REPUBLIC
OF ZAMBIA
MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND LIVESTOCK
MINISTER
OF AGRICULTURE AND LIVESTOCK
HON.
GIVEN LUBINDA, MP
ON
THE CROP FORECASTING SURVEY
FOR THE 2014/2015 AGRICULTURAL SEASON AND THE FOOD BALANCE STATUS FOR THE 2015/2016
MARKETING SEASON
14th May,
2015
LADIES AND GENTLEMEN;
IT IS MY PLEASURE TO ANNOUNCE TO THE NATION THE COUNTRY’S
ESTIMATED CROP PRODUCTION FOR THE 2014/2015 AGRICULTURAL SEASON AS WELL AS THE
COUNTRY’S NATIONAL FOOD BALANCE FOR THE MARKETING SEASON COVERING THE PERIOD
FROM 1ST MAY 2015 TO 30TH APRIL 2016.
THE CROP PRODUCTION ESTIMATES THAT I AM RELEASING TODAY ARE
BASED ON A UNIVERSALLY APPLIED SCIENTIFIC SURVEY METHOD THAT IS USED EVERY
YEAR. THE SURVEY IS JOINTLY CONDUCTED BY THE MINISTRY OF AGRICULTURE AND
LIVESTOCK AND THE CENTRAL STATISTICAL OFFICE (CSO) AND COVERS ALL THE DISTRICTS
OF THE COUNTRY.
THIS YEAR, MAIZE PRODUCTION IS FORECAST TO DECLINE TO
2,618,221 METRIC TONNES FROM 3,350,671 METRIC TONNES, A DECLINE OF 21.86 PERCENT. THE
NATIONAL AVERAGE YIELD RATE FOR MAIZE HAS DROPPED FROM 2.36 METRIC TONNES PER
HECTARE TO 1.75 METRIC TONNES PER HECTARE. THIS REPRESENTS A DECLINE OF 26
PERCENT. SMALL AND MEDIUM SCALE FARMERS HAVE RECORDED AN AVERAGE MAIZE YIELD
RATE OF 1.68 METRIC TONNES PER HECTARE, WHILST LARGE SCALE FARMERS HAVE
RECORDED AN AVERAGE MAIZE YIELD RATE OF 4.36 METRIC TONNES PER HECTARE.
DESPITE THE DECREASE IN MAIZE PRODUCTION, I WOULD LIKE TO
INFORM YOU THAT THE AREA PLANTED TO MAIZE AND MOST OTHER CROPS HAS INCREASED COMPARED
TO LAST SEASON. AREA UNDER MAIZE INCREASED BY 5.3 PERCENT TO 1,494,451 IN THE
2014/2015 SEASON FROM 1,419,326 HECTARES LAST SEASON. USAGE OF FERTILIZER ON
MAIZE BY FARMERS INCREASED BY 12 PERCENT IN 2014/2015 COMPARED TO LAST SEASON. THE
USE OF FERTILIZER AND HYBRID SEED INCREASED DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THE QUANTITY
OF FERTILIZER AND SEED DISTRIBUTED BY GOVERNMENT THROUGH THE FISP AS WELL AS
THE CONTINUING EXTENSION EFFORTS TO IMPROVE CROP PRODUCTION MANAGEMENT
PRACTICES.
LADIES AND GENTLEMEN
PRODUCTION OF SORGHUM AND MILLET IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY
29.7 PERCENT TO 8,123 METRIC TONNES FROM 11,557 METRIC TONNE LAST SEASON.
PRODUCTION OF MILLET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 4.8 PERCENT
TO 31,967 METRIC TONNES FROM 30,504
METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.
PRODUCTION OF RICE IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 48.6 PERCENT
TO 25,514 METRIC TONNES FROM 49,640
METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.
PRODUCTION OF GROUNDNUTS IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 22.4
PERCENT TO 111,429 METRIC TONNES FROM 143,591 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.
