April 19th, 2016 - The Maize Front

It has been difficult to be away from Zambia in what is turning out to be a crucial year in the continuing saga of maize: 

• Zambia announced back on the 6th (April) that maize exports, inclusive of bran, the by products of milling off the endocarp when making white (breakfast meal);
• Maize prices in Zambia are allegedly going to be controlled by government, but the routine of cross-border smuggling (through buyers purchasing at retail and reselling in DRC and Malawi) from two years ago and last year is replaying on a much greater scale;
• Queues for maize meal have been increasing, with buyers at supermarkets (e.g., Shoprite, Pick-n-Pay, etc.) limited to one 25kg bag per person;
• Prices have gone through the roof for the commodity, particularly in southwest and western Zambia, with 25kg of mealie meal selling at K200 ($21.39USD);
• Farmers in the same region as above are selling cows ... something of a !! because only better off have cows and they are not usually sold unless they are on death's door. "Prices" are in barter; families are getting 4 or 5 bags of maize (unmilled) for a single cow. This represents a kwacha value of K280 to K350 ($30 ~ $37.4 USD) per cow, as reported on-the-ground from Mwandi, west of Livingstone.

Word from ZNFU:

CME Soya futures price for May 2016 delivery opened trading at US$354.21/MT on 18th April 2016.

Local Soya beans spot prices were still hovering around ZMW5, 900-6,400/MT ($630 - 684USD) last week according to information captured on the ZNFU market price information system.

...

Malawi is forecasting a further reduction in its maize output this year. The country’s production estimates are currently around 2.43 million tons against a national consumption requirement estimated at 3.2 million tons. Zambia has been a major source of the maize grain to Malawi over the last year through both formal and informal trade. Meanwhile the Malawian President on 12th April declared a state of national disaster as the northern part of the country experiences floods and the southern drought.

On the local scene GRZ through Ministry of Agriculture is expected to issue a Statutory Instrument (SI) to facilitate the trading of maize grain and maize products sometime this week. This follows recent announcement by the Ministry of Agriculture that the country had adequate stocks to meet the national demand for maize.

 The CME Corn futures price for March 2016 delivery opened trading at US$147.71/MT on 18th April 2016.

 The offer price on the ZNFU market information system was in the range of ZMW 1,300/MT to ZMW 1,900/MT ($139.03 - 203 USD) in the week ending 18th April 2016.

...

AVERAGE DAY OLD CHICK PRICES
... No changes were registered in the price of day old chicks during the course of the week. However, day old chick outlets/agents have indicated that there has been a significant drop in the sales of day old chicks this year mainly caused by the increased cost of production, particularly increased cost of feed which some of the small scale farmers cannot keep up with.

January 16th, 2016 - Not a viable field

This blog represents the views of the author's alone, and does not represent the views of his employer, Concern Worldwide.

News from the World of Maize:

Over the past few days, I hosted a friend of mine who works in southwestern Zambia and northern Malawi. He clued me in to some of the bits of information:

1. Maize stocks in Malawi are at spectacularly low levels ... he revealed a date of March 4th as the proverbial D-Day. I did a bit of digging online and FEWSNET has the following concurrence Currently food insecure populations in 12 districts spanning parts of the southern and northern regions are receiving assistance. Response programming to these areas and an additional 13 districts have enough funding for implementation through February 2016. Assistance originally planned for the month of March 2016 is uncertain due to a remaining 25 percent funding shortfall
2. It was interesting the deadline of March, which is keyed to the availability of direct budgetary aid, something which the Malawian government relies on to a greater extant that most countries in the region, a by-product of not being blessed [cursed] with mineral or other resources of the extraction variety. Part of what R. said got me trolling through the web; it appears that Malawi's President Peter Mutharika is under pressure to accept donor aid, particularly from DFiD, with some strings attached, namely that Malawi decriminalizes homosexuality. This has caused quite a stir in what I consider a significantly more conservative country than Zambia. According to the BBC, a moratorium was enacted on the laws, but full repeal of the law is a huge issue of realpolitik for Mutharika, who risks incredible backlash on the issue against both himself and threatened recrimination against the LGBT community. 
3. This has been accompanied by a steady rise of maize prices on the market (as is the case in Zambia) that has not been helped by the suspension of sales from ADMARC, Malawi's parastatal [government-run] agriculture marketing board which is by the largest buyer and seller of maize in the country. This has been exacerbated by the theft of maize by local ADMARC officers.

This morning, four hours after we parted ways, he sent this he sent this chilling text as he drove through Southern Province:

"Country is f***ed, not one viable maize field from Maz[abuka] to Choma, brutal!"

11 January 2016 - 30 Days to Go

The views expressed on this blog are those of the author along, and do not reflect the views of his employer, Concern Worldwide.

Happy New Year's! You patient and erstwhile readers ... 

My last day of work for Concern Worldwide Zambia is 29th January, and I have a plane ticket home booked on the 10th February. Goodbye, Zambia after 12 years. As such, I made a solemn oath to myself to write a blog post and journal entry every day, if for nothing else to remember sometime in the dim and likely more brutal future what I was experiencing these last few weeks. 

It is strange; in some ways, the process of disengaging oneself from a place and a context of cultures (Lozi, Tonga, Kaonde, Lala, Indian, White African, Chinese, ex-pat, et cetera) is that you run through the process of engagement, albeit in reverse. Maybe it's the odd way my mind works ... but separating yourself from what everyday amateur sociologists refer to as a "space" brings you back up the path from where that space was normal. E.g., you start to shed your expectations / assumptions of how people behave, how the world should work, how to begin and end things, how to speak with someone, and so on. In my case, I have become far less stressed and far more forgiving because there is an end (at least here) to the crazy results-based tilt-a-whirl that you climb on in the donor-funded development world. On the 29th, I will climb off, handover the reins to my replacement, and have 12 days to blink and think, and to wonder to myself, as I do over most of my memories ... Was it all real? Did I do that? How did I do that? What happened to all those people? Did I make a difference? Will they remember me? 

Unfortunately, deep pondering is something I can little afford whilst trying to sell my worldly possessions (mainly a car, a bicycle, and a bookshelf), handing over 12 years of agroecological experience, and looking for a new job in my soon-to-be new home, Washington, D.C. Hence the necessity and the catharsis ingrained in typing these things out ... it's 20-40 minutes where part of me steps back and views the passage of this vessel through this life, and marks somewhat cohesively which course it chose and why.

