROCESSING SECTOR.

I WOULD LIKE TO ENCOURAGE OUR FARMERS TO CONTINUE INCREASING THE HECTARAGE UNDER OIL SEED CROPS SUCH AS SOYA BEANS AND SUNFLOWER TO ENABLE ZAMBIA BECOME SELF SUFFICIENT IN COOKING OIL.

PRODUCTION OF SEED COTTON IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 13.7 PERCENT TO 103,889 METRIC TONNES FROM 120,314 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON. HOWEVER, AREA PLANTED TO SEED COTTON DID INCREASE BY 18.4 PERCENT TO 158,619 HECTARES COMPARED TO LAST SEASON.

PRODUCTION OF SWEET POTATOES IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 21.2 PERCENT TO 118,330 METRIC TONNES FROM 150,158 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.

PRODUCTION OF IRISH POTATOES IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY 35.7 PERCENT TO 45,902 METRIC TONNES FROM       33,833 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON. THE INCREASE IN THE PRODUCTION OF IRISH POTATOES IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE LARGE SCALE FARMING SECTOR. I WISH TO ENCOURAGE OUR SMALLHOLDER FARMERS TO ALSO INCREASE THEIR EFFORTS AT CROP DIVERSIFICATION.

PRODUCTION OF MIXED BEANS IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 18.4 PERCENT TO 50,398 METRIC TONNES FROM 61,749 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.

PRODUCTION OF VIRGINIA AND BURLEY TOBACCO IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 24.1 PERCENT AND 36.4 PERCENT TO 19,811 METRIC TONNES AND 6,083 METRIC TONNES RESPECTIVELY

ACCORDING TO THE CROP FORECAST SURVEY RESULTS, NATIONAL CASSAVA FLOUR EQUIVALENT PRODUCTION FOR THE 2014/2015 SEASON HAS BEEN FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 3.6 PERCENT TO  952,847 METRIC TONNES COMPARED TO  919,497 METRIC TONNES OF CASSAVA FLOUR EQUIVALENT, PRODUCED DURING THE LAST SEASON.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN

YOU WILL NOTE THAT THE YIELD RATES FOR MANY CROPS HAS DECLINED IN THE 2014/2015 SEASON COMPARED TO LAST SEASON. THE GENERAL DECREASE IS MAINLY DUE TO THE FOLLOWING FACTORS:

1. THE LATE ONSET OF RAINS WHICH LED TO LATE PLANTING OF MOST CROPS; AND
2. THE POOR DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL WHICH CHARACTERIZED THE SEASON CULMINATING IN A PROLONGED DRY SPELL DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN

THE NATIONAL FOOD BALANCE SHEET FOR THE 2015/2016 MARKETING SEASON BASED ON THE CROP FORECASTING SURVEY  SHOWS THAT THE COUNTRY HAS PRODUCED SUFFICIENT MAIZE FOR BOTH HUMAN CONSUMPTION AND INDUSTRIAL USE. AS ALREADY STATED, TOTAL MAIZE PRODUCTION IN THE 2014/2015 SEASON HAS BEEN ESTIMATED TO BE 2,618,221 METRIC TONNES. THE COUNTRY ALSO HAS A MAIZE CARRY-OVER STOCK AMOUNTING TO 1,345,401 METRIC TONNES. MOST OF THIS MAIZE IS UNDER SAFE STORAGE WITH THE FRA, PRIVATE TRADERS AND COMMERCIAL FARMERS. WHEN THE MAIZE CARRY-OVER STOCK FROM LAST SEASON IS ADDED TO THE MAIZE PRODUCTION FOR THE 2014/2015 AGRICULTURAL SEASON, THE TOTAL SUPPLY OF MAIZE AVAILABLE FOR THE 2015/2016 MARKETING SEASON IS 3,963,622 METRIC TONNES.

