January 1st, 2016 - A Bleak Start to the New Year

The views expressed on this blog are the author's alone and do not reflect the views of his employer, Concern Worldwide.

Lusaka remains cursed by sunshine on this dawn the New Year in Zambia. Sitting up last night with friends listening to Zambians shooting off fireworks in the revelry, we looked up a sky chock full of stars and reflected on the oddity of that; typically, this time of year is cloudy, gray, cool, rainy, etc. Instead, we've had bright, blue, hot, dry, etc. To this day, I still cannot puzzle out the workings of the ITCZ, but the best I can figure is that current ENSO (el Nino) is holding the zone in a kinked, stable position ... this means that the frontal boundary (for lack of a better word) moist air that brings rain is not moving south from a roughly in a east-west line centered on Kabwe. Though Zambia historically has a increasing rainfall gradient as you move south-to-north, this year it seems to be less of a smooth linear, and rather a sudden step from too dry to too wet; further, the dry areas are mostly in the West and South.

This has piled on to the crummy rainy season those same areas had in 2014/2015 (which I can now safely refer to as "last year's season"). Most of those areas, particularly in Western Province, were long-ago declared "disaster drought" (GRZ, inclusive of nearly every district survey other than Mongu) or "stressed" (in the terminology of FEWSNET). My friends in the southwestern arc of the Upper Zambezi (e.g., Kazangula, Mwandi, Sesheke) along the Botswana and Namibian border told me over the Holidays that there aren't many words left to describe how bad it is there; ominously, their planting rains never really started, so much of their maize is already dead before the V3 stage. Long and short, people are desperately hungry and have been for quite some time; unfortunately, this year seems to be shaping up to be a bad one in both buLozi and buTonga.

Funny enough, no one seems to notice. There's really been nothing in the papers, including the Post, which has turned its back on the "Real PF" and returned to its virulently anti-ruling party roots; nothing from the donor community; nothing from the government outside of what anecdotal evidence suggests is entirely stochastic; nothing from the Barotse Royal Establishment. It's a wall of silence that is deafening in its sheer immensity, behind which despairing people are perched on a precarious cliff of hunger; it's only so much time before the West and South face the full-blown spectre of starvation. Those same people's (at least strong and healthy enough to do so) efforts are fully in engaged in warding off that hunger with any means at hand, meaning the natural environment is taking the worst beating in years. The so-called "Fish Ban", the eponymous policy that forbids capture fishing of wild fish stocks in virtually all forms between December 1st. and March 1st, is now in its second year of being totally, even brazenly, ignored. Charcoal burning is so rampant that finding Julbernardia or Brachestygia specimens of any size within 50km of Mongu is now an impossibility. Logging has increased exponentially within the five years I have been in Western, particularly of the Guibourtia coleosperma (Zambezi rosewood, copalwood, false mopane) ... baulks measuring a meter square and at least 2.5 meters long are being hauled out of the Kalahari woodlands to the main road in at least four places that I observed last month. In that sense, the lack of capital is driving localized environmental degradation that exacerbates any potential global climate change, and kneecaps future generations ability to utilize those same resources.

And the poorer? The poorest? The single female mothers? The elderly raising a household of orphans? I see them each time I go out in the field; their eyes betray the slow panic that is the constant twinge of hunger that is never dissipated and rarely dulled. Waking up dizzy and out of sorts, wondering where to look for some daily labor to try to feed their family, hoping that they can manage the work on the one to three hours of available energy they have, leaving nothing in the tank for tilling their own land. How do you plan in that state? How do you adopt a new technology? And yet they remain, cursed with the Zambian trait of waiting on government, hoping the truck comes their way, hoping they get a food pack.

I distinctly remember the late President Michael Sata declaring early in his presidency that where there was hunger, there could be no justice. It is my fervent hope that the government will recall that statement and see fit to be just.

Dec. 18, 2015 - Ruminations on CA (my day-to-day)

The opinions expressed below are the author's alone and do not express the views or opinions of his employer, Concern Worldwide.