Outside of my head, we traveled en-masse from Lusaka to Mongu in one of the agency's Land Cruisers yesterday, leaving at 8:20a and arriving at 5:20p (17:20hrs). Along the way, it started raining west of Kaoma, and it rained intermittently for the rest of the journey. Mongu is a lovely place when it rains; the sandy streets and shoulders of the main roads flatten out and become hard enough to walk upon easily; the air clears of its load of dust and soot, and the grass! Oh, does it grow ... especially in the semi-divinity of the floodplains and along it's margins, the matongo and shishanjo areas.

Before leaving, I took a swipe (pardon the upcoming pun) at what some friends of mine at Grassroots Trust have been promoting and to which I'm slowly signing onto ... the idea that instead of the usual digging operation that is inherent in Zambian weeding cultivation, e.g. "hoeing" or "weeding", you engage in slashing the weeds in the interrow (the space between the lines of maize). I learned this entirely from my friend Sebastian Scott, who like me keeps something of a blog on how to do agriculture in a way that is ultra-conservative of organic matter, inclusive of weed growth. To make a long story short, I intercropped orange maize with black sunnhemp, a heavy nitrogen fixer in our small plot next to our office in Kalundu. Though we've had limited rains in Lusaka, my raking the area into rough terraces and the shade from the trees in the area have helped the maize, and it is surprisingly healthy. Anyway, after watering the little office garden (more on that some other time), I had 30 minutes to slash the sunnhemp down, though  being the total idiot that I am, I neglected to take before (only after) photos.

So what you are looking at is the remnants of the weeds that were before slashing at the same height as the maize. though I am by no means experienced with the one-handed slasher common in Zambia, it was relatively quick to figure out how to slash, e.g. a short swing, standing behind one row of maize and slashing the next, etc. What's left behind is a green mulch that hopefully with contact with the wet soils add a bit of nutrients to the slightly nitrogen deprived maize. More importantly, however, is the increase in light reach the maize leaves vis-a-vi the decrease in shading by plants in the interrow. Last, but not least, I was impressed by the ease of it ... rather than being hunched over hoeing, digging and lifting a blunt piece of dumb iron, I was upright swinging the slasher in short strokes. Noticeably harder on the forearms, but I would trade that any day for the ache in the back, the sore hands, the exhaustion and the time.

Anxious to see how this turns out. 

21 December - Prioritising in Agriculture

The views expressed on this blog are the author's alone and do not reflect the views or opinions of his employer, Concern Worldwide.

A recent editorial in the Post ... as usual, my comments in red among the text.

Chinese Ambassador to Zambia Yang Youming is urging Zambia to prioritise agriculture as it is essential to the development of any nation.

“In terms of development of agriculture and this is the basis of economic takeoff in China because when we talk about the economic miracle in China, we always talk about industrialisation in China and China being the main manufacturing base for commodities to be exported to the entire world. But we must remember the first thing we emphasise is that we should have a solid agricultural base because you have to provide food and clothing to our people. And food and clothing all come from agriculture, so agriculture has always been and will remain a priority area,” says Ambassador Yang.

For Zambia, we have no sensible alternative to prioritising agriculture. The great majority of our people are dependent on agriculture for survival. Eight five [85%] per cent of our country’s workforce is in agriculture. And only six per cent of our labour force is deployed in the industry. The remaining nine per cent is in services.

The argument CFU makes is that most of these people in agriculture are not "farmers" per se, e.g. the production of food, fuel and/or fibre is not the primary goal of their farming endeavors. There is some truth to that, but the letter of the article is fundamentally correct ... they are growing crops for survival, e.g. food. Disqualifying someone as a farmer is all well and good, but it remains the essential means of survival for the overwhelming majority of rural Zambians.

But despite 85 per cent of our people being deployed in agriculture, the sector’s contribution to our GDP is only 19.80 per cent. The contribution to our GDP by industry and services is far above that of agriculture - 33.80 per cent for industry and 46.5 per cent for services. How can a sector in which 85 per cent of our workforce is deployed account for less than 20 per cent of our GDP? Despite 85 per cent of our workforce being deployed in agriculture, only 4.52 per cent of our arable land is under use. And only 0.05 per cent of that land has permanent crops. And with so much water, only 1,559 square kilometres is irrigated land.

There is some funny math at work here ... would be interesting how you count maize (the faraway leader in crops planted by that 85%) after taking away government subsidies on the production and consumption of the same. Most of what IAPRI says is that the majority of those 85% don't produce a surplus for sale. So ... huge labor force contributing almost nothing to the GDP.

It is clear that we have not prioritised agriculture. The contribution of agriculture to our GDP is too low and more so given its great potential. With 85 per cent of our workforce deployed in agriculture, it means that agriculture is the major source of livelihood for the great majority of Zambians who today, over 60 per cent of them live in abject poverty.

This means that if we have to move our people out of poverty, great effort will need to be exerted to increase agricultural production and consequently increase incomes of the majority poor who are totally dependent on agriculture for survival. This will call for consistent and sustainable high productivity growth in agriculture.

Okay, a bit of funny logic at work here; bunch of people do agriculture, ergo, improving agriculture production will "increase incomes of the majority poor who are totally dependent on agriculture for survival". Most people we work with are a lot like kids on Midwestern farm in the U.S.A. ... once they get the chance, they boost off the farm looking for easier work that pays cash (you would, too if you spent your formulative years swinging a hoe). Even people in rural areas are not likely to engage in sale of farm produce; they may engage in some other livelihood activity. This is where people get the message goobered up ... if you were to, say, get everybody to be a better cabbage farmer, what the hell would they do with all those cabbages? Same really with maize; people, typically the great mass of poor, are really excited when their production equals their consumption levels, or if their production allows them to reach their yearround consumption levels (vis-a-vi sale of their produce). 

To improve agriculture, a lot of things have to change. Our agricultural policies have to change. We can’t continue with the policies that have failed our people and have left them poor over many decades.

Here we go. Policies. As if words on paper can make the soil fertile. 

