August 5th, 2015 - The National Ag. Show

ZESCO continues to be an issue impacting work; we had a crap genset (what they call a generator here) that gave out Friday morning, so I went to the Showgrounds for the 2nd day of the National Agriculture Show, or as it's formally known, the Agriculture and Commercial Show of Zambia (ACSZ). 

The Show is a bit of a mystery to many people, mostly because of the spatial confusion that everyone is struck with inside the showgrounds ... this is due to it's organization and the overall lack of straight lines that permeates the Zambian id. 

The official map looks like this:

However, once you get inside, it feels a lot like this: 

I'm sort of bullet-headed when I go in there anymore for the following reasons:

• As the Show days go by, the people attending the stands care less and become nearly unresponsive ... it's a bit like the old Nintendo video games where the characters repeat the same thing over and over;
• At the same time, the number of attendees reaches an absolutely silly level;
• The lack of an index of who's where and showing what (see above, 2nd figure) makes visiting a specific area more of a voyage of discovery in a writhing sea of people;
• Most of the contacts you make never respond, making it a waste of business cards;
• I've been going to the show since 2007 and the amount of change (outside of more large-scale farm equipment) is negligible.

There's many other reasons I hustle in and out, but the biggest is that I know exactly what I want:

• SEEDS, man

Yes, seeds ... the small-scale farmers displays in Lima Hall and at the Women/Youth Stands are like crack for a small-scale agriculturalist; I go and eyeball the provincial stands for oddball seeds ... Tabora beans, sword beans, Congo beans, pinto groundnuts, tree seeds, etc. Usually, I reserve on Fridays and buy on Monday (after the displays are judged) ... ostensibly, the officers (usually provincial level MAL technocrats) sell on behalf of their farmers, but I am neither able nor willing to set up the accountability structures to ascertain that. I just want seeds of every shade to throw at the sands of Western Province to see what might work. 

How did I do this year? Not bad:

1. Sorghum x 4 varieties (15kgs total);
2. Sword beans Canavalia gladiata (5kg);
3. Red lima beans Phaseolus lunatus (5kg);
4. Groundnuts [peanuts] x 3 varieties (speckled, purple, Luena (Natal Common), and White Natal Common);
5. Lab-lab beans Lablab purpureus (5kg);
6. Pigeon peas Cajunus cajun (5kg)
7. New Rice For Africa (Nerica 4, Upland rice) 10 kg
8. Nerica 2, Upland rice 4 kg
9. Traditional maize (Pandawa, red tinted dent) 6kg
10. Angolan (brown) dent maize, 2 cobs
11. Guar Cyamopsis tetragonoloba (handful)

What do I do with these? Not much ... I have approximately 5 square meters in front of my house that can be cultivated (which I have harvested a nice little bit of cowpeas, traditional maize, and lima beans). Nope, they get packaged in quart-sized Ziplocs, labelled with a permanent marker, and shipped out to our lead farmers (60 total) ... it's amazing how they can sort out the planting and observations now, and give relatively good feedback on the performance. I also keep some handfuls for friends and to others who I collaborate on to propagate / multiply the seed ... if we find anything good, we can ramp it up in a hurry. 

It used to be sort of like throwing things out in the wind, but like I said ... now we've got a coterie of farmers who value experimentation and want to do more of it. 

July 21st, 2015 - YA-BAA!! Load Shedding and deforestation

Not surprisingly, the load shedding by the Zambia Electricity Supply Company (ZESCO) is having something of a cultural effect; if someone is dozing, it is "load shedding". The car not starting: load shedding. Slow service: load shedding.

There was a good depiction of the double-whammy people got last week from Choklit over at the Post newspaper, which was having a frenzy over the sitting government ... they are now full-on over the load shedding, though I am puzzled how government could fix that one (e.g., they would literally have to make rain happen five months early).