FOR AN ESTIMATED POPULATION OF 15.7 MILLION PEOPLE, THE FOOD BALANCE SHEET SHOWS THAT TOTAL MAIZE REQUIRED FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION, INDUSTRIAL USE AND OTHER COMMITMENTS AMOUNTS TO 3,086,854 METRIC TONNES. THE TOTAL MAIZE REQUIREMENTS INCLUDE AN ANTICIPATED NATIONAL STRATEGIC RESERVE STOCK OF 500,000 METRIC TONNES TO BE HELD BY THE FOOD RESERVE AGENCY.

WHEN TOTAL MAIZE REQUIREMENTS ARE SUBTRACTED FROM TOTAL MAIZE AVAILABILITY, THE FOOD BALANCE SHEET INDICATES THAT THE COUNTRY HAS RECORDED A MAIZE SURPLUS OF 876,738 METRIC TONNES.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN;

THE WHEAT CROP FOR THE 2014/2015 SEASON IS CURRENTLY BEING PLANTED. HOWEVER, PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE COUNTRY IS LIKELY TO INCREASE ITS WHEAT PRODUCTION THIS SEASON COMPARED TO LAST YEAR. DETAILED ESTIMATES FOR THE ANTICIPATED WHEAT PRODUCTION WILL BE UPDATED LATER IN THE SEASON.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN;

I WISH TO INFORM THE NATION THAT GOVERNMENT, THROUGH THE FOOD RESERVE AGENCY (FRA), WILL PURCHASE 500,000 METRIC TONNES OF STRATEGIC RESERVES.

LET ME HOWEVER, ENCOURAGE THE PRIVATE SECTOR TO CONTINUE TO FULLY PARTICIPATE IN CROP MARKETING BOTH LOCALLY AND INTERNATIONALLY. MY MINISTRY WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE EXPORT PERMITS TO VARIOUS PRIVATE SECTOR PLAYERS TO EXPORT OUR SURPLUS GRAIN TO REGIONAL MARKETS. THIS WILL BE DONE WITHOUT COMPROMISING NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY. LET ME EMPHASISE THE FACT THAT GOVERNMENT IS KEEN TO SEE MORE PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION IN THE PURCHASING OF GRAIN FROM OUR HARD WORKING FARMERS.

THE FRA WILL IN DUE COURSE, ANNOUNCE THE PURCHASE PRICE FOR MAIZE FOR THE 2015/2016 MARKETING SEASON. THE FRA WILL ONLY COMMENCE MAIZE PURCHASES ONCE THE MOISTURE CONTENT HAS REACHED DESIRED LOW LEVELS. LET ME TAKE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO INFORM THE NATION THAT I WILL SOON BE CONVENING A MEETING WITH RELEVANT STAKEHOLDERS TO DISCUSS AMONG OTHER THINGS, THE WAY FORWARD ON CROP MARKETING FOR THIS SEASON.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN

LET ME CONCLUDE BY ONCE AGAIN THANKING THE FARMERS OF ZAMBIA FOR THEIR CONTINUED HARD.

THIS IS THE OFFICIAL SUMMARY OF THE CROP FORECAST SURVEY RESULTS FOR THE 2014/2015 AGRICULTURAL SEASON. DETAILED RESULTS CAN BE OBTAINED FROM THE AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS AND EARLY WARNING SECTION OF MY MINISTRY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL STATISTICAL OFFICE.

I THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION. 

The Green Tree

The Post has had a couple of stories about Kanyama compound in Lusaka flooding over the past few days. We, on the other hand, have had no rain for 10 days, and given the heat of the season (it is high summer) one imagines oneself in a sandy, albeit green, waste.

I'm working from Senanga for the next few weeks (months? years?) as a replacement for the District Program Coordinator, who departed for the greener pastures of Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines Investment Holdings [following that link will give you a pretty good idea of what the parastatal (nationalized) economy was about). Being away from home creates a weird hollow in your lifestyle; without my usual routine of stretching, coffee, breakfast, and puttering around the garden before going to work, I have to come up with a surrogate routine until 8:00hrs. Therefore, I wake up, stretch, jog (ughh), exercise, shower, shave, eat breakfast, and have coffee.