There will be need for diversification in agriculture. It doesn’t make sense to continue thinking and acting as if maize production is all that agriculture is about. Crop diversification is urgently needed. There is need to promote other crops that can be easily or cheaply grown by our people. And not every part of our country is good for every crop. 

We also need to find markets for all those diverse crops and figure out how to dismantle the great spinning economic, gastronomic, cultural and political engine that maize production and consumption has become. 

There is need to strengthen co-operative structures if we are to improve agriculture, especially for the poor. Efficiently run co-operatives can help a lot in terms of marketing, skills building, research, ICT services, finance, infrastructure and irrigation investment.

Now off to find that cooperative that efficiently uses all those services. "Cooperative" is what I call an automatic word. When you say "cooperative", farmers hear "subsidized inputs". They need to not think of the word "cooperative". Maybe "covenant" or "tontine", though the latter might bring in some interesting repercussions. 

There is also need to focus on crops that will help ensure household and national food security and also provide some surplus for exports. Such crops may include Irish and sweet potatoes, mixed beans, cowpeas, groundnuts, cashew nuts, fruits, in addition to cassava, millet and sorghum.

The contribution of our agriculture to exports is very low. It is just about five per cent. This needs to be increased if we are to see a reversal of economic fortunes.

Of course, crops like sugar, wheat, barley, soya beans, cotton, tea, coffee, tobacco, sunflower and so on and so forth also need policy priority if we are to develop a strong agri-business and light manufacturing.

Sigh. Of all of those, soyabeans, cotton, tobacco and sunflower are within the realm of reason (barely) for a small-scale farmer to grow (the others require irrigation and quite specific management regimes. However, these would be the best-off farmers, those with land and labour to spare. This past week when meeting with farmers, I recognized that the great mass of rural Zambians, who often operate on a quarter-tank with regards to caloric energy, plant maize and cassava because they are a) easy to get and b) provide the most calories. You don't go planting cotton or tobacco when your body's screaming for fuel.

Livestock production also needs to be increased if we are to meet the rising domestic demand and create a surplus for export and increase the incomes of our people. Livestock production calls for improved testing and treatment of all diseases of economic importance for cattle, pigs, goats, sheep and poultry in order to stabilise and increase stocking levels.

Funny enough, it appears that the number of cows in the country could meet demand; it's just that selling cows for money is still at cross-purposes with the fundamentals of cattle possession in the social context; status, non-liquid wealth, the medium of exchange to seal marriage arrangements, etc. Chickens are the way to go; less touchy with the whole gender thing, and villagers are so attached to Lil' Cluck-cluck.

Of late, the Minister of Finance Alexander Chikwanda has shown some increasing interest in fish farming. And the President has also shown some interest in this sector. But more needs to be done to improve fish farming. What is coming out of our fish farms is too little to meet the increasing demand for fish that has been complicated by the depletion of fish stocks in our rivers and lakes.

We agree with Ambassador Yang’s observations on the need to prioritise agriculture. It is a sector in which the great majority of our people are deployed. The poverty that we are experiencing today is a result of poor agriculture. (my opinion poor agriculture practices) If agriculture improves, the poverty levels will equally drop (will they really?). We have low agricultural productivity because the sector is not receiving adequate attention. We are spending over US$300 million per annum subsidising maize. But what are we getting out of that investment as a country? There is no strong political will needed for crop diversification. Too much political opportunism is tied to agricultural policies. Political (and cultural and gastronomic) sensitivities have ridiculously been created around maize production and subsidies. It’s time we stopped cheating our people and took a courageous way out of these sterile agricultural policies that are leading us nowhere other than to the deepening of poverty.

True ... but it's the practices, the capacity of extension to improve practices, and the mentality of how to improve production that are at fault. The Ministry of Agriculture is packed with ghost workers, agriculture officers not at their posts, or agriculture officers who fail to develop, recognize, and / or refine local innovations, etc. It is a system built on the assumption that knowledge comes from on high and should be followed w/out question. I think our constant struggles with CA come from the fact that everyone wants to harmonize the methods (e.g., basins and ripping), rather than understanding the goals likely have multiple opportunities for realization.

Whatever we do, whatever we earn from mining and other sectors, without meaningful developments in agriculture, we are going nowhere and we  will not be able to move our people out of poverty. 

Let's move them out of hunger first. 

Dec. 18, 2015 - Ruminations on CA (my day-to-day)

The opinions expressed below are the author's alone and do not express the views or opinions of his employer, Concern Worldwide.

Just wanted to plop this down, this are some of the things I ponder on the given day-to-day following visits to beneficiaries. It has been an interesting five years, moving one's head from discussions at this level to the visceral day-to-day of the everyman and everywoman farmer. Putting them together is what makes my head spin. 

Sorry for the delay, power has been an issue.

As per D’s email and our discussion, question #2 around the adoption of CA is very interesting but very large, particularly given that CA is three principles that are something of a goal for farmers to achieve by what could be diverse paths (e.g., there are numerous ways to achieve minimum tillage). However, often what tangles up the question of adoption for many CA promoters is why aren’t people adopting “our” way of achieving minimum tillage, soil cover and crop rotation.

A case in point: Why don’t more non-beneficiaries dig basins? Don’t people generally see the improvements from the practice on another’s field? Currently, we target a specific group of beneficiaries (the extreme poor), they receive trainings and inputs, then dig basins in which they apply the inputs and plant the seeds we’ve given them. Typically, those beneficiaries will carry on some of the practices we promote over the longer term, particularly around digging basins for maize production. However, most non-beneficiaries won’t dig basins … as far as we can tell, they are waiting for participation in the programme (e.g. the attention given to beneficiaries in terms of inputs and training). We noted this week that our even better-off lead farmers have almost no concept of “projects”, project lifetime or the hard facts around funding … consequently, they are often confused why projects come to an end before the entire community has been included in a project. Put shortly, we need to examine our approaches to promoting CA as well as the barriers to what we are promoting, otherwise our promotion in and of itself may be a barrier to adoption.

