July 21st, 2015 - YA-BAA!! Load Shedding and deforestation

Not surprisingly, the load shedding by the Zambia Electricity Supply Company (ZESCO) is having something of a cultural effect; if someone is dozing, it is "load shedding". The car not starting: load shedding. Slow service: load shedding.

There was a good depiction of the double-whammy people got last week from Choklit over at the Post newspaper, which was having a frenzy over the sitting government ... they are now full-on over the load shedding, though I am puzzled how government could fix that one (e.g., they would literally have to make rain happen five months early).

The most worrying prospect for me over the same is the amount of charcoal burning that rural people are engaging in due to the increased use of it in towns. The introduction and surprisingly fast implementation a few years ago of pre-paid (e.g., "pay-as-you-go") electricity meters by the same ZESCO started an increase in the use of charcoal in urban kitchens (typically where meters are located). The ability to make budget estimates on the spot likely switched any number of people away from electric for cooking or heating water, which are the most expensive in terms of power usage. Also, charcoal has some heating utility that electric generally lacks (yes, it is Africa, but Lusaka sits at 3,600 - 3,800 feet above sea level; trust me, it gets chilly). However, the increased lack of power and the irregular supply, particularly around dinner, has driven the multitudes straight into the arms of charcoal. Needless to say, the price has reached around K90 ($12.00USD) per standard bag in the trading centers that ring the approaches to town, meaning the rural poor with the capability are pretty much going to eschew other activities to make ("burn") charcoal.

July 15th, 2015 - ZNFU Notes, Fuel Prices and FRA

Excerpts from the weekly Agro Watch, Volume 28 2015

My notes in red.

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Fuel:

Diesel and petrol Prices hit K8.59 and K9.87 respectively. The Energy Regulation Board (ERB) has adjusted the pump price of petroleum products by K1.13 for petrol; K1.00 for diesel; K0.72 for kerosene and has maintained the price of low sulphur diesel (diesel), effective midnight of 13th July 2015. Consequently, the prices will now be as follows: Diesel pump price increases to K8.59 from K7.59; while Petrol pump price increases to K9.87 from K8.74. The ERB attributes the increase in oil prices to depreciation of the local currency (Kwacha) against major convertible currencies such as the US dollar. This is despite the fact that crude oil prices on the world market have continued to fall currently at US56.76 per barrel.

Maize:

• In Zambia, the Permanent Secretary for Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock has maintained that Government would only purchase 500,000MT of maize for the Strategic Reserve (they said the same thing last year and ended up buying 900,000MT).
• Ministry of Agriculture has urged farmers to take advantage of private sector maize buyers as opposed to waiting for FRA floor price. (It's not a "floor price" ... what that term means is the absolute minimum at which maize can be purchased is the floor price. What the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) does is set a pan-territorial [nationwide for all depots, satellite depots, etc.] price for a 50kg bag of white maize at 12% moisture content. In 2014, the price was raised from K65.00 / bag [the price from 2010] to K70.00 per bag ... this year's price remains to be seen.)
• FRA has reported that current maize stocks for strategic reserve stands at 393,393MT, and that the Agency will only buy maize in 4 provinces namely: Luapula; Muchinga; North Western and Northern Provinces. (I would have to check, but at least three of those voted for the ruling party in the last election). FRA indicated that the above provinces are not adequately covered by the private sector buyers compared to other provinces along the line of rail (Funny ... Eastern and Western Province don't have railroads. Of course, Western also lacks maize outside of Kaoma.)
• Local average maize price have continued to strengthen backed by the strong demand and limited supply of the commodity. The grain average price for the previous week was pegged at K1, 195/Mt. Prices of the commodity delivered to Lusaka are now averaging K1450/MT. The graph below shows average local maize price trends. (Kind of an obvious one ... the demand for maize in Zambia is equivalent to saying "the demand for oxygen"). 

July 13th, 2015 - ZNFU Notes (Waiting for the FRA; Load Shedding)

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*Excerpts from Friday Brief, Week 28 (10-July-2015*
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LOAD SHEDDING AFFECTS MILK PROCESSORS

A number of processors have bemoaned non adherence to the load shedding schedules by ZESCO as some have gone without power for more than 8hours.This has resulted in increased production costs as processors resort to generators and other expensive alternative sources of power . Most processors have had challenges in collecting milk from Milk Collection Centres (MCCs) as they cannot offload and process milk already at the plant due to power outages by ZESCO. This has in turn has affected MCC operations as they fail to receive milk from the farmers. Dairy Association of Zambia (DAZ) is in the process of undertaking a survey to establish the exact impact of power outages members.

2014/15 FRA CROP MARKETING PREPARATIONS COMMENCE IN SESHEKE

Preparations for the 2014/15 crop marketing season by FRA have commenced in Sesheke district. The Agency has already deployed its field staff to 29 satellite depots besides other logistical arrangements that are being put in place. Initially 18 satellite depots were planned to be opened, but then, the lobbying done by the DFA in collaboration with Ministry of Agriculture convinced the Agency to increase the number by 11 satellite depots.

In another development, the District Commissioner’s office has assured the people of Sesheke district that relief food will soon be given to people who are badly hit with hunger.

FARMERS ANTICIPATING A CHALLENGING MARKETING SEASON

Farmers in Solwezi district are worried by the slow pace at which logistics are being put in place by the FRA for this year’s crop marketing season. The farmers have observed that there is delay in the announcement of the maize flour price and the official opening of the crop marketing season. The farmers have further complained that the late preparations might result into more complications when the marketing exercise begins.