Just wanted to plop this down, this are some of the things I ponder on the given day-to-day following visits to beneficiaries. It has been an interesting five years, moving one's head from discussions at this level to the visceral day-to-day of the everyman and everywoman farmer. Putting them together is what makes my head spin. 

Sorry for the delay, power has been an issue.

As per D’s email and our discussion, question #2 around the adoption of CA is very interesting but very large, particularly given that CA is three principles that are something of a goal for farmers to achieve by what could be diverse paths (e.g., there are numerous ways to achieve minimum tillage). However, often what tangles up the question of adoption for many CA promoters is why aren’t people adopting “our” way of achieving minimum tillage, soil cover and crop rotation.

A case in point: Why don’t more non-beneficiaries dig basins? Don’t people generally see the improvements from the practice on another’s field? Currently, we target a specific group of beneficiaries (the extreme poor), they receive trainings and inputs, then dig basins in which they apply the inputs and plant the seeds we’ve given them. Typically, those beneficiaries will carry on some of the practices we promote over the longer term, particularly around digging basins for maize production. However, most non-beneficiaries won’t dig basins … as far as we can tell, they are waiting for participation in the programme (e.g. the attention given to beneficiaries in terms of inputs and training). We noted this week that our even better-off lead farmers have almost no concept of “projects”, project lifetime or the hard facts around funding … consequently, they are often confused why projects come to an end before the entire community has been included in a project. Put shortly, we need to examine our approaches to promoting CA as well as the barriers to what we are promoting, otherwise our promotion in and of itself may be a barrier to adoption.

To put a fine point on it, we know that there are considerable barriers that hinder the adoption of certain practices, even within beneficiaries (I know it is not attractive to Accenture, but the preliminary work we’ve done with consumption support suggests that not only are most people food insecure during the farming season, they operate on such an empty tank that it’s amazing they dig any basins). However, I think what we need to take a longer view of:

a.       The various farming systems, landscapes, etc. (agroecology) to understand primarily why people do what they currently do and what would be the most appropriate CA-related interventions;

b.      How knowledge and information is shared among people (e.g., group, individual, parent to child, etc., etc.)

c.       How to approach (a) utilizing those knowledge networks (b) to plan and design your programme. 

As for research question #3, there’s parts that I think are extremely valuable in a business case, which my brain boils down to primarily “Money invested in farmer < Money realized by farmer” and secondarily as “Farmers doing CA GHG emissions < Farmers not doing CA GHC emissions”. We generally would see that, but we have to assume (as is sadly the case now in Western Province) that food aid is not reaching most of our communities; from what I hear on the ground, relief packs are trickling in, but packs are being split between two families. However, we do know that most of our farmers are net buyers of food and/or engage in daily labour “piecework” in hopes of achieving their daily bread. If we’re looking at return on investments, I feel we need to consider those as outcomes vs. an abstract measure of food aid (e.g., does an investment in a farmer in CA mean they spend less money on food and less on piecework in the next season.

Another point on the GHGs specifically to the Zambia, much of the impact of last years’ drought was the sharp uptick in charcoal production across the southern half of the country, which is significant for a country with one of the top five deforestation rates in the world. There is something of an argument as to whether charcoal production is demand-driven or supply-driven given our issues with ZESCO, but I would posit that most farmers who don’t have to make charcoal would not make charcoal, but have little other option in light of their HH needs for food, school fees, etc.  Long and short, what would a reduction in charcoal burning do to our GHG balance / emissions?

Lastly, I would narrow down the scope of the first bullet because we need to be cognizant of the difference between economic demographic levels and how that might influence the opportunity costs, rates of return, etc. What we’re picking up (and is a good example of “everything is obvious [once you know the answer]”) from our consumption support pilot is that crop diversification (and derived from that, rotation) is hindered by lack of seeds on one hand, but also the simple mathematics of hunger on another … e.g., when you have roughly two hours of kilojoules available, you focus all of those on your crops that will provide the most kilojoules (maize and cassava). What I’m saying is that I’d rather we avoid repeating the studies I’ve read that look at “CA” vs. “conventional ag” ceritas paribus, e.g. one that is independent of place, and is not cognizant of a household’s capability to measure and make long-term decisions.