The most worrying prospect for me over the same is the amount of charcoal burning that rural people are engaging in due to the increased use of it in towns. The introduction and surprisingly fast implementation a few years ago of pre-paid (e.g., "pay-as-you-go") electricity meters by the same ZESCO started an increase in the use of charcoal in urban kitchens (typically where meters are located). The ability to make budget estimates on the spot likely switched any number of people away from electric for cooking or heating water, which are the most expensive in terms of power usage. Also, charcoal has some heating utility that electric generally lacks (yes, it is Africa, but Lusaka sits at 3,600 - 3,800 feet above sea level; trust me, it gets chilly). However, the increased lack of power and the irregular supply, particularly around dinner, has driven the multitudes straight into the arms of charcoal. Needless to say, the price has reached around K90 ($12.00USD) per standard bag in the trading centers that ring the approaches to town, meaning the rural poor with the capability are pretty much going to eschew other activities to make ("burn") charcoal.

July 15th, 2015 - ZNFU Notes, Fuel Prices and FRA

Excerpts from the weekly Agro Watch, Volume 28 2015

My notes in red.

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Fuel:

Diesel and petrol Prices hit K8.59 and K9.87 respectively. The Energy Regulation Board (ERB) has adjusted the pump price of petroleum products by K1.13 for petrol; K1.00 for diesel; K0.72 for kerosene and has maintained the price of low sulphur diesel (diesel), effective midnight of 13th July 2015. Consequently, the prices will now be as follows: Diesel pump price increases to K8.59 from K7.59; while Petrol pump price increases to K9.87 from K8.74. The ERB attributes the increase in oil prices to depreciation of the local currency (Kwacha) against major convertible currencies such as the US dollar. This is despite the fact that crude oil prices on the world market have continued to fall currently at US56.76 per barrel.

Maize:

• In Zambia, the Permanent Secretary for Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock has maintained that Government would only purchase 500,000MT of maize for the Strategic Reserve (they said the same thing last year and ended up buying 900,000MT).
• Ministry of Agriculture has urged farmers to take advantage of private sector maize buyers as opposed to waiting for FRA floor price. (It's not a "floor price" ... what that term means is the absolute minimum at which maize can be purchased is the floor price. What the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) does is set a pan-territorial [nationwide for all depots, satellite depots, etc.] price for a 50kg bag of white maize at 12% moisture content. In 2014, the price was raised from K65.00 / bag [the price from 2010] to K70.00 per bag ... this year's price remains to be seen.)
• FRA has reported that current maize stocks for strategic reserve stands at 393,393MT, and that the Agency will only buy maize in 4 provinces namely: Luapula; Muchinga; North Western and Northern Provinces. (I would have to check, but at least three of those voted for the ruling party in the last election). FRA indicated that the above provinces are not adequately covered by the private sector buyers compared to other provinces along the line of rail (Funny ... Eastern and Western Province don't have railroads. Of course, Western also lacks maize outside of Kaoma.)
• Local average maize price have continued to strengthen backed by the strong demand and limited supply of the commodity. The grain average price for the previous week was pegged at K1, 195/Mt. Prices of the commodity delivered to Lusaka are now averaging K1450/MT. The graph below shows average local maize price trends. (Kind of an obvious one ... the demand for maize in Zambia is equivalent to saying "the demand for oxygen"). 

July 13th, 2015 - ZNFU Notes (Waiting for the FRA; Load Shedding)

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*Excerpts from Friday Brief, Week 28 (10-July-2015*
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LOAD SHEDDING AFFECTS MILK PROCESSORS

A number of processors have bemoaned non adherence to the load shedding schedules by ZESCO as some have gone without power for more than 8hours.This has resulted in increased production costs as processors resort to generators and other expensive alternative sources of power . Most processors have had challenges in collecting milk from Milk Collection Centres (MCCs) as they cannot offload and process milk already at the plant due to power outages by ZESCO. This has in turn has affected MCC operations as they fail to receive milk from the farmers. Dairy Association of Zambia (DAZ) is in the process of undertaking a survey to establish the exact impact of power outages members.

2014/15 FRA CROP MARKETING PREPARATIONS COMMENCE IN SESHEKE

Preparations for the 2014/15 crop marketing season by FRA have commenced in Sesheke district. The Agency has already deployed its field staff to 29 satellite depots besides other logistical arrangements that are being put in place. Initially 18 satellite depots were planned to be opened, but then, the lobbying done by the DFA in collaboration with Ministry of Agriculture convinced the Agency to increase the number by 11 satellite depots.