PRODUCTION OF SOYA BEANS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 5.7
PERCENT TO 226,323 METRIC TONNES FROM 214,179 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON. THE
NATIONAL YIELD RATE FOR SOYA BEANS HAS DECLINED BY 5 PERCENT. HOWEVER, THE AREA
PLANTED TO SOYA BEANS INCREASED BY 11.2 PERCENT. THIS INCREASE IN THE AREA
PLANTED TO SOYA BEANS UNDERSCORES MY MINISTRY’S COMMITMENT TO SUPPORTING
ZAMBIA’S OILSEED PROCESSING SECTOR.
I WOULD LIKE TO ENCOURAGE OUR FARMERS TO CONTINUE INCREASING
THE HECTARAGE UNDER OIL SEED CROPS SUCH AS SOYA BEANS AND SUNFLOWER TO ENABLE
ZAMBIA BECOME SELF SUFFICIENT IN COOKING OIL.
PRODUCTION OF SEED COTTON IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 13.7
PERCENT TO 103,889 METRIC TONNES FROM 120,314 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.
HOWEVER, AREA PLANTED TO SEED COTTON DID INCREASE BY 18.4 PERCENT TO 158,619
HECTARES COMPARED TO LAST SEASON.
PRODUCTION OF SWEET POTATOES IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 21.2
PERCENT TO 118,330 METRIC TONNES FROM 150,158 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.
PRODUCTION OF IRISH POTATOES IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
BY 35.7 PERCENT TO 45,902 METRIC TONNES FROM 33,833 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON. THE
INCREASE IN THE PRODUCTION OF IRISH POTATOES IS LARGELY DRIVEN BY THE LARGE
SCALE FARMING SECTOR. I WISH TO ENCOURAGE OUR SMALLHOLDER FARMERS TO ALSO INCREASE
THEIR EFFORTS AT CROP DIVERSIFICATION.
PRODUCTION OF MIXED BEANS IS FORECAST TO DECLINE BY 18.4
PERCENT TO 50,398 METRIC TONNES FROM 61,749 METRIC TONNES LAST SEASON.
PRODUCTION OF VIRGINIA AND BURLEY TOBACCO IS FORECAST TO
DECLINE BY 24.1 PERCENT AND 36.4 PERCENT TO 19,811 METRIC TONNES AND 6,083
METRIC TONNES RESPECTIVELY
ACCORDING TO THE CROP FORECAST SURVEY RESULTS, NATIONAL
CASSAVA FLOUR EQUIVALENT PRODUCTION FOR THE 2014/2015 SEASON HAS BEEN FORECAST TO
INCREASE BY 3.6 PERCENT TO 952,847 METRIC
TONNES COMPARED TO 919,497 METRIC TONNES
OF CASSAVA FLOUR EQUIVALENT, PRODUCED DURING THE LAST SEASON.
LADIES AND GENTLEMEN
YOU WILL NOTE THAT THE YIELD RATES FOR MANY CROPS HAS
DECLINED IN THE 2014/2015 SEASON COMPARED TO LAST SEASON. THE GENERAL DECREASE
IS MAINLY DUE TO THE FOLLOWING FACTORS:
- THE LATE ONSET OF RAINS WHICH LED TO LATE PLANTING OF
MOST CROPS; AND
- THE POOR DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL WHICH CHARACTERIZED
THE SEASON CULMINATING IN A PROLONGED DRY SPELL DURING THE MONTH OF MARCH.
LADIES AND GENTLEMEN
THE NATIONAL FOOD BALANCE SHEET FOR THE 2015/2016 MARKETING
SEASON BASED ON THE CROP FORECASTING SURVEY
SHOWS THAT THE COUNTRY HAS PRODUCED SUFFICIENT MAIZE FOR BOTH HUMAN
CONSUMPTION AND INDUSTRIAL USE. AS ALREADY STATED, TOTAL MAIZE PRODUCTION IN
THE 2014/2015 SEASON HAS BEEN ESTIMATED TO BE 2,618,221 METRIC TONNES. THE COUNTRY ALSO HAS A MAIZE CARRY-OVER
STOCK AMOUNTING TO 1,345,401 METRIC
TONNES. MOST OF THIS MAIZE IS UNDER SAFE STORAGE WITH THE FRA, PRIVATE TRADERS
AND COMMERCIAL FARMERS. WHEN THE MAIZE CARRY-OVER STOCK FROM LAST SEASON IS
ADDED TO THE MAIZE PRODUCTION FOR THE 2014/2015 AGRICULTURAL SEASON, THE TOTAL
SUPPLY OF MAIZE AVAILABLE FOR THE 2015/2016 MARKETING SEASON IS 3,963,622 METRIC TONNES.
