The rainy season tends to (at least in my short Zambian memory) blows itself out in an apocalyptic death rattle, swinging with both arms as it collapses. After nothing but sprinkles for five days, we we hit with what I can only describe as a blizzard-like rain storm. It was raining so hard and in so many directions, that it was impossible to see to the far side of the highway. The monstrous stump of the mungon'go tree directly in front of the office divested itself of one of its few remaining branches in a crack and a thump; thankfully, the mother that sells "talk-time" (pay-as-you-go cell phone time) broke for cover well before it flattened her pasteboard stand.
This was a suitable metaphor for how agriculture in Zambia can be ... things are floating along okay, and then, calamity. Too much of the farmers' maize that made it through the February drought undoubtedly got flattened by the intense convective winds this storm brought with it.
A similar calamity happened two weeks ago, though not necessarily an act of God; the Food Reserve Agency (FRA) posted its prices for selling of maize and rice last week. It bears mentioning that the FRA is a government agency that is by design and nomenclature intended to ensure food security in Zambia; it serves as the primary agent for purchasing maize from small-scale [subsistence] farmers and stockpiles this maize for the "short" months immediately preceding harvest-time in May/June. Considering that FRA sets the rules for importation and exportation of maize, Southern and Eastern Africa's majority staple, it wields something of a big stick in agriculture here.
One major headache for agronomists / ag. economist types is the politicization of maize in Zambia through the FRA. As my previous posts have mentioned, maize is a big deal here. Maize is everywhere. Maize is food. Maize is the crop you grow if you are any kind of farmer. Part of the reason, though, that farmers grow maize in the contemporary context is that the FRA sets maize prices artificially high to "help" small-scale farmers; for the past two years, it has been around K65,000 / 50 kg (roughly $4.25/bushel). This is a pan-territorial price, meaning that at any FRA depot / collection point in Zambia, the payment for a 50kg bag of maize is the same. This price is set regardless of location, yield, external prices, time; during the maize-buying exercise period (July - Dec) the price is fixed at this rate.
One might say, "Hey, that's a middle-of-the-road price ... $4.25 a bushel; not too great, but not bad." Ah, but the hidden expenses! This maize is stored (no small feat in a tropical climate) at government expense. It is moved around (again, no small feat using LDC infrastructure) at government expense. And now, it appears that it will be sold at government expense ... the sale price of maize at the depots across the country is K50,000 / 50 kg ($3.05 / bushel).
To put this in perspective, FRA buys maize at roughly K15,000 to K20,000 higher than local market rates during the harvest season; it is now selling at the same level below market prices in the "hunger season." Really good for the farmers, who need the dough then and the maize now; not to mention the rest of the populace.
Conniptions for my fellow numbers-based folks ... how can you sell at such a blatant deficit after incurring a mountain of storage and transport expenses? Ah, but you must not forget ... it is an election year.
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