To put a fine point on it, we know that there are considerable barriers that hinder the adoption of certain practices, even within beneficiaries (I know it is not attractive to Accenture, but the preliminary work we’ve done with consumption support suggests that not only are most people food insecure during the farming season, they operate on such an empty tank that it’s amazing they dig any basins). However, I think what we need to take a longer view of:

a.       The various farming systems, landscapes, etc. (agroecology) to understand primarily why people do what they currently do and what would be the most appropriate CA-related interventions;

b.      How knowledge and information is shared among people (e.g., group, individual, parent to child, etc., etc.)

c.       How to approach (a) utilizing those knowledge networks (b) to plan and design your programme. 

As for research question #3, there’s parts that I think are extremely valuable in a business case, which my brain boils down to primarily “Money invested in farmer < Money realized by farmer” and secondarily as “Farmers doing CA GHG emissions < Farmers not doing CA GHC emissions”. We generally would see that, but we have to assume (as is sadly the case now in Western Province) that food aid is not reaching most of our communities; from what I hear on the ground, relief packs are trickling in, but packs are being split between two families. However, we do know that most of our farmers are net buyers of food and/or engage in daily labour “piecework” in hopes of achieving their daily bread. If we’re looking at return on investments, I feel we need to consider those as outcomes vs. an abstract measure of food aid (e.g., does an investment in a farmer in CA mean they spend less money on food and less on piecework in the next season.

Another point on the GHGs specifically to the Zambia, much of the impact of last years’ drought was the sharp uptick in charcoal production across the southern half of the country, which is significant for a country with one of the top five deforestation rates in the world. There is something of an argument as to whether charcoal production is demand-driven or supply-driven given our issues with ZESCO, but I would posit that most farmers who don’t have to make charcoal would not make charcoal, but have little other option in light of their HH needs for food, school fees, etc.  Long and short, what would a reduction in charcoal burning do to our GHG balance / emissions?

Lastly, I would narrow down the scope of the first bullet because we need to be cognizant of the difference between economic demographic levels and how that might influence the opportunity costs, rates of return, etc. What we’re picking up (and is a good example of “everything is obvious [once you know the answer]”) from our consumption support pilot is that crop diversification (and derived from that, rotation) is hindered by lack of seeds on one hand, but also the simple mathematics of hunger on another … e.g., when you have roughly two hours of kilojoules available, you focus all of those on your crops that will provide the most kilojoules (maize and cassava). What I’m saying is that I’d rather we avoid repeating the studies I’ve read that look at “CA” vs. “conventional ag” ceritas paribus, e.g. one that is independent of place, and is not cognizant of a household’s capability to measure and make long-term decisions.

Sorry for going on at length.

18 November, 2015 - No rains yet ... and ... ZNFU Agro Watch Notes

This blog represents the views of the author alone, and does not reflect the opinions of his employer, Concern Worldwide. 

Greetings, again dear readers wherever or whoever you may be.

We are still awaiting the "planting rains", three days after a singularly important day on two levels for me as an agriculturalist in Zambia, and as a Yooper. November 15th to the 25th is highly critical for Zambian farmers as it represents the optimal planting window for maize. Why? I'll summarize a few hours worth of training into a few bullets:

• Nitrogen flush:   Once rains kick off, the air and soil temperatures drop off precipitously (a brief aside ... last week I was in mid-40s C temps in Liuwa Plains NP, Kalabo, Mongu, Senanga, Sesheke, Livingstone, and Chirundu ... maybe I'll write briefly about ringing the west and south, maybe not. Anyway, the precipitous drop means soil temps go down to low 30s/high 20s ... still plenty of heating units even in mulched soils). Once these temps drop (and some moisture comes into play), saprotrophs and heterotrophs start breaking down organic material in the soil, which is then  mineralized into plant available forms (plants don't chew raw nutrients ... they suck it up as a solution, another reason moisture is key). Anyway, flush is the real word ... it's there and gone in a hurry as our soil temps are generally high, and in farmed fields, the tradition of burning crop residues prior to planting reduces available organic matter. The microbes essentially eat and reproduce themselves out of house and home in a hurry, even faster if they till the soil (which increases oxidation and mineralization rates by aerobic bacteria. Anyway, long and short is that if you can catch that flush, especially in maize, you get a huge boost in the critical first four weeks of the plant growth, effectively developing a much more effective photosynthetic engine. 

• Daylength:  Maize is a sun-loving plant; not a surprise, given the demands it puts on the photosynthetic outputs (big stalk, heavy cobs, etc). We don't see this much in temperate climes as we have comparatively long summer days (heat and degree days are more the problem). However, in Zambia, days range from 13 hours in the summer (with longer in the south) to 11 hours in the winter. Catching as much sun as possible means more photosynthetic output, and consequently, a bigger plant. Some estimates show that yield loses from planting after November 25th equal 2% of potential yield per day (!). Also, and I'm wandering out onto thin ice, but maize often flowers (depending on the genotypes) based off the daylength, which can mean some plants may flower prior to being "ready" (growth-wise) to flower. It, like all aspects of maize, are somewhat strange and fascinating ... a great thesis from a Zambian student at Iowa State in the late 1980s explains somewhat why tropical maize grown in the temperate zones gets really big (leafy) but produces little (something I've observed as well). 

• Rain: This damnable ENSO (el Nino) event is going to make life miserable for farmers despite rainbows, prayers, days of fasting, etc. (Appealing to the Almighty is understandable and I often do so myself, but the extent that it actively destroys agency and responsibility gets a bit wearisome). Anyway, we are going to have short (late start, early finish) rains, and likely low annual accumulations between October and April, the months in which nearly all the rain falls and which we typically measure. The earlier you plant, and combined with the above, the more of that rain you catch, the better the yield. 

Long and short, plant early ... and not just maize! 

Notes from ZNFU Friday Brief (Week 46) (My notes in red text):

The Minister of Agriculture, Hon. Given Lubinda, MP has assured maize farmers in Zambia that maize markets will still be available for the 2015/2016 crop despite the increasing input costs that farmers are currently experiencing. The Minister said this when ZNFU President, Dr Nguleka and her team presented an Issues paper on the increasing costs of maize production for the 2015/2016 crop at the Ministry of Agriculture on Friday 13^th November 2015. The Minister assured maize farmers that government will allow market forces (demand and supply) to operate in order to ensure farmers get a better price for their crop. Hon. Lubinda observed that farming is a business and government will continue to provide a conducive environment aimed at encouraging further investment in the sector.

