Showing posts with label climate change. Show all posts
Showing posts with label climate change. Show all posts

Friday, December 18, 2015

Dec. 18, 2015 - Ruminations on CA (my day-to-day)

The opinions expressed below are the author's alone and do not express the views or opinions of his employer, Concern Worldwide.

Just wanted to plop this down, this are some of the things I ponder on the given day-to-day following visits to beneficiaries. It has been an interesting five years, moving one's head from discussions at this level to the visceral day-to-day of the everyman and everywoman farmer. Putting them together is what makes my head spin. 

Sorry for the delay, power has been an issue.

As per D’s email and our discussion, question #2 around the adoption of CA is very interesting but very large, particularly given that CA is three principles that are something of a goal for farmers to achieve by what could be diverse paths (e.g., there are numerous ways to achieve minimum tillage). However, often what tangles up the question of adoption for many CA promoters is why aren’t people adopting “our” way of achieving minimum tillage, soil cover and crop rotation.

A case in point: Why don’t more non-beneficiaries dig basins? Don’t people generally see the improvements from the practice on another’s field? Currently, we target a specific group of beneficiaries (the extreme poor), they receive trainings and inputs, then dig basins in which they apply the inputs and plant the seeds we’ve given them. Typically, those beneficiaries will carry on some of the practices we promote over the longer term, particularly around digging basins for maize production. However, most non-beneficiaries won’t dig basins … as far as we can tell, they are waiting for participation in the programme (e.g. the attention given to beneficiaries in terms of inputs and training). We noted this week that our even better-off lead farmers have almost no concept of “projects”, project lifetime or the hard facts around funding … consequently, they are often confused why projects come to an end before the entire community has been included in a project. Put shortly, we need to examine our approaches to promoting CA as well as the barriers to what we are promoting, otherwise our promotion in and of itself may be a barrier to adoption.

To put a fine point on it, we know that there are considerable barriers that hinder the adoption of certain practices, even within beneficiaries (I know it is not attractive to Accenture, but the preliminary work we’ve done with consumption support suggests that not only are most people food insecure during the farming season, they operate on such an empty tank that it’s amazing they dig any basins). However, I think what we need to take a longer view of:
a.       The various farming systems, landscapes, etc. (agroecology) to understand primarily why people do what they currently do and what would be the most appropriate CA-related interventions;
b.      How knowledge and information is shared among people (e.g., group, individual, parent to child, etc., etc.)

c.       How to approach (a) utilizing those knowledge networks (b) to plan and design your programme. 

As for research question #3, there’s parts that I think are extremely valuable in a business case, which my brain boils down to primarily “Money invested in farmer < Money realized by farmer” and secondarily as “Farmers doing CA GHG emissions < Farmers not doing CA GHC emissions”. We generally would see that, but we have to assume (as is sadly the case now in Western Province) that food aid is not reaching most of our communities; from what I hear on the ground, relief packs are trickling in, but packs are being split between two families. However, we do know that most of our farmers are net buyers of food and/or engage in daily labour “piecework” in hopes of achieving their daily bread. If we’re looking at return on investments, I feel we need to consider those as outcomes vs. an abstract measure of food aid (e.g., does an investment in a farmer in CA mean they spend less money on food and less on piecework in the next season.

Another point on the GHGs specifically to the Zambia, much of the impact of last years’ drought was the sharp uptick in charcoal production across the southern half of the country, which is significant for a country with one of the top five deforestation rates in the world. There is something of an argument as to whether charcoal production is demand-driven or supply-driven given our issues with ZESCO, but I would posit that most farmers who don’t have to make charcoal would not make charcoal, but have little other option in light of their HH needs for food, school fees, etc.  Long and short, what would a reduction in charcoal burning do to our GHG balance / emissions?

Lastly, I would narrow down the scope of the first bullet because we need to be cognizant of the difference between economic demographic levels and how that might influence the opportunity costs, rates of return, etc. What we’re picking up (and is a good example of “everything is obvious [once you know the answer]”) from our consumption support pilot is that crop diversification (and derived from that, rotation) is hindered by lack of seeds on one hand, but also the simple mathematics of hunger on another … e.g., when you have roughly two hours of kilojoules available, you focus all of those on your crops that will provide the most kilojoules (maize and cassava). What I’m saying is that I’d rather we avoid repeating the studies I’ve read that look at “CA” vs. “conventional ag” ceritas paribus, e.g. one that is independent of place, and is not cognizant of a household’s capability to measure and make long-term decisions.

Sorry for going on at length.