NORTH WEST FARMERS IN DESPERATE WAIT FOR FRA MARKET

Maize Farmers in the north western part of the country are anxiously waiting for the opening of the maize marketing exercise by the Food Reserve Agency (FRA). A check by the ZNFU at different marketing depots in the province found that several farmers have already taken their Maize produce there in readiness for the start of the marketing exercise

July 10th, 2015 - ZNFU Notes

Lately this has been making the rounds on social media

The guy in charge of load shedding at ZESCO:

I find it somehow fascinating that Homer was chosen, but it's somehow appropriate ... ZESCO's in a bit of an overwhelming situation where they can't fake it and make it.

The immediate issue is due largely to the poor rains the past rainy season vs. power demand. However, others I've spoken blame it on the short-term thinking chronic of parastatals (e.g., government run utilities) ... power generation capability of anything other than household scale (itself the realm of solar) in Zambia is still based entirely on rather dated hydro facilities, and that ZESCO is at fault for not following up on these opportunities in the past ... it means our forests will take an almighty bigger beating for charcoal as the farmers who were shorted by the same rains scramble to make up for lost money by turning on the forests. It may also push some positive change ... more fuel-efficiency, diversity of sources, etc. In the case of Conservation Agriculture, these are great years for getting farmers on board with the technology; it's literally a "join or die" mentality. It's either adopt CA or don't have food ... particularly with another ENSO event looming (see below):

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Excerpts from the ZNFU Weekly Agro Watch (Volume 27)
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El Niño threatens the start of 2015/2016 season in the region

The US Geological Survey has suggested a greater possibility of an El Niño by the start of the 2015/2016 season as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continue across most of the Pacific Ocean continue to rise. Based on historical trend analysis, El Niño conditions would likely result in below-average rainfall. In previous El Niño years, countries affected include, southern parts of Zimbabwe, southern parts of Malawi, northeastern South Africa, and southern and central Mozambique. Based on recent experiences during the 2014/15 season (when similar positive SST conditions were predicted) several areas in the region ended up experiencing a late start of season and erratic rains during the October to December period, resulting in below-average rainfall. However, it should be noted that in some El Niño years, including the 1997/98 season, the region received above-average rains and above-average harvests.

MAIZE

• Zimbabwe is facing maize deficit of over 900,000 metric tons according to Fewsnet assessment in July 2015.
• Malawi, Congo DRC and Angola are facing maize deficits and will rely on informal Zambian maize grain imports between July and December 2015.

July 7th, 2015 - ZNFU Notes (Load Shedding in Zambia)

Hello sports fans ... just got back from some leave to see the folks in the States. 

Sitting in the dark, surprisingly early after being in the northern U.S. during the height of summer. Darkness has been aided by load shedding, as you'll note below (twice) in the weekly ZNFU update. 

Excerpts from the ZNFU weekly update (Week 27, 2015)

ZESCO TAKES DRASTIC LOADSHEDDING MEASURES

At a ZNFU/ZESCO Committee meeting held on 2^nd July 2015, Zesco presented a gloomy picture of hydro generation of power because of low water levels at Kariba Dam and Itezhi -Tezhi. In a presentation made to farmers representatives from various farming areas which included Mazabuka, Lusaka, Chisamba and Mkushi, Zesco pointed out that at the current rate of generation, water levels would drop drastically by September to a point where generation could ground to a halt.

To avert this situation, Zesco has to drop power generation levels to an average of about 500 MW daily and this is against a maximum daily load of 1500 MW hence they have to engage in drastic demand side management through load shedding of all stakeholders including the mines to balance the load. Therefore, Zesco has worked out load shedding options of at least 8 hours in some areas. Farmers expressed concern over the lack of early warning but Zesco indicated that initial weather forecast provided to them by Meteorological Department (MET) had predicted that water levels would rise but with time this has not materialised.

Amidst all these challenges, farmers engaged in irrigation of winter crops especially wheat are encouraged to familiarize with the load-shedding schedules in the respective area and orient farm operations in line with the load-shedding times. Farmers should also engage local Zesco offices in case of changes to be proposed to the published times. Copies of such requests should be forwarded to the Union to assist with follow up as Zesco has indicated that that they remain committed to work with stakeholders in addressing emerging challenges during this time. At the meeting, farmers also requested that within the farming areas, wheat farmers should be considered for a shorter period of load shedding maximum six hours for the period July through to end of August.

ZESCO LOAD SHEDDING CAUSES HIKE IN FUEL PRICE

The continuous load shedding of power by ZESCO has inspired local fuel vendors in Kasempa district to increase the fuel price to as high as K13.00 per litre. The situation has also compelled motorists to also increase transport fares on some routes within Kasempa district from K10.00 to K 15.00. A check conducted by ZNFU staffer at the only fuel service station in the district found motorists stranded because the service station had not received any fuel since Monday, 29^th July, 2015.

LIONS TERRORIZE CHAVUMA RESIDENTS

It has been reported that 3 lions have been terrorizing farmers in Chikanta area from which the lions have since killed 5 herds of cattle and 3 goats. This has caused panic among the farmers in Chikanta area. This development was confirmed by the District Commissioner Mr. Lawrence Kayumba who warned Chavuma residents who attended the commemoration of the world VCT day to be careful as they go to harvest in the areas near Chikanta.  ZAWA has since moved to the area to try and capture the lions.

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