In another development, the District Commissioner’s office has assured the people of Sesheke district that relief food will soon be given to people who are badly hit with hunger.

FARMERS ANTICIPATING A CHALLENGING MARKETING SEASON

Farmers in Solwezi district are worried by the slow pace at which logistics are being put in place by the FRA for this year’s crop marketing season. The farmers have observed that there is delay in the announcement of the maize flour price and the official opening of the crop marketing season. The farmers have further complained that the late preparations might result into more complications when the marketing exercise begins.

NORTH WEST FARMERS IN DESPERATE WAIT FOR FRA MARKET

Maize Farmers in the north western part of the country are anxiously waiting for the opening of the maize marketing exercise by the Food Reserve Agency (FRA). A check by the ZNFU at different marketing depots in the province found that several farmers have already taken their Maize produce there in readiness for the start of the marketing exercise

July 10th, 2015 - ZNFU Notes

Lately this has been making the rounds on social media

The guy in charge of load shedding at ZESCO:

I find it somehow fascinating that Homer was chosen, but it's somehow appropriate ... ZESCO's in a bit of an overwhelming situation where they can't fake it and make it.

The immediate issue is due largely to the poor rains the past rainy season vs. power demand. However, others I've spoken blame it on the short-term thinking chronic of parastatals (e.g., government run utilities) ... power generation capability of anything other than household scale (itself the realm of solar) in Zambia is still based entirely on rather dated hydro facilities, and that ZESCO is at fault for not following up on these opportunities in the past ... it means our forests will take an almighty bigger beating for charcoal as the farmers who were shorted by the same rains scramble to make up for lost money by turning on the forests. It may also push some positive change ... more fuel-efficiency, diversity of sources, etc. In the case of Conservation Agriculture, these are great years for getting farmers on board with the technology; it's literally a "join or die" mentality. It's either adopt CA or don't have food ... particularly with another ENSO event looming (see below):

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Excerpts from the ZNFU Weekly Agro Watch (Volume 27)
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El Niño threatens the start of 2015/2016 season in the region

The US Geological Survey has suggested a greater possibility of an El Niño by the start of the 2015/2016 season as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continue across most of the Pacific Ocean continue to rise. Based on historical trend analysis, El Niño conditions would likely result in below-average rainfall. In previous El Niño years, countries affected include, southern parts of Zimbabwe, southern parts of Malawi, northeastern South Africa, and southern and central Mozambique. Based on recent experiences during the 2014/15 season (when similar positive SST conditions were predicted) several areas in the region ended up experiencing a late start of season and erratic rains during the October to December period, resulting in below-average rainfall. However, it should be noted that in some El Niño years, including the 1997/98 season, the region received above-average rains and above-average harvests.

MAIZE

• Zimbabwe is facing maize deficit of over 900,000 metric tons according to Fewsnet assessment in July 2015.
• Malawi, Congo DRC and Angola are facing maize deficits and will rely on informal Zambian maize grain imports between July and December 2015.

July 7th, 2015 - ZNFU Notes (Load Shedding in Zambia)

Hello sports fans ... just got back from some leave to see the folks in the States. 

Sitting in the dark, surprisingly early after being in the northern U.S. during the height of summer. Darkness has been aided by load shedding, as you'll note below (twice) in the weekly ZNFU update. 

Excerpts from the ZNFU weekly update (Week 27, 2015)

ZESCO TAKES DRASTIC LOADSHEDDING MEASURES

At a ZNFU/ZESCO Committee meeting held on 2^nd July 2015, Zesco presented a gloomy picture of hydro generation of power because of low water levels at Kariba Dam and Itezhi -Tezhi. In a presentation made to farmers representatives from various farming areas which included Mazabuka, Lusaka, Chisamba and Mkushi, Zesco pointed out that at the current rate of generation, water levels would drop drastically by September to a point where generation could ground to a halt.

To avert this situation, Zesco has to drop power generation levels to an average of about 500 MW daily and this is against a maximum daily load of 1500 MW hence they have to engage in drastic demand side management through load shedding of all stakeholders including the mines to balance the load. Therefore, Zesco has worked out load shedding options of at least 8 hours in some areas. Farmers expressed concern over the lack of early warning but Zesco indicated that initial weather forecast provided to them by Meteorological Department (MET) had predicted that water levels would rise but with time this has not materialised.