Tuesday, September 8, 2015

September 7th, 2015 - Into the furnace


The views of the author are his alone and do not necessarily represent the views of Concern Worldwide.

The Zambian Kwacha has been on something of a climb lately; we’re used to it creeping upwards, but over the past two weeks it went from 7ish to almost 10. It is a bit breath-taking to watch a currency drop 40% of its value in less than a month. The timing is crummy for us, as farm input prices are figured in dollars; this means the kwacha equivalent of a $10,000 tender on Aug. 15th, for example, is now worth $6,000. We are likely to have a big underspend at the end of the year simply from inflation. We also run the risk of suppliers breaking off contracts, a worrying prospect given the time it takes to do everything by the book. A brief aside, but larger NGOs are notoriously obligated to document the living daylights out of everything, and procedures typically are quite convoluted and usually paper-based. They are ostensibly designed to keep things accountable and transparent; what I know of them is that they keep things from happening quickly or simply.

The government, or rather, the President, has responded appropriately by declaring two new districts in Northwestern Province. The government also took a big chunk of its latest Eurobond to pay against obligations (much against civil servant emoluments that have been delayed) with the hope that pumping hard currency into the economy will slow the fall. It has a bit of wishful thinking involved; forces much larger than Zambia, e.g., the slowdown in the Chinese economy and hence, the lower demand for copper, means less revenues from the resource that erstwhile scholars such as moi consider much more of a curse than a blessing.

In the meantime on the maize front, the Food Reserve Agency raised its price for a 50kg of maize from K70.00 to K75.00 on what appeared to be a spur-of-the-moment announcement by the President at the Lusaka airport. This was something worth pondering a few weeks ago when K7.00 ZMW was equal to $1USD, hence a bag of maize equalled $10.00; now, K10.00 = $1USD, so that same bag is worth $7.50; wonder how much will end up in the market, which adjusts its prices a bit more vigorously.

ZESCO continues to be the punch-bunny for the public’s angst against the government, as ZESCO is a parastatal. If you scroll back through my older posts, I likely explain what a parastatal is multiple times, but just in case: parastatals are government-run companies. A Zambian technocrat would likely get upset over my semantics, as in the one-party state days, parastatals were government-owned and -run. Anyway, there are few of them left after the orgy of liberalization in the late 90’s that along with the AIDS pandemic left the Zambian landscape a wasteland. Unfortunately, they hung on to ZESCO; Zambia (used?) to get loads of foreign currency by selling power, and it’s a patronage thing … working in ZESCO appears to be a golden ticket given the number of nice cars in there parking lots, and the fact that they have parking lots.


Travelled to Mongu today on the Shalom bus; as usual, it was a numbing, nine hour assault on my senses with endless loop of either gospel or rhumba playing at full volume in order to be heard over the engine and the noise of the dry wind coming through cracked windows to keep the bus from becoming unbearable. Was unnaturally hot in Mongu at 16:30 when we arrived; I later checked our station and found out it peaked around 37° C (99° F) just before that. We are in for it in a big way if it’s already that hot … can’t imagine what October will be like.

Tuesday, July 21, 2015

July 21st, 2015 - YA-BAA!! Load Shedding and deforestation

Not surprisingly, the load shedding by the Zambia Electricity Supply Company (ZESCO) is having something of a cultural effect; if someone is dozing, it is "load shedding". The car not starting: load shedding. Slow service: load shedding.

There was a good depiction of the double-whammy people got last week from Choklit over at the Post newspaper, which was having a frenzy over the sitting government ... they are now full-on over the load shedding, though I am puzzled how government could fix that one (e.g., they would literally have to make rain happen five months early).

The most worrying prospect for me over the same is the amount of charcoal burning that rural people are engaging in due to the increased use of it in towns. The introduction and surprisingly fast implementation a few years ago of pre-paid (e.g., "pay-as-you-go") electricity meters by the same ZESCO started an increase in the use of charcoal in urban kitchens (typically where meters are located). The ability to make budget estimates on the spot likely switched any number of people away from electric for cooking or heating water, which are the most expensive in terms of power usage. Also, charcoal has some heating utility that electric generally lacks (yes, it is Africa, but Lusaka sits at 3,600 - 3,800 feet above sea level; trust me, it gets chilly). However, the increased lack of power and the irregular supply, particularly around dinner, has driven the multitudes straight into the arms of charcoal. Needless to say, the price has reached around K90 ($12.00USD) per standard bag in the trading centers that ring the approaches to town, meaning the rural poor with the capability are pretty much going to eschew other activities to make ("burn") charcoal.