I was at the recent IAPRI conference for Western and Southern Provinces (same day) and he (Hon. Lubinda) was in attendance. Welcome relief (I'm on Minister of Agriculture #4 or 5 since 2010) as he seems fairly straightforward, though no one could ever match Bob Sichinga's sensayuma. Anyway, if they want farming to be a business, GRZ needs to pull out of both FISP and FRA. Lubinda gets that, but maize subsidies are like holding the proverbial political wolf by the ears: you don't like it, but you sure as hell don't want to let go.

SUNFLOWER PRODUCTION: THE BLOOMING INDUSTRY

The oilseed stakeholders met on 11^th November at the ZNFU offices to review the market situation of soya beans and other oilseeds. Whilst expressing appreciation the importance of maintaining export relations, the stakeholders agreed that there was need for stakeholder consultations before any exports of soya beans could be allowed so as to support the growth of the soya beans value chain. During the deliberations, the farmers indicated that there was need for traders and processors to enter into pre-planting contracts with the farmers, as uncertainty over the markets affects the farmer’s decision on what quantities of the crop to grow. The farmers were assured that demand of soya beans would be high in 2016 and that some off-takers were ready to sign supply contracts with the farmers.

The stakeholders were informed that there was readily available sunflower market with the demand in 2015 projected at least 50,000MT by oilseed crusher with a potential to expand further should supply increase. Farmers were encouraged to grow high oleic sunflower varieties to attract premium prices.  Stakeholders however bemoaned the inadequate supply of high yielding sunflower seed varieties on the local market and proposed that seed companies should be engaged for sustainable growth of the sunflower industry.

I take some pride in being part of the introduction of sunflowers into Western Province in 2010 and 2011. However, despite it growing fine (if planted early) in Zambia with minimal inputs and efforts, it is still planted on a relatively low scale. The whole out-grower scheme would be ideal but for the fact that our farming season straddles the fiscal year turnover. The farmers have it right on this; knowing the price in advance would likely guarantee production, as marketing points for sunflower are not nearly as ubiquitous as maize.

 2015 WHEAT PRODUCTION ESTIMATED AT OVER 300,000 TONS

The ZNFU wheat and barley commodity committee met on Thursday 12^th November 2015 to review the 2015 wheat production estimates. Based on information captured through satellite imagery, the total area under wheat in 2015 was 46,156 hectares out of which, 42,564Ha was observed to be normal, 1,916Ha had somewhat stressed/below average wheat while 1,675ha had stressed wheat. The total production has been estimated at 309,100 of wheat while the 2015 barley crop harvest has been pegged at 8,800tons. The farmers expressed concern on the high levels of uncommitted wheat crop still available in the farmers’ hands with little propensity by the millers to purchase the crop. The meeting was further informed that the estimated national wheat consumption requirement is 387,193MT. It was however highlighted that due to load shedding, indication from the millers was that while there have been some attempts to invest in alternative sources of power, their normal production levels had dropped by about 30%. It was further stated that demand for flour and flour products was being affected by the rising cost of living.

Just a note ... nearly all wheat is grown by a relative handful of very large scale farmers (inclusive of quite a number of white ex-Zimbabweans) under pivot irrigation. It's sown just after the rains and irrigated throughout the early part of the dry season, then matures and dries under the later, hotter part of the dry season; usually they combine it in early October. It still is the strangest thing to go from a farmer working with a hoe on a quarter hectare to a person operating a 50 foot combine through 250ha of wheat in the same day.

WATER SHORTAGE HITS COPPERBELT

Copperbelt like many other districts in the country has experienced low water levels ever recorded with most perennial streams and wells drying up. Farmers in the countryside have expressed worry over the water crisis as most of their livestock depend on streams and wells for their water. Farmers have to walk long distances to fetch for water.  Others have resorted to drive to nearby towns to draw water in drums for their livestock, and for domestic use. A Mr. Mwale of Mufulira Murundu farming area explained that for the first time, he has witnessed a perennial stream drying up. "This is very sad, my animals are dying, vegetables completely wilting" Mr Mwale lamented. 

Meanwhile, a group of farmers in Ndola have mobilised themselves and have requested the regional office to assist in finding a borehole driller and negotiate the prices so that they can have boreholes in their farms as a measure to mitigate the water crisis. And a named borehole driller has since been approached and negotiations are currently underway.

Good thing climate change is just a myth ... right? More like what my friend Rolf Shenton says; Zambia's capacity to absorb rain is being destroyed as forests fall to charcoal and farms.

KATETE DC DISSOLVES ERRING CAC COMMITTEE

The District Commissioner for Katete district has dissolved the Camp Agriculture Committee (CAC) for Chilembwe Agricultural Camp after discovering that the CAC committee and the Camp Extension Officer could not account for k 20,000.00 contribution made by Cooperatives and other farmers groups for CAC activities. The CAC committee could not also account for 138 packs of fertilizer under the Farmer Input Support Program (FISP) which were allocated to the agricultural camp. During the meeting held on 6^th November 2015 the area Councilor for Chimwi Ward appealed to the DC through the DACO to consider replacing the Camp Extension Officer.

Typical FISP ... usually it doesn't get reported.

E-VOUCHER CARDS DISTRIBUTION ON COURSE

The distribution of FISP e-voucher in Mumbwa district has so far gone well with over 75% of the cards already issued to beneficiary farmers. More than 12,000 cards have been issued to the beneficiaries against the intended 16,239 beneficiaries as the exercise continues.

As usual, behind schedule ... 

At the same meeting last week, I was somewhat surprised by the tacit, subtle resistance to the e-vouchers, which have been in play by FAO, CFU, hell, even Concern since 2007ish. It's a relatively simple thing ... you get a credit card sized voucher with a fixed value, take it to a participating agrodealer, and redeem inputs against the value of that card ... agrodealers get paid fairly quickly, and there's zero transport costs to the government (the farmers collect the voucher). However, standard FISP distribution is a powerful expression of gift-giving (go read My African Friends and Money Matters) that accrues repute to the giver. Power. That's the tall beer. I have it figured they want it to fail because it deprives them of that power.

