19 May, 2015 - Maize Production along Zambia's Line-of-Rail

Excerpted from Zambia National Farmers' Union (ZNFU) Weekly Agro-Watch (18th May 2015, Vol. 19)

Marketable Maize along Line of rail to fall by 43 percent

The Crop forecast results released last week by the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock reveal that the quantity of marketable maize along the line of rail, the hub of private sector participation in maize marketing, is anticipated to reduce by 43 percent in the 2015/16 marketing year to 580,072 metric tons. The maize production areas along the line of rail were the worst hit by the weather shocks that characterized the 2014/15 agricultural season and are likely to suffer higher production losses.  The off line of rail marketable surplus has however been forecast up by about 2 percent to 877,409 tons. This is mainly on account of increased maize production by the northern region of the country. The quantities of maize to reach the market in Eastern and North-Western Provinces are however forecast to drop by 24 and 35 percent respectively in comparison to the previous marketing season.

Zambezi Water Levels:

• On the local scene, information from the Zambezi River Authority indicates that the flowrate of the Zambezi River is about 50 percent lower than last year about the same time. The lower flow rate may not only affect the availability of water for irrigation but also electricity generation, two inputs critical in Zambia’s wheat production. 

Maize:

• Following the announcement of the 2014/15 crop forecast results, the Minister of Agriculture and Livestock – Hon. Given Lubinda stated that Zambia’s borders would remain open to maize exports as long as national food security was not threatened.
• Meanwhile, indications are that Zimbabwe is in search of about 700,000 tons of maize to meet its anticipated maize supply deficit.
• Results from Malawi’s second round survey revealed that they country may require to import about 123,000MT of maize in order to meet its looming maize deficit in the 2015/16 marketing year. This will however be confirmed by its third round survey to estimate the 2015 harvest.
• The Chicago maize futures price for delivery in July 2015 was pegged at US$ 145.27/MT on 18^th May 2015.
• Local maize offer prices averaged ZMW1165/ton in the week ending 15^th May 2015. Lusaka prices are however around ZMW1, 320/ton. The maize market players are now anxiously waiting for the announcement of the FRA purchase price.

Fuel:

• On the local scene, the Energy Regulation Board (ERB) has adjusted fuel prices by ZMW1/litre on average with the new prices of petrol, diesel and kerosene pegged at ZMW8.74/L, ZMW 7.59/L and ZMW 5.40/L respectively. ERB has attributed this increase to the poor performance of the Kwacha. With the rising international crude oil prices, further increments in local fuel prices cannot be ruled out.