Sorry for going on at length.

July 21st, 2015 - YA-BAA!! Load Shedding and deforestation

Not surprisingly, the load shedding by the Zambia Electricity Supply Company (ZESCO) is having something of a cultural effect; if someone is dozing, it is "load shedding". The car not starting: load shedding. Slow service: load shedding.

There was a good depiction of the double-whammy people got last week from Choklit over at the Post newspaper, which was having a frenzy over the sitting government ... they are now full-on over the load shedding, though I am puzzled how government could fix that one (e.g., they would literally have to make rain happen five months early).

The most worrying prospect for me over the same is the amount of charcoal burning that rural people are engaging in due to the increased use of it in towns. The introduction and surprisingly fast implementation a few years ago of pre-paid (e.g., "pay-as-you-go") electricity meters by the same ZESCO started an increase in the use of charcoal in urban kitchens (typically where meters are located). The ability to make budget estimates on the spot likely switched any number of people away from electric for cooking or heating water, which are the most expensive in terms of power usage. Also, charcoal has some heating utility that electric generally lacks (yes, it is Africa, but Lusaka sits at 3,600 - 3,800 feet above sea level; trust me, it gets chilly). However, the increased lack of power and the irregular supply, particularly around dinner, has driven the multitudes straight into the arms of charcoal. Needless to say, the price has reached around K90 ($12.00USD) per standard bag in the trading centers that ring the approaches to town, meaning the rural poor with the capability are pretty much going to eschew other activities to make ("burn") charcoal.

July 10th, 2015 - ZNFU Notes

Lately this has been making the rounds on social media

The guy in charge of load shedding at ZESCO:

I find it somehow fascinating that Homer was chosen, but it's somehow appropriate ... ZESCO's in a bit of an overwhelming situation where they can't fake it and make it.

The immediate issue is due largely to the poor rains the past rainy season vs. power demand. However, others I've spoken blame it on the short-term thinking chronic of parastatals (e.g., government run utilities) ... power generation capability of anything other than household scale (itself the realm of solar) in Zambia is still based entirely on rather dated hydro facilities, and that ZESCO is at fault for not following up on these opportunities in the past ... it means our forests will take an almighty bigger beating for charcoal as the farmers who were shorted by the same rains scramble to make up for lost money by turning on the forests. It may also push some positive change ... more fuel-efficiency, diversity of sources, etc. In the case of Conservation Agriculture, these are great years for getting farmers on board with the technology; it's literally a "join or die" mentality. It's either adopt CA or don't have food ... particularly with another ENSO event looming (see below):

*************************************************
Excerpts from the ZNFU Weekly Agro Watch (Volume 27)
*************************************************
El Niño threatens the start of 2015/2016 season in the region

The US Geological Survey has suggested a greater possibility of an El Niño by the start of the 2015/2016 season as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) continue across most of the Pacific Ocean continue to rise. Based on historical trend analysis, El Niño conditions would likely result in below-average rainfall. In previous El Niño years, countries affected include, southern parts of Zimbabwe, southern parts of Malawi, northeastern South Africa, and southern and central Mozambique. Based on recent experiences during the 2014/15 season (when similar positive SST conditions were predicted) several areas in the region ended up experiencing a late start of season and erratic rains during the October to December period, resulting in below-average rainfall. However, it should be noted that in some El Niño years, including the 1997/98 season, the region received above-average rains and above-average harvests.

MAIZE

• Zimbabwe is facing maize deficit of over 900,000 metric tons according to Fewsnet assessment in July 2015.
• Malawi, Congo DRC and Angola are facing maize deficits and will rely on informal Zambian maize grain imports between July and December 2015.