However, the exercise has faced a minor challenge in one agriculture camp of the district where a few farmers could not collect their cards due to some unexplained religious conviction. The farmers who could not pick up the cards belong to Mpusu Agriculture Camp north of Mumbwa district.

Huh...

FARMERS’ REPRESENTATIVE CALLS FOR INTRODUCTION OF THE FISP E-CARD IN ALL DISTRICTS

Kabompo District Farmers' Association (DFA) chairman, George Munyingu, has called on government to extend the use of the FISP e-voucher card to other districts in the country. Speaking during the Kabompo DFA executive committee meeting on Wednesday this week, Mr. Munyingu said the use of the e-card will bring sanity in the implementation of the FISP exercise. He further added that the use of the e-card will eliminate a lot of discrepancies currently being experienced under the FISP program. He cited some farmer organizations which do not have proven membership but are receiving huge amounts of input packs thereby disadvantaging real farmer organisations.

Read that vs. the bit above. Farmers like it because they are more in control of when they get their inputs.

FISP BENEFICIARY FARMERS STILL WAITING FOR SEED INPUTS

All the districts in North Western B region have not received the allocated seed. A check at the storage sheds in various districts found warehouse managers still waiting to receive the seed. The affected districts are Chavuma, Kabompo, Manyinga and Zambezi.

Another reason to switch to e-cards ... waiting on other people sucks.

Remember the poor.

10th November, 2015 - ZNFU Weekly Update and Agro-watch

The views expressed on this blog are the author's own, and do not reflect the views of Concern Worldwide. 

Bits and pieces of the weekly farm news that's fit to use from Agro-Watch, vol. 44 and the Friday Brief. As usual, my additions in red:

Agro-Watch 

Highlights [maize]

• Malawi’s grain marketing agency, ADMARC, adjusted their maize selling prices end of October from 3,000 Malawian Kwacha to K4, 000 per 50Kg bag (approx.US$7.19/50kg bag or Zambian Kwacha 93.5/bag). Maize prices have been rising on the Malawian market due to sporadic supplies with other private traders quoted to be selling for as high as K8, 000/ 50kg bag (≈US$14.38/50kg bag or ZMW187 per 50kg bag).
• With the close of the FRA maize purchase season on 31st October 2015, Zambia’s food reserve agency purchased a total of 596,081MT during the 2015/16 marketing season. Original target was 500,000MT, but their overruns were far less than last year's spectacular 400,000MT purchase ... I suspect the deepening currency crisis and the govt.'s lack of money have as much to  do with this as the smaller amounts available on the market. Pressure has continued to mount from the Millers for government to release maize on the local market at subsidized prices to lower [mealie-meal] prices . They are pressured by Zambia's very substantial urban population (and consequently, the Government ... everyone remembers that Kaunda's downfall was hastened by unavailability of food). So many Zambians purchase mealie-meal, it gets a bit worrisome. The initial indication that maize would be offloaded at K85/50kg bag has been put on ice as government reviews the matter further.
• Indicative local offer prices were averaging ZMW1.6/Kg with the highest offer pegged at ZMW2.3/kg on the ZNFU market price information system.
• Maize mealie-meal 25kg in Mayukwayukwa is selling at K130~140; 10kg is K50~55.

Friday Brief

CENTRAL REGION

METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT CAUTIONS FARMERS

Meteorological Department in central province has urged farmers to approach this season with caution as weather forecasts are showing normal to below normal rains. Felix Imbwae who is the Provincial Meteorological officer for Central Province said this when ZNFU officers visited him at his office. He further said that farmers should consider planting drought resistant varieties and early to medium maturing ones. And Mr. Imbwae has urged farmers to go for conservation farming practices as they remain the best option in times of less rainfall. I wonder which practices; I've realized recently that almost everyone sees (literally) CA as planting basins. Soil cover is an afterthought, and crop rotation an outright puzzle. 

HEAVY DOWNPOUR SENDS FARMERS IN PANIC MOOD

Heavy rains that characterized most parts of central province have sent farmers mostly small scale into serious panic. The start of the rain season has found most farmers unprepared due to challenging circumstances. Funny, it starts pretty much the same time every year. How did this catch farmers unawares? Some farmers have indicated that they expect a challenging farming season due to high inputs prices and delayed FRA payments. Which of course, you can't do without ... right? Meanwhile, some farmers have complained that tractor owners have also taken advantage of the prevailing situation and adjusted prices for Land Tillage upwards. Last year most farmers in the province were charged between k300 to k400 for land tillage per hectare but now it’s between K500 to K650. Ah, the "Dollah" strikes again. Price of everything has climbed, sort of like a run on the bank. Everyone complains when the kwacha (and prices) rises in response to the dollar as they have the same amount of kwacha, albeit it is worth much less.

EASTERN REGION

PETAUKE FARMERS BEMOAN HIGH FERTILIZER PRICES

Farmers in Petauke District have lamented the rapid escalation in fertilizer prices and have since asked the government to intervene in the matter. Not so much the independent yeoman farmers of the Jefferson ideal. Farmers have described the situation as a hindrance to the growth of agriculture sector in the country, adding that if the situation is left unchecked then many rural households will languish in poverty because many of them depend on farming. Again, is there no way to do it without fertilizer? Fertilizer prices have increased by over 100% from last year’s prices. A bit of a stretch, but yes, it has gone up at least 50%. A check by ZNFU in the district found that D Compound was trading at k 420.00 while Urea at K 375.00. I'm surprised it's not worse ... in the West, these are more like K450 and K400.

KATETE RECEIVES HEAVY RAINS

Katete district this week on 3^rd of November 2015 received heavy rains. The rains which lasted for over 3 hours covered the entire district and this caused panic among farmers especially those that have not yet received their payment from the Food Reserve Agency where they supplied their maize. Not much structural agency assigned to farmers, but you see them stuck in the same ruts all the time. Always grow maize. Always sell maize to FRA. Always delayed wait for FRA to pay. Further delays waiting for FISP to arrive. Repeat annually for 8 years. Similarly Nyimba and Petauke districts also received some measured quantities of rains in most parts. 