Amidst all these challenges, farmers engaged in irrigation of winter crops especially wheat are encouraged to familiarize with the load-shedding schedules in the respective area and orient farm operations in line with the load-shedding times. Farmers should also engage local Zesco offices in case of changes to be proposed to the published times. Copies of such requests should be forwarded to the Union to assist with follow up as Zesco has indicated that that they remain committed to work with stakeholders in addressing emerging challenges during this time. At the meeting, farmers also requested that within the farming areas, wheat farmers should be considered for a shorter period of load shedding maximum six hours for the period July through to end of August.

ZESCO LOAD SHEDDING CAUSES HIKE IN FUEL PRICE

The continuous load shedding of power by ZESCO has inspired local fuel vendors in Kasempa district to increase the fuel price to as high as K13.00 per litre. The situation has also compelled motorists to also increase transport fares on some routes within Kasempa district from K10.00 to K 15.00. A check conducted by ZNFU staffer at the only fuel service station in the district found motorists stranded because the service station had not received any fuel since Monday, 29^th July, 2015.

LIONS TERRORIZE CHAVUMA RESIDENTS

It has been reported that 3 lions have been terrorizing farmers in Chikanta area from which the lions have since killed 5 herds of cattle and 3 goats. This has caused panic among the farmers in Chikanta area. This development was confirmed by the District Commissioner Mr. Lawrence Kayumba who warned Chavuma residents who attended the commemoration of the world VCT day to be careful as they go to harvest in the areas near Chikanta.  ZAWA has since moved to the area to try and capture the lions.

**** END OF BULLETIN ****

June 1st, 2015 - ZNFU Notes

Excerpts from the ZNFU weekly update (Week 22, 2015)

LUBINDA DISSOLVES ALL AGRICULTURAL BOARDS AND TRUSTS

The Minister of Agriculture and Livestock, Hon. Given Lubinda, on Tuesday 26^th May dissolved all the boards and Trusts under his Ministry in a bid to increase their operational efficiencies.  The boards dissolved include the Food Reserve Agency (FRA), Nitrogen Chemicals of Zambia (NCZ), Tobacco Board of Zambia (TBZ), Cotton Board of Zambia (CBZ), Zambia Coffee Board (ZCB) and Dairy Development Board (DDB). The In-Service Training Trust (ISTT), Golden Valley Agriculture Research Trust (GART), Livestock Development Trust (LDT) and Cotton Development Trust (CDT) have also been dissolved. All the functions of the boards and trusts will be handled by the two Permanent Secretaries of MAL until new boards and trusts are instituted.

CHISAMBA FARMERS COMMEND ZNFU FOR THE WATER ACT UPDATE

Farmers in Chisamba district have commended the ZNFU for an update on the latest developments being implemented by the Water Resource Management Authority (WARMA). This happened during a special farmers meeting held at Fringilla Club in Chisamba on 28^th May, 2015 to discuss pertinent issues in the agricultural sector. Among the updates given included the fact that WARMA has continued with consultative meetings with farmers on the implementation of the Water Act of 2011, and that farmers active in irrigation are encouraged to voluntarily be part of water users associations as decisions on water use and allocation will start from recommendations of this structure.

The meeting also heard that permit application fees have been proposed for ratification as per the following categories;

• K 500 for permit application to abstract water 365, 000m³ per year,
• K 100 for permit application to abstract water between 12, 000 and 365, 000m³ per year,
• K 1000 for any mining or hydropower permit application and K 100 for any other permits application.

The meeting was also informed that the ZNFU is actively engaging WARMA on some provisions in the Water Act of 2011, such as those which might disadvantage agricultural investments, vis-à-vis change from water user rights to permits.

And during the same meeting, farmers urged the ZNFU to closely monitor developments in the importation of the 75,000mt of wheat which was recently announced by government, so that the importation does not happen at a time when the local wheat is ready for marketing, as this may depress the local prices.

Further to the deliberations during the meeting, the farmers emphasised that the local beef industry should at all cost be protected from imports as the country cannot compete favourably in the region because imported beef is assumed to be highly subsidized and fed on GMO products and growth stimulants.