Bio-char Correspondence, A

Hi D -

I've heard your name a billion times because many Zambians tend to think all Americans know one another; however I am familiar with your work with XXXXXX/ XX XXXX and have eaten your peanut butter and breakfast cereal very often. My name is Carl Wahl and I work for Concern Worldwide in Western Province heading up the Conservation Agriculture projects in Mongu, Kaoma, and Senanga (plus many new districts we're not sure of yet). 

I would love to hear more about your bio-mass / charcoal project. Are you trying to do distributed or centralized production? We (NGI, CeLIM, and myself) are working on various ways to make cheap and clean sources of charcoal; NGI and I are more interested in bio-char as a soil amendment because of our incredibly sandy soils; CeLim through Caritas and the Mongu Diocese are looking for ways to make sustainable charcoal. 

Currently, I'm been banging around with a TLUD system using a very slightly modified 55 gallon drum. Great if you have a uniform product of sufficient size to ensure airflow (e.g. bamboo or pigeon pea stems), but I think you'd need some forced air and a good draft for things like rice husks / sawdust. The big thing with smaller diameter feedstock is that it's hard to get good combustion of the gases driven of by the pyrolysis ... without that, you get a very smoky (and GHG-wise a very dirty) burn. 

Another thing I'm likely going to pilot at Kasisi in the next month or two is a double-drum system, e.g. a smaller diameter drum filled with feedstock upside-down inside a 55-gallon drum; in the airspace between the drums, you pack in a dry fuelsource that "bakes" the feedstock in the inner drum, eventually flaring off the volatiles in a relatively clean process. However, you need to gather additional biomass to get the process going. 

One thing we have identified for sure with the CeLim folks: making briquettes from bimass feedstock using an extruder and then making the charcoal hasn't worked very well, as the charring process weakens the briquettes and makes a lighter density, cold-burning (relatively) product. We'd like to figure out a way to make the char first, crush the char, mix with an adherent (e.g., shredded and boiled cassava), and then extrude.

Blah-blah-blah. Would enjoy meeting up with you sometime and chatting about what worked in XXXXXXX province as we did some of the same stuff in Senanga. 

Best,

Carl 

The First Rain

It rained hard on Saturday night ... I can't say for how long, because I kept flitting in and out of sleep.
In my bouts of waking, I would listen to the pups mewl (they can't really bark or howl yet, thank God) in response to the lashing rain. That sounds really hard, leaving the four of them out in the elements, but I will be giving them away to people who have even less sympathies for canines. The dogs will, as they say here, get used.

The rain, though too early for planting, was opportunely timed for me. In July, I dug 20-some lines of planting basins in my largish backyard in an attempt to show empathy with the beneficiary farmers to whom I'm responsible. Unfortunately, as our soil has a sand (large grain) composition of 90-95%, meaning it's like digging hole in a beach ... they tend to not retain any shape for long due to wind, the looseness of the soil, the  packs of dogs that transit through my backyard, etc. So, all my holes had somehow slumped, and I haven't had time to put anything in them (in terms of organic inputs).

The hard rain was opportune because it hardened up the soil enough for me to dig out the basins early Sunday morning and backfill half of them with the charcoal (bio-char) I've been making in a piecemeal fashion since June. I say half, as I want to do some side-to-side comparisons of the growth of two or three purchased maize varieties:

• A hybrid [Pannar 53]
• An open-pollinated variety OPV [ZamSeed 521]\
• A mixed bag of traditional varieties [mbonyi a sizo])

I'm not sure if my charcoal will last, but I may extend the experiment to the other half of my plot, where I intend to grow four or five varieties of beans:

• Haricot beans
• Sugar beans (Pan 148)
• Pinto beans
• Velvet beans
• Jack beans

And groundnuts:

• Natal common (more common in Southern Zambia)
• Chishango (what we promote with our farmers)
• An unnamed white variety
• MGV4 (a red variety)

Though it's not a scientific experiment, it will be something to look at down the line.