NORTHERN REGION

FARMERS ANXIOUSLY AWAIT FISP DISTRIBUTION COMMENCEMENT

With the onset of rains, farmers in Mungwi are beginning get worried over the delay in the distribution of FISP inputs to various camps. The chairperson of Mungwi DFA, David Ng’andu has said that the delay in the distribution will negatively affect farming this season. And the DFA chairperson has expressed sadness (my heart does not go out to the better-off farmers who won't get subsidized inputs intended for the poor to whom my heart does go) at the reduced fertilizer allocation to the district at a time when the number of potential beneficiaries is increasing. [The] Government in Zambia is perceived by rural folks as a big yawning pocket full of money, largely because of its poor transparency in terms of how money is spent, and historically, Zambia's full-court press of socialism during the one-party state days. 

So far only Urea fertilizers have been delivered while D compound and seed have not yet been delivered to the district. That's helpful, they need Urea (top-dressing) around Christmas, but the seed and D needs to be around by two weeks ago. Again ... same thing every year. 

LUAPULA REGION

FARMERS BEMOAN DELAYED FRA PAYMENTS

Farmers in Mansa district have expressed disappointment over the delayed payments for the maize they supplied to the Food Reserve Agency (FRA).  The farmers have complained that the Agency had not adhered to the stipulated marketing modalities of paying them within two weeks after delivery of the commodity. Please tell me you notice the same theme I've noticed for over 8 years, and understand why I bemoan and am saddened by the state of farming in Zambia. 

November 2nd, 2015 - ZNFU Friday Brief, Week #44

The views expressed in this blog are the opinions of the author, and do not reflect the views of Concern Worldwide.

As I peer out the office window, I see what the collective corpus of Zambian agriculture has been waiting to see for a long time; darkness brought on by burgeoning dark clouds and the first breathe of cool air in months. Not 30 minutes I ran out to sow the small plot I've prepared next to the office with Crotalaria (sunnhemp, red and black) and Mucuna (velvet beans); the hope is that they will emerge quickly and overwhelm the other weeds, particularly the nasty couch grass (Cynodon dactylon), the bane of all fertile, tilled land on this new and ancient continent.

This first rain is as eagerly awaited by agriculturalists as I suppose it is by farmers; reason being is that the rural poor tend to be aware of the date, but understandably, fall into something of a lethargic mode due to the heat of October. "understandably" is my concession to the fact that when temperatures hit the low forties Centigrade (around 110 Fahrenheit), your capacity to think, let alone plan and work, is severely limited. The incipient rain breaks this slumber; people shift into high gear, looking for money for seeds, renting oxen / ploughs / tractors, digging ridges / basins (damn things are hard to dig when the soil's bone-dry and rock-hard), etc.

"Oh! the joy." Wrote Clark when  he saw the Pacific. An immense wind carried every dry leave, every loose piece of grass, every mote of dust was carried from west to east (odd direction for the wind to rise). At approximately 16:48 GMT, the skies opened ... and now it's lashing down at a 30 degree angle off vertical. Great relief not to have to water the garden for awhile, though I'm sure there will be issues with the sewerage tonight (things get hardened up and half the drains clog.

ZNFU Friday Brief, Week #44 (my comments in red)

ANNUAL INFLATION RATE HITS 6 YEAR RECORD

Zambia’s annual rate of inflation was recorded at 14.3 percent for the month of October 2015 by the Central Statistical Office. This means that on average, prices increased by 14.3 percent between October 2014 and October 2015.  This is above the September 2015 inflation rate of 7.7 percent. The last time Zambia’s annual rate of inflation was at similar levels was in August 2009.  According to CSO, the sharp increase in the October 2015 inflation rate was as a result of increase in prices of both food and non-food items. Transport recorded the highest price increments of 23.8 percent. The only consumer, price index (CPI) groups that did not record any price increment were housing, electricity, gas and other fuels and communication which were constant in comparison to the other month 

ZNFU APPEARS IN PARLIAMENT TO MAKE SUBMISSIONS ON THE EMPLOYMENT (AMENDMENT) BILL

The Zambia National Farmers’ Union (ZNFU) appeared before the parliamentary committee on Economic Affairs, Energy and Labour to make submissions on the Employment (Amendment) Bill on Thursday 29^th October 2015 at parliament buildings. The Union was happy that the Bill took on board key issues that ZNFU lobbied the Minister of Labour last year during stakeholder consultations. For example, the Bill provides for “seasonal employment” which is defined as employment under a contract of service where timing and duration of the contract is influenced by seasonal factors such as climate, agricultural or business peak cycle. This is good especially for members growing crops such as tobacco that has an 11 months business cycle. Further, the Bill also allows “casual employees” (I refer to them as the hunger serfs), and that this relates to a person whose employment is not permanent in nature; and does not require any skill in the performance of the work done for a period of 6 months.

However, the Union was concerned that employers under fixed term contract would still be required to pay service benefits (such as 3 months basic pay per year served on retirement, 2 months per year served on redundancy, e.t.c. on top of NAPSA service benefits. They have a legitimate beef here ... every month employers pay NAPSA (Natl Pension Scheme)   which is somewhat like Social Security; this  The Union noted that these service benefits are a liability to members as they are not accounted for in taxes because they are future expenses for employers.  In addition, many farmers in Zambia, especially emergent farmers, are not covered by collective agreements and will be unable to create jobs if they have to abide by the minimum wages and conditions of service Act.

I included this because most emergent farm labour is very under the table; the further out you go from the Hub, the more labour is paid in food. It's not a labour market; on the contrary, this year, there's more hungry mouths attached to those idle hands. We were talking to some farmers a few weeks back and they explained you get a basin of cassava for digging a quarter hectare (over half an acre), and that finding work had gotten harder and harder. Concern calls this hidden hunger; there is food around, but many can't get to it. 

October 8th, 2015 - An Ear of Maize Proper

(The views of the author are not those of Concern Worldwide)

This is week two of three weeks of Conservation Agriculture (CA) training to both our own staff, partner staff, and government extension officers. It's a welcome sign that the end to the hiring freeze in the camp staff in 2012 is starting to come to fruition; the back of the conference hall is peopled with young guys who are new to the game and want to make a real change.

However, it's a blast furnace outside in more ways than one; we hit 39C today (great for striding about the room, being the "CA Preacher" as one women called me), and the Zambia mealie-meal market, off the lease since 2013, has started to follow everything else on a upward trajectory, as reported by the Post today.