It was rather shocking for me this morning while taking my first sip of coffee and looking out the window at some trees (a sesbania macrantha and two pigeon peas [Cajunus cajun]) I planted in mid-2011. Yesterday, both of the pigeon pea trees were green; this morning, most of the leaves as if by some horrid magic had turned bright yellow. I have no idea what caused this sudden necrosis ... what came to mind  was the fact that it had borne so few seeds this year, and on the heels of that thought, the passages in the New Testament where Jesus cursed the fig tree and it withered.

Though I am not aware of the Messiah visiting the Senanga team house back yard in the night or yesterday, it was still disconcerting to see ... particularly as I'd like to use pigeon peas in the next iteration of the Conservation Agriculture project we're planning for the upcoming three years. Pigeon peas, as an agroforestry species, has a lot of pros ... fast growing, fixes nitrogen, helps make soil phosphorus labile (available to plants), fairly drought-resistant (in other parts of Africa not resembling a wooded desert), and most importantly, has an edible seed. Actually quite good, used for dhaal in Indian dishes, known somehow as white gram. However it portends ill to see the leaves withering so quickly. I keep underlining this fact, but it bears repeating: nothing is easy here and don't assume anything as you'll make an ass-of-u-and-me.

Brings one other, though much darker verse to mind; on his march to Golgotha, Jesus admonished a group of wailing women not to weep for Him but rather for themselves (Luke 23:31); "For if they do these things in a green tree, what shall be done in the dry?"

What indeed?

Rain is a bird

I have been tramping around Mongu district in our Conservation Agriculture (CA) project areas for the past three days, and the consistent thing I can say is that nothing was consistent. Field sizes, plot locations, plant population, row spacing, farmer knowledge, planting dates, etc., etc., vary all over the map; the only commonality was that almost no one knew what the names of the seeds were that they planted.

Oh, and one slight detail ... it hasn't rained much since November 15th, the unofficial start of our planting season.

When I was passing for a soil science student while doing my master's degree in agroecology, we learned about Liebig's Law of the Minimum ... the idea that a plant's growth is limited by the most limited nutrient. For example, if you have plenty of phosphorus (Ph) and nitrogen (N), but lack potassium (K), a given plant will only grow / yield according to the limiting K, effectively canceling the surplus Ph and N.

Pictorially, it is represented as a old-style barrel with staves of different lengths:


Wikipedia (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1c/Minimum-Tonne.svg/220px-Minimum-Tonne.svg.png)

The amount of water (you're eventual yield) that you can hold in Liebig's barrel is limited by the shortest stave. Pretty simple, and unfortunately, one of those immutable laws like gravity, death, Murphy's, etc.

We were evaluating fields in Namushakende, and I couldn't get that damn barrel out of my head. We encourage farmers to plant with the first rains after November 15th (which fell variably across the Namushakende area on either the 25th or 28th). They did so, and then it hasn't really rained much since. A double kicker with the lovely sunny days is that the soil surface in the fields in the sandy uplands gets hot enough to fry eggs ... whatever germinates sits in a 10 cm zone of absolute broiling heat. So the maize that has come up is looking like so many rows of onions.

Water is the most limiting of limiting factors.

__What do we do? I would shrug and point up at the sky, though I sincerely doubt lack of churches is driving this particular dry spell.

Our extension worker in Namushakende is a older gentlemen with elven features and a subtle sense of humor, and he told me as we were wrapping up our monitoring that there was a saying in siLozi to the effect that "rain is a bird". I asked what he meant; moving his hands rapidly side-to-side, he explained that the rain shifts around a lot like a bird.

Is it common to beseech the Almighty in a blog? I'm not sure, but God, please send rain.