FOR AN ESTIMATED POPULATION OF 15.7 MILLION PEOPLE, THE FOOD
BALANCE SHEET SHOWS THAT TOTAL MAIZE REQUIRED FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION, INDUSTRIAL
USE AND OTHER COMMITMENTS AMOUNTS TO 3,086,854
METRIC TONNES. THE TOTAL MAIZE REQUIREMENTS INCLUDE AN ANTICIPATED NATIONAL
STRATEGIC RESERVE STOCK OF 500,000
METRIC TONNES TO BE HELD BY THE FOOD RESERVE AGENCY.
WHEN TOTAL MAIZE REQUIREMENTS ARE SUBTRACTED FROM TOTAL MAIZE
AVAILABILITY, THE FOOD BALANCE SHEET INDICATES THAT THE COUNTRY HAS RECORDED A
MAIZE SURPLUS OF 876,738 METRIC
TONNES.
LADIES AND GENTLEMEN;
THE WHEAT CROP FOR THE 2014/2015 SEASON IS CURRENTLY BEING
PLANTED. HOWEVER, PRELIMINARY ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE COUNTRY IS LIKELY TO INCREASE
ITS WHEAT PRODUCTION THIS SEASON COMPARED TO LAST YEAR. DETAILED ESTIMATES FOR
THE ANTICIPATED WHEAT PRODUCTION WILL BE UPDATED LATER IN THE SEASON.
LADIES AND GENTLEMEN;
I WISH TO INFORM THE NATION THAT GOVERNMENT, THROUGH THE FOOD
RESERVE AGENCY (FRA), WILL PURCHASE 500,000 METRIC TONNES OF STRATEGIC RESERVES.
LET ME HOWEVER, ENCOURAGE THE PRIVATE SECTOR TO CONTINUE TO FULLY
PARTICIPATE IN CROP MARKETING BOTH LOCALLY AND INTERNATIONALLY. MY MINISTRY
WILL CONTINUE TO ISSUE EXPORT PERMITS TO VARIOUS PRIVATE SECTOR PLAYERS TO
EXPORT OUR SURPLUS GRAIN TO REGIONAL MARKETS. THIS WILL BE DONE WITHOUT
COMPROMISING NATIONAL FOOD SECURITY. LET ME EMPHASISE THE FACT THAT GOVERNMENT
IS KEEN TO SEE MORE PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION IN THE PURCHASING OF GRAIN
FROM OUR HARD WORKING FARMERS.
THE FRA WILL IN DUE COURSE, ANNOUNCE THE PURCHASE PRICE FOR
MAIZE FOR THE 2015/2016 MARKETING SEASON. THE FRA WILL ONLY COMMENCE MAIZE PURCHASES
ONCE THE MOISTURE CONTENT HAS REACHED DESIRED LOW LEVELS. LET ME TAKE THIS
OPPORTUNITY TO INFORM THE NATION THAT I WILL SOON BE CONVENING A MEETING WITH
RELEVANT STAKEHOLDERS TO DISCUSS AMONG OTHER THINGS, THE WAY FORWARD ON CROP
MARKETING FOR THIS SEASON.
LADIES AND GENTLEMEN
LET ME CONCLUDE BY ONCE AGAIN THANKING THE FARMERS OF ZAMBIA
FOR THEIR CONTINUED HARD.
THIS IS THE OFFICIAL SUMMARY OF THE CROP FORECAST SURVEY
RESULTS FOR THE 2014/2015 AGRICULTURAL SEASON. DETAILED RESULTS CAN BE OBTAINED
FROM THE AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS AND EARLY WARNING SECTION OF MY
MINISTRY AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL STATISTICAL OFFICE.
I THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION.
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