I refer again, as I always do, to the Zambian Coat of Arms (downloaded from Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coat_of_arms_of_Zambia#/media/File:Coat_of_arms_of_Zambia.svg):

Having learnt about one of the more obscure part of any coat of arms, e.g., the compartment (the landscape upon which the supporters stand) for this coat of arms is designated as: "Green earth, and an ear of maize proper".

An ear of maize proper. If you haven't grasped this by now, dear reader (hi Mom), an ear of maize proper is the common denominator in this country. It is the gantry in whose shadow all other foods and/or crops appear Lilliputian. And now that great green edifice is crumbling; cracks are shooting up the walls, the ground heaves, and mealie-meal hikes upwards.

Maize as a staple food is the foundation of Mazlow's [Zambian] Hierarchy in that physiologically, Zambians must consume maize to survive (the reach of Zea mays up to and possibly into Self-actualization are both scary and tangential). When mealie-meal climbs, a shockingly urbanized nation starts to grumble in ways that ZESCO's load shedding / tariffs hikes and climbing import prices have yet to plumb.

September 28th, 2015 - Presidential Address to Parliament (19th Sep)

The views expressed by the author are his alone and do not reflect the views of Concern Worldwide. 

Notes from ZNFU Agro-Watch, volume #37 (Sep 22nd) ... author's comments in red. 

Cost of Agricultural Inputs Making Zambia Uncompetitive:

H.E Edgar Lungu The Republican President, His Excellency Edgar C. Lungu, opened the 5th session of the 11th National Assembly on Friday 18th September 2015. In his maiden speech, the President stated that Zambia needed to capitalize on its resources in order to become a regional agricultural hub and a global exporter of processed agricultural products. Some of the salient point made, with respect to agriculture, in the 74 paged speech include:

• Zambia’s high cost of production needed to be addressed. The dependence on imported inputs is making the country’s agricultural produce uncompetitive. There is thus need for more investment in local manufacturing of agricultural inputs. My guess is that they are referring to fertilizers which are inherently costly due to the fact that Zambia has a) no oil [it comes off tankers from Dar-es-Salaam], and b) a limited capacity to produce nitrogenous fertilizers, which in lieu of better farming practices, are to the average farmer the equivalent of a powerful drug to an addict. Without fertilizers and hybrid maize (also largely pegged in dollars, which is currently killing my project), there is essentially little hope of a marketable surplus barring expenditure in land and labour resources.

• The piloting of the Electronic Voucher System in 13 districts under the Farmer Input Support Programme; Only about five years or so after they FIRST promised to use it ... wonder how it will go this time around? The idea is good, but disliked by local party politicians, as it deprives them of a major opportunity for "gift-giving" at the rural level. 

• Directive to the the ministers responsible for Finance and agriculture to come up with a mechanisation Programme for small-scale farmers working in Collaboration with the private sector and civil society. This is with the aim of making small-scale farmers more self-sufficient; Admirable, but always curious ... those who can afford mechanization typically use it; those who can't, don't. How will the private sector work around that? Also, how does that lend itself to self-sufficiency? 
• Government will bring about 5,000 ha of land under irrigation each year to mitigate against the effects of climate change. 
• The movement of the Department of Cooperatives to the Ministry of Commerce, Trade and Industry from the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock;
• Government plans to establish 13 milling plants nationwide to be managed by ZNS and Zambia Cooperative Federation (wait ... how will this help the private sector? A return to government-subsidized, artificially low-cost (and likely poorly run) milling companies will effectively subsidize consumption, pulling production along with it. Mono-cropping 25, crop diversity -10.
• Government plans on doubling the number of livestock breeding centers from the current 10 to 20 by 2023. The Breeding centers will be for mostly goats and sheep, targeting the huge goat and sheep market in the Middle East. Hope no one informs Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, South Sudan, Kenya, Ethiopia, Tanzania, or Kenya of this plan, as they are a bit closer and have in some cases, ocean access. Are we going to truck or fly these goats? 
• The Sanitary and Phyto-sanitary Standards should be strengthened and strictly enforced to ensure that agricultural produce being sold on the market are safe and of good quality. I would ask, what's in it for the farmer to achieve phyto-sanitary acceptable foods? 
• Government is in the process of establishing two fish hatcheries in each province in order to support growth of fish farming. Further, government will establish one community fish fingerling nursery in each District and also train 1,400 fish farmers in fish Feed production. This is with the target of the nation reaching fish self- sufficiency in the next three years through an annual production of 80,000 tons of fish from fish farming and 90,000tons from natural fisheries. Okay, I hope they find some new rivers or lakes out there, because Luapula is fished out and the Barotse Floodplains are not that far behind. I also wonder if they are going to revamp Dept. of Fisheries into a going concern.

The republican President further stated that the country would soon ratify the Tripartite Free Trade Area which would make Zambia part of the largest Free Trade Area in Africa and that the nation was part of the negotiations for the Continental Free Trade Area which would offer a bigger market access to Zambian Entrepreneurs and innovators.

On Energy, H.E Chagwa Lungu indicated that despite the low water levels in Lake Kariba and the Kafue River the power shortage has been occasioned by Zambia's inability over the years to attract new investment in Electricity generation on account of the low electricity Tariffs. Government hopes that the revision of retail tariffs upwards from an average of 5.64 to 10.35 cents per kilowatt hour will attract more investments in the energy sector, particularly for those interested in renewable energy sources such as solar, wind and waste-energy projects. Hmmm ... those low tariffs purchased a lot of nice cars over at ZESCO. Also wonder if it's the slipping exchange rate which puts import costs (of which much of ZESCO infrastructure is reliant upon) way to high for them to afford conductors, transformers, etc.

In addressing the concerns over Zambia slipping back into a debt trap, the Republican President stated that the Zambian economy has grown from a US$ 3 Billon GDP in 2005 to a US$28 billion today and that the country was well within the acceptable international threshold of 40% of the Gross domestic product. He further stated that the nation had borrowed for long term investments that would spur national growth. In other words, China needs to get back on-track and purchase copper at $6,000/ton or we're in for it.

The theme of the President’s address was “Embracing a Transformational culture for a smart Zambia Now.” No time like the present.