July 10th, 2015 - ZNFU Notes

Lately this has been making the rounds on social media

The guy in charge of load shedding at ZESCO:

I find it somehow fascinating that Homer was chosen, but it's somehow appropriate ... ZESCO's in a bit of an overwhelming situation where they can't fake it and make it.

The immediate issue is due largely to the poor rains the past rainy season vs. power demand. However, others I've spoken blame it on the short-term thinking chronic of parastatals (e.g., government run utilities) ... power generation capability of anything other than household scale (itself the realm of solar) in Zambia is still based entirely on rather dated hydro facilities, and that ZESCO is at fault for not following up on these opportunities in the past ... it means our forests will take an almighty bigger beating for charcoal as the farmers who were shorted by the same rains scramble to make up for lost money by turning on the forests. It may also push some positive change ... more fuel-efficiency, diversity of sources, etc. In the case of Conservation Agriculture, these are great years for getting farmers on board with the technology; it's literally a "join or die" mentality. It's either adopt CA or don't have food ... particularly with another ENSO event looming (see below):

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Excerpts from the ZNFU Weekly Agro Watch (Volume 27)
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El Niño threatens the start of 2015/2016 season in the region

The US Geological Survey has suggested a greater possibility of an El Niño by the start of the 2015/2016 season as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continue across most of the Pacific Ocean continue to rise. Based on historical trend analysis, El Niño conditions would likely result in below-average rainfall. In previous El Niño years, countries affected include, southern parts of Zimbabwe, southern parts of Malawi, northeastern South Africa, and southern and central Mozambique. Based on recent experiences during the 2014/15 season (when similar positive SST conditions were predicted) several areas in the region ended up experiencing a late start of season and erratic rains during the October to December period, resulting in below-average rainfall. However, it should be noted that in some El Niño years, including the 1997/98 season, the region received above-average rains and above-average harvests.

MAIZE

• Zimbabwe is facing maize deficit of over 900,000 metric tons according to Fewsnet assessment in July 2015.
• Malawi, Congo DRC and Angola are facing maize deficits and will rely on informal Zambian maize grain imports